When will China and the United States start war?With the increasingly upgraded upgrade of China in Trump's comprehensive strategic hostile action, it seems that it seems not very illusory.Now, Sino -US relations have appeared unprecedentedly unfriendly since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries on January 1, 1979, and there have been potential gunpowder flavors.
Between China and the United States, problems such as trade war, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South China Sea, Xinjiang, etc., are structural, involving the fundamental interests of China, and the United States will not retreat.Trump has now actively provoked serious incidents of asking China to close the Consulate General in Houston, which led to a major retreat from the two sides of diplomatic relations between the two sides.At the same time, the free sailing of the United States ships, including the double aircraft carrier combat group, clearly claimed that the South China Sea with sovereignty in China has become increasingly frequent.On July 26, a P-8A maritime patrol aircraft affiliated to the US Navy suddenly appeared in the East China Sea, only 76 kilometers from the Fujian coast.On the same day, the U.S. Navy Raphael Peral Tower was moved in the same waters and was only 100 nautical miles from Shanghai.The U.S. military also publicly stated that it will firmly assist Japan to respond to the situation of the Diaoyu Islands (Japan known as Jian Ge) according to Article 5 of the Japan -US Security Treaty.In the field of economy, trade and science and technology, the two -pronged approach to coordination and intimidation, together with the five -eye alliance and major developed market economies to jointly resist Huawei and comprehensively block China's development.
The United States has re -deployed the Asia -Pacific policy and global strategy for the United States.For example, the United States has actually been fully upgraded to Taiwan's bilateral relations between similar countries. Its primary strategic motivation is that Taiwan is an important part of the United States who can obstruct the rise of China and have more effort.Political genes are the same.It is reported that Alex Azar, the Minister of Health and Public Services, will lead the group to visit Taiwan in the next few days.The common belief is that the free and democratic society is the best model for protecting and promoting the health of the whole people.On the issue of China, the United States not only coordinated its domestic democracy and republics, but also provoked a considerable degree of hatred in their domestic people.
Sino -US relations have developed the worst mutation since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. This is by no means a sudden adjustment of the United States 'economic, political or foreign policy in China, but the United States' reconstruction of the future of the entire global strategy.At least three aspects: 1. For the CCP of the Chinese ruling subject and its ideology; 2. For the existing national governance system in China; 3. The comprehensive rise of China.Washington judged that according to China's current development momentum, if it is not intervened, not to mention that the United States' global overlord status is not guaranteed, and even the economic interests of the United States in the world will be greatly compressed.
In the 1970s, China and the United States established diplomatic relations with each other from the cold war opponent for the common interests of the former Soviet Union's expansion, marking the reconciliation of communist China and the Western capitalist world, changed the international strategic atmosphere, and greatly promoted the economic and trade between the two countries., Science and Technology, Culture, Finance and other aspects of exchanges and development.With the deepening of China's reform and opening up in the 1980s, the development of China and the United States in various fields brought huge real interests to the two countries, and rapidly developed a China and the United States.However, under the leadership of Trump ’s U.S. policy, the American politics, economy, science and technology, and military elites have achieved consensus. A wonderful plan with communism China as the core is being organized and implemented.
A series of policies in China in the United States actually means that Beijing's rejection of the concept of the Belt and Road Initiative and the construction of a community of human destiny in Beijing has advocated the concept of international economic and political development concepts.Trump once publicly stated that Xi Jinping was his enemy.It is already a statement of China: Different Tao is not the same.
Next, what the United States may take China to prohibit the Chinese Communist Party members from going to the United States, prohibit state -owned enterprises, state -owned assets enter the United States or have economic and trade relations with US -funded, comprehensively resistance, financial decoupling, and military friction with China in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea.Start sanctions against Hong Kong, etc.Washington is likely to have a serial plan for one -arrow and four sculptures against China: 1. Blocking China's scientific and technological progress and economic and trade growth; 2. Blocking the sovereignty of the South China Sea; 3. Let Hong Kong lose the status of the international free port and financial center;Taiwan, finally hijacked Taiwan to establish the country independently.By implementing these four serial goals, China will always be in the second and third -rate countries under the United States, becoming the raw material supply base and consumer market for the development of the United States for technology and economic and trade development.Washington is far -reaching.
