Peng Shengyu: How can the United States re -condense how China responds to China

One of the trend of the author of the world's political economy under the global epidemic in the article published by the British Financial Times on May 12th is that after the epidemic, the United States may deeply reflect and consolidate the Global Alliance.

The United States is reflecting on the fact that the facts of re -condensing allies in the past are currently happening.

Many Western countries, what I don't like is Trump, not the United States, and the United States that trusts the same culture than trusting China.

The epidemic has indeed hit the United States. If the United States reflects, it will pay more attention to traditional allies.If Trump's re -election will pay more attention to the leading allies to respond to the rise of China. If Trump steps down, the US global policy may return to the Obama era and will pay more attention to allies. The power of the United States will exceed today.

First, the United States has been deeply reflection and is trying to consolidate global allies.

As the leader of Western countries, the United States has no doubt that this performance is also very bad.Whether it is the two -party system and the federal system, this time has become the resistance of the United States to respond to the epidemic.The personal interests of political parties are better than the reflection of national interests.The American institutional self -confidence and theoretical self -confidence have been severely hit in the epidemic.

The previous article published by Kissinger also believes that the epidemic will reshape the global pattern. I hope that the United States will take this opportunity to deeply reflect on the problems that have already existed and carry out comprehensive reforms to cope with the new world pattern.We don't underestimate the United States. After suffering major setbacks, the country's recovery and adjustment capabilities cannot be ignored.If Bayeng came to power, how successful will it be worthy of high attention to the condensation of the allies?After the epidemic, the possibility of reflection and strategic adjustment in the United States is great.

From many recent facts that have happened, we can see that the United States is re -condensing global allies, more importance to attracting allies than ever.

First look at Japan: Some members of the UK said that the five -eye alliance may accept Japan and become a six -eye alliance, thus expanding into a strategic economic relationship.Japan ’s Defense Aka Nakano has previously stated that if the Five Eyes Alliance invites Japan to join, Japan will welcome this decision.The Five Eye Alliance consists of five English countries outside Eurasia, which are the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand.It used to be the intelligence alliance. With the sharp deterioration of Sino -US relations recently, the five -eyed countries have tightened tighter to Washington than other Western countries.Highlight it

Looking at Europe again: On July 14, the British government decided to ban domestic mobile communications operators from buying Huawei 5G equipment since 2021, and to completely remove Huawei equipment in its 5G network by 7 years later in 2027.On the same day, US President Trump claimed that he had persuaded many countries to ban Huawei, including Britain and Italy.

According to the British media on July 9, local time, the two familiar people said that Italian Telecom will exclude Huawei outside the core 5G network equipment built in Italy and Brazil this month.You know, Italy still supports the use of Huawei 5G years ago.These changes occur after this epidemic.

According to Reuters, the French government has notified local telecommunications operators in July that if the Huawei 5G equipment is purchased, it will not renew the contract after its expiration; operators who do not use Huawei equipment at this stage should avoid using the equipment.The report pointed out that if France decides to implement relevant restrictions, it is equivalent to banning Huawei from participating in the French 5G network construction by 2028.

Let's look at the Asia -Pacific: Australia Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) exclusively reported on July 23 that Australian Asian warships encountered in the South China Sea last week with Chinese warships.The United States is the biggest pusher that encourages the militaryization of the South China Sea.On July 23, the United States and Australia's joint exercise in the South China Sea entered the last day.From the double aircraft carrier's military exercise to the frequent reconnaissance of fighter planes, the United States, which is not satisfied with the disruption of the situation alone, is trying to pull a anti -China Front in the South China Sea, and even the Indo -Pacific region.Australia has chosen to be a hardcore.

In recent years, Trump did not pay much attention to traditional allies, and did a lot of harm allies to ignore allies.

From the perspective of European allies in the United States, the US government has done a lot of things that harm the interests of allies in the name of the United States.When the United States decided to withdraw from the open sky treaty that has an important role in Europe and global security and stability, it was jointly opposed by 10 European countries.The New York Newspaper commented that from the perspective of European officials, the United States has become an indispensable allies into an unreliable ally.In order to maintain its own safety, in recent years, the establishment of the European army and building a European defense integration has become increasingly higher, and it has frequent actions in promoting independent defense.French President Macron said that Europe cannot rely on the United States.

