Lin Yuan
Since 2018, the United States and North Korea have held three summits, but they have failed to resolve huge differences between the two parties.With the global coronary virus epidemic, the fourth US -North Korea summit may be held when the US -North Korea summit is not far from the end and the U.S. election is not far away?
On June 30 this year, South Korean President Moon Jae -in said that the country will make every effort to promote a face -to -face dialogue before the US -DPRK.In this way, the possibility of the US -DPRK summit is once again concerned about the world.The New Summit is not first proposed by the United States or North Korea, but by South Korea. This should be regarded as a new newly -made newly -made new contact firm in North Korea.effort.Some Korean media criticized Wen Zaiyin's thoughts like heaven and night, and his words seemed to be more cautious.
As far as President Trump is concerned, his re -election is obviously in a state of reverse wind.The US -DPRK Summit is difficult to expect a major breakthrough, but it may not be reduced or even bonus.Therefore, compared with North Korea, the United States may have a little positive attitude towards the summit.However, whether the United States will have subsequent actions, it depends on how Trump himself evaluates, that is, to take the time to attend the US -DPRK summit, whether it will help the election more compared with the continued campaign in China.
In North Korea, he was unexpected and his attitude towards the New Summit was cold.On July 4, Cui Shanji, the first director of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of North Korea, gave a conversation, pointing out that it was necessary to sit with the United States.The DPRK believes that the consensus reached by the United States will not take the consensus reached by the heads of talks, and insists on pursuing hostile policies for North Korea.
As for the intentions of the United States, the DPRK judged that DPRK -US dialogue was used as a tool for dealing with the political crisis, and he wanted to move the DPRK with negotiation, but the DPRK was not interested in it.Cui Shanji's wording is tough. If he wants to judge the prerequisite for the North Korea and North Korea summit from his conversation, at least the United States will no longer adhere to the hostile policy of the North Korean North Korean.
Quan Zhenggen, the director of the US Affairs Bureau of North Korea, issued a conversation after three days. In addition to reiterating the basic position expressed by Cui Shanji, he also attacked the Wen Zaiyin government and criticized his so -called arbitration efforts.In fact, the US -DPRK summit talks will not acknowledge (even disgusting) South Korea's status as an arbiter regardless of whether or not, nor will Wen Zaiyin's efforts made by the ease of the Korean Peninsula.
On July 10, Kim with the first deputy minister of the Central Committee of the North Korean Workers' Party issued a long story, which was mixed with many information.Analysis from her conversation, North Korea should not completely close the door of the summit, although she publicly showed a lack of interest in the summit.After all, North Korea has formally proposed a new policy of consolidating the national nuclear war. In this way, it is more reluctant to concessions on the North Korean nuclear issue than the previous two years.Kim Jong -un also said in his speech on July 27: Since we have reliable and effective self -defense nuclear curb thermal contribution hellip; hellip; our country's security and future will always be reliable.
From the above -mentioned conversation between Gold and Zheng, the prerequisite for the US -DPRK summit includes the United States should revoke hostility.Kim Tengzheng pointed out that the basic theme of the US -DPRK consultation in the past was that there were no measures to lift sanctions, and now it is necessary to change it to revoke the hostile to restart the discussion of the United States and the United States.This is actually a unilateral request of North Korea. North Korea is not unprepared to the United States, but Kim and Zheng will not explicitly talk about this.
As for the hostility of the United States to North Korea, Kim and Zheng mentioned that it criticized the human rights situation of North Korea and included North Korea in the list of supporting terrorist countries.EssenceDifferent from (part) lifting economic sanctions or publishing a final declaration declaration, the United States seems to be able to make concessions strategically, and these concessions are actually reversible.However, assuming that the United States makes these concessions, can the US -DPRK summit be held smoothly and achieved actual results?These are still problems.
It is also necessary to point out that in the 2018 Singapore Summit or the Hanoi Summit in 2019, North Korea wants to promote it before the meeting, and has made important efforts for this.But now North Korea does not want to continue to work hard for the new summit; if the United States really wants to promote it, it is necessary to overcome some major obstacles and even make necessary concessions.
As for the media in South Korea, the US -DPRK summit should not think about it before the US election, it seems a bit arbitrary.Politics is the art of possibility. In a sense, diplomacy is also the art of possibility.Even Jin and Zheng have not completely denied the possibility of the US -DPRK's heads of talks. After all, Trump's judgment and determination to judge and determination are unpredictable; and the changes in the international situation on both sides of the Pacific Ocean are also unpredictable.
The author is a doctor of history, scholar travel