Now, Sino -US relations may happen, including disconnection, because it is in line with the ambitions of the American elites.If China and the United States interrupt, although it is a double -edged sword, it must be China.1. The United States will inevitably cooperate with the Five -Eyes Alliance and its partner countries to deal with China. China is likely to lose the mainstream international environment of economic and social development quality and speed; 2. The United States may be in dangerTaiwan's hijacking independently; 3. The issue of Hong Kong will continue to plague the political situation of mainland China and the development of economic and trade and financial development to a certain extent; 4. Beijing (the Communist Party of China) will lose sufficient continuous influence on the international stage; 5. The United States may preset presetsIn the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and other regions, they actively develop military friction with China in order to disrupt China's development rhythm; 6. If this is the past, it may prompt China's existing governance order to change.
So, will China and the United States or have to have a military conflict?When will the war start?It should be said that this is a question that can be said or think about it.However, the decision makers of both China and the United States cannot be confused to allow a military conflict like the Korean War or the Vietnamese War, which is unlikely to occur in a situation like the Korean War or the Vietnam War.Between China and the United States, at most, it is possible to occur in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.First, China will definitely not take the initiative to provoke the war; second, if the United States insists on provoking military conflicts, such as involving the military operations that involve the unified Taiwan in the mainland or to abduct Taiwan independently, the Chinese government and the army may make it a fact that it may become a fact.Third, any form of military conflict, the United States will definitely not take any cheap.If Sino -US relations continue to deteriorate, the final decisive factor is not the existing politics and military forces in Washington or Beijing, but only the people's hearts of the two countries!
Since World War II, the United States has made great contributions to the adjustment and construction of international order.The United States leads the construction and promotion of the United Nations, the General Agreement of Customs and Trade, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the overall human rights maintenance of the world.It also has a corresponding high -quality development mechanism, which can be explained from both the formulation of the Constitution of the United States and the design of the political system.However, the global outlook of the Trump governance team has appeared in disruptive errors and even evil, and the greatness of the United States has re -established the greatness of the United States with the overall development interests of human beings, which will cause the United States to be unable to achieve the real greatness again, but more, but alsoIt is impossible to make it great.The development of the United States is inseparable from the development of other countries.
Trump saw that the trees did not see the forest. Even if he obtained re -election and continued to deepen China, let the US's economic and trade interests and military advantages continue to grow temporarily, but it was just sore.Trump cannot be a wise leader who has an important political status in the history of human development. His development pattern is too small and has been incompatible with the fundamental foundation of human life.In the United States, many people already think that Trump has not made the United States great again, but it is just pushing the United States to fail to make it a failure country.
Sino -US relations should avoid extreme thinking and subjective imagination.Sino -US relations are very realistic human international relations. No matter how the United States takes suppression, China's necessary rebound will inevitably cause losses in the United States.Human beings often only pay attention to concerns of their own existence and their needs, ignoring the existence and their needs of others. This is the root of most contradictions and conflicts.
There are no eternal enemies in the world, no friends forever, but only eternal interests.At that time, Sino -Soviet relations broke from friendship and Sino -US relations, from hostility to establishing diplomatic relations without exception.Of course, the conflict between the interests between the country must inevitably require those obstacles to the benefitThere are breakthroughs in a series of other related factors including ideology and governance methods.
The integration of global economy, trade, culture, education, development, and governance order is an inevitable trend of human life. It is impossible for anyone to be obstructed by anyone in any country.Objective reality (fate) has been determined.Trump's China and global policies have disobey the fundamental reality of human life. It is destined that it can only be a mirage and there will be no practical future vision.
China's development is now suffering from major external pressure due to the provocation of the United States.Next, China will face a variety of pressures, and even faces a series of challenges in the Belt and Road and the Belt and Road Initiative of the Belt and Road Initiative.The intensification of domestic social contradictions with the process of modernization of the state governance.China needs to quickly promote the modernization of domestic democratic politics and national governance under the global perspective.The international community also worked together to quickly break through the limitations formed by the international order for more than 70 years since the World War II. It completely excludes the illegal environment that can survive any country's subject to override above other countries and seek the development interests of other countries with non -contractual means., Effectively promote the modernization of the global governance system, and promote the civilized quality of all human life order.
The process of human development will eventually be clear. Free economic activities are the fundamental cornerstone of human life. Without full and free economic and trade activities, there will be no daily supply and satisfaction of human health, medical, food, education, culture, sports, and civilization.In the final analysis of human life, politics will eventually retreat and return to the secondary position of its as a service, rather than always overbearing overbearing.
(Author: Beijing Political Philosophy Scholar, Oxford University Belt and Road Initiative and Global Leadership Post doctors)