In fact, the contradiction between the United States and Europe in the security field is only a refraction of the deepening of cracks in the United States and Europe.In recent years, the United States and Europe have been constantly in the fields of energy, military expenses, foreign trade and other fields, and have been on the issue of unilateralism and multilateralism.Since the epidemic, what the United States does has disappointed European allies: the United States has repeatedly purchased or cuts out of epidemic prevention supplies ordered by allies such as Germany and France.Initiating 301 survey Hellip; HelloP; as the French Speech News commented, the Trump administration's behavior has caused more and more criticism and disgusting, and the gap between Europe and the United States has increased.

U.S. President Trump has ordered 9,500 U.S. soldiers from Germany to reduce the number of people from Germany by September, reducing the number of people nearly 1/3, and at the same time, the number of US troops in Germany is limited to less than 25,000 from the current maximum of 52,000.Germany is the headquarters of the United States Command in the United States. Trump's move reflects more and more structural problems between virtues, and the contradiction between virtue in many fields such as security and trade is also a microcosm of the United States and Europe in recent years.

During the trade war, the United States also suffered a murderer against many allies, such as the United States imposed tariffs on imported steel and aluminum on the EU, Canada and Mexico.

However, the behaviors of these allies have become the past. The current outbreak of the United States is raging abyss, the economic recession is serious, and the global superpowers have a strong sense of crisis. Before the U.S. epidemic, they know the importance of allies.How positive can play in competition.It can be said that Trump ’s U.S. priority has been temporarily let go, pulling up more teams, maintaining the status of superpowers in the United States, and suppressing superpowers’ competitors Mdash; Mdash; China has become the first priority.At this time, the United States knows that allies must be used well.

According to data released by the US Department of Commerce, the annual rate of domestic GDP (GDP) in the second quarter of 2020 decreased by 32.9%month -on -month, setting the largest decline since the US government began to track the data in 1947.As the restrictions on the cancellation of the restrictions caused by restrictions on the surge in the southwestern region, many states in the United States had to suspend or retract the restart plan. As the epidemic spread, it may lead to further decline in consumer expenditure after pushing the U.S. unemployment rate.The data released by the world's large -scale enterprises on July 28 showed that the consumer confidence index fell to 92.6, the largest decline since March.At the same time, US President Trump called for delaying the 2020 election.It can be said that the United States feels the weakest.At this time, thinking of allies and wanting to use allies is actually an instinct.

You can take a look at Pompeo's recent call to condense allies' speech: On July 23, US Secretary of State Pompeo delivered a speech at the Presidential Library of Nixon, California.Claring to establish an anti -China Alliance in the world, calling on the world to respond to China in a way. It is recommended that the United States and Asia -Pacific countries such as Vietnam and Australia set up a new democratic alliance to counterattack the Chinese government's hegemony.The speech mentioned (we have) the United Nations, NATO, G7, and G20. If we are commanded, we combine economic, diplomacy, and military forces to believe that it is enough to face this challenge.

These are the current US government's attention to allies, and then look at the importance of Biden, who may come to the stage as a president, and Biden may return to the Obama's attention to allies during the Obama period.

The US News Weekly website reported on July 23 that the draft Political Political Political Political Policy is expected to be approved at the 2020 Democratic National Congress of the Democratic Party in Milwauki, Wisconsin.The Washington Post first reported this 80 -page document, and the documents severely condemned Trump during his term.The document said: President Trump promised to let lsquo; the United States prioritize RSQUO; mdash; mdash; but the United States under the leadership of Trump is isolated.Under his leadership, the reputation and influence of the United StatesFull corruption.Our country is more secure, our economy is more fragile, and our democracy, values and unity are in danger.Biden accused Trump accused of defeating on the world stage and filled the United States' opponents to fill gaps.Biden advocated international cooperation. He said that Trump hollowed out the US diplomatic resources, damaged international commitments, weakened our alliances, and stained our reputation.

The former Vice President said he plans to increase the funding and attention of the US diplomacy. After Trump's priority of US foreign policy, diplomatic and multilateralism will be taken as the top priority.

The report pointed out that Trump's obvious contempt for traditional alliances is Bayeng's main target in this document.He said the president has betrayed the American partner.

2. How should China respond to the United States re -attracting the global allies?

In response to the in -depth reflection on allies in the United States, and to work hard to consolidate the Global Alliance, how can China be able to do it?

The author believes that you can adapt to local conditions, apply for policies because of the country, and treat it due to the time.

