Ferum: People's desires in vaccine development are not always realized, but they can make progress in anti -epidemic by developing new drugs and taking other intervention measures.

The author of this article is the director of the Global Health Group of the University of California, San Francisco,

It is generally believed that there will be some new type of coronary virus pneumonia (COVID-19, which is the 2019 coronary virus disease) vaccine to save us.This is impossible, but more importantly, it is dangerous to formulate the overall strategy of responding to the new crown epidemic based on this assumption.

In 1990, I presided over a ironic conference in London, that is, malaria: waiting for the vaccine (Malaaria: Waiting for the Vaccine).At that time, malaria continued to deteriorate, and many people believed that the reversal situation depends on the vaccine.Many years of research failed to produce effective products, but vaccists still have an incurable optimism.

After three decades and invested billions of dollars in the past 30 years, we have a vaccine with less effective effect and a short protection period.But we did not wait: we have a multi -pronged approach, develop new drugs and promote the mosquito net treated by pesticides.We made great progress.

We have made similar progress in preventing and controlling HIV and AIDS.In the 1980s and 1990s, we did not have effective weapons. People pinned their hopes on the vaccine, but despite a large amount of investment and scientific innovation, we still did not develop a vaccine.On the contrary, we have greatly improved cocktail therapy using anti -reverse virus drugs, which has a huge impact on mortality and spread.

The two lessons to be taken are that our desire for vaccine development is not always realized. Nevertheless, we can make great progress through developing new drugs and taking other intervention measures.

Our confidence in the new crown virus vaccine is driven by anti -narrative, and this narrative is also true.In addition to a kind of vaccine, the vaccines against spinal ash, measles, and other viral diseases have greatly improved human health.However, in 2021, it developed a safe and effective new crown vaccine and put it into a huge challenge.We don't know if natural infections will bring strong immunity.

If not, we will have trouble.Although science is not impossible to surpass the mother of nature, it is not easy.

There are currently more than 140 candidates for the new crown vaccine.Six of them have entered the final stage, that is, the three -phase test, which is very fast.Some of these vaccines have adopted new technologies not in existing vaccines.The large -scale investment is completely reasonable.

But we should not think that our efforts to develop vaccines will soon succeed, or they will succeed after all.It is also important that it is necessary to discuss what kind of vaccine will stand out in the early candidate vaccine.It will have partial protective effects like influenza vaccine in the short term, or is it like a measles vaccine, and has a high protective effect in life?

It is generally believed that vaccines will provide solutions for great popularity and save the world.Politburo and vaccine developers have motivated this view.However, this statement will be established only when the vaccine has a high efficiency, lasting protection period, and less harsh administration plan.It must also be able to create billions of drugs and transport, storage and management around the world.This product is unlikely to be available at the end of 2021 and may never be developed.

This should ring the alarm, indicating that it is necessary to formulate a coherent strategy of replacing blocking measures.Blocking can effectively reduce the number of new cases in a single day.But it is the most blunt public policy tool in history and cause huge social and economic attachment damage.All countries need a set of continuous improvement and adjustment measures to control the infection rate R value below 1, and at the same time allow most economic activities to restore.

East Asian countries have specified the direction: mandatory masks, pragmatically maintain social distance, adjust their habits and practices in the school, and be extremely hygienic. On the other handApplications and ground data data are used to implement these measures.There is no set of schemes suitable for all countries.We also need effective drugs to prevent the infection of high -risk people, treat mild cases in the community early, and let patients with severe illnesses survive.The speed of drug development will be faster than the development of vaccine. By the mid -2021, several new drugs may be released, or other uses of drugs can be used to treat new crown pneumonia; in fact, there are already two drugs.

Due to partially lifted the blockade measures without a replacement strategy, the number of new cases and deaths in the United States is increasing.The same destiny is waiting for Britain and is witnessed in some places in China.This is because we are guided to a certain extent and believe that the vaccine will be developed.

If cutting -edge science really develops a powerful vaccine in the next year or two, we will open champagne celebration, and then work on night to bring it to as many people as possible.But at the same time, a set of behavior and drug intervention measures will be able to save the lives of many people, and will strengthen our crisis that will come next.Preparation.

Translator/Pei Pan