One: Adapt to local conditions, distinguish between Australia, Europe, and Asian allies in the United States.

Second: Due to the policy of the country, the five -eye alliance country and other allies are different.

Third: Different from military alliances and economic foreign allies due to the treatment.

Fourth: Due to the time, the short -term behavior and long -term behavior of the American allies are different.

The United States allies include NATO member states and major non -NATO allies. As of September 2019, a total of 48 were.Among them, there are 17 major NATO allies and 31 NATO member states.American allies are mainly in Europe, and China attaches great importance to Europe.Establishing closer friendship, China may win the friendship of the entire Europe.

Among the relatively strong national power of the United States, the relatively strong national power can also be divided into three categories: 1. Allies caused by traditional and racial factors: Canada, Britain, Israel, Australia.Second, allies caused by war factors: including Germany and Japan.Third, the allies caused by other factors: France, South Korea, Portugal, Turkey, Spain, Italy, Egypt, etc.

The world is very clear that among the relatively strong national power of the United States, the first type of tradition and racial factors: Canada, Britain, Israel, and Australia should be the most important allies to the United States.The second category of allies caused by war factors: defeated Germany, Japan, and there is a stage of patience.The third categories of other factors are not too strong for the United States' heartpower. Basically, they are weighing decisions with their own national interests. This may be relatively obedient in South Korea and Egypt.Essence

It can also be classified as an allies in the United States as follows: traditional political allies, military allies, economic allies, and self -righteous allies.The members of the Five Eye Alliance are all political allies in the United States.These countries come from a ancestor, the descendants of the Anglo-Saxon, and they spread to various places with the pace of British colonial.American military allies: In addition to the above political allies, NATO countries are mostly US military allies.American Economic League: A large part of such ally, so it is necessary to make further subdivision.There are also some allies who are self -righteous.Such as Japan, Germany, Iraq, South Korea and so on.These countries were invited by the United States by the United States because they were defeated by the United States, or they were invited to be invited by the United States by the United States, or they were asked to be invaded.They think they are all allys in the United States, and they are actually only allies who have been tied to chains.

From the composition of the allies, it can be seen that the majority of American allies and European countries account for the vast majority.Most of NATO members are members of the European Union.But with the Brexit Brexit, the European Union has basically been controlled by Germany and France.Germany and France are not the most important traditions and racial factors. As Europe, the largest basic set of American allies, Germany and France can be controlled by the European Union and can even be said to be in Europe's external direction.In 2019, French President Macron said NATO had died.Macron proposed European strategy autonomy and claims to reduce its dependence on the United States on European defense issues.France is the first Western country with diplomatic relations with China. Foreign policy has been taking the road of independence.

It can be said that Germany is now the steering wheel of the European Union and establishes closer friendship with Germany. China may win the friendship of the entire Europe.

Germany is a world country that is resisting the restraint and control of the United States.US President Trump has recently reduced the number of U.S. troops stationed in Germany and criticized the German federal government to violate NATO's agreement and failed to increase the expenses of tuition to 2%of the GDP.German Chancellor Angra Middot; Merkel was interviewed by six European news in Berlin Prime Minister's Palace on June 26.Merkel said in an interview that although there are important reasons to continue to maintain the cross -Atlantic Defense Alliance, if the United States voluntarily abandon its role as a world country, Germany must fundamentally consider future cross -Atlantic relations.She also urged that Europe must play a stronger role than during the Cold War.In the 70 years after World War II, Germany no longer had Nazi nature.China may wish to consider helping Germany to get rid of the post -war binding of the United States and help Germany return to the world's power to become Europe.

3. China should continuously examine and improve China's global exchanges and ideas, reduce global vigilance and suspicion of the rising vigilance of China, reasonably reduce international competition, and condense global friendship.

First of all, we must take more communication to reduce the wishes of European countries' alert and prevent psychology, and unite the friendship between white European world.

China is deeply clear that the European and White world is the most important force in the rise of the world in recent century.However, 200 years ago, China had little contact with Europe and the United States.In the thousands of years of strong history of China 200 years ago, there was no pursuit, ideas, and actions that wanted to lead the white world.

In the past 200 years, China and European and White World have a lot of contacts, but they are more unpleasant to be bullied and bullied history and memory.I think that most Chinese people, in the face of the rise of today's country, are more about being bullied by the European and American world.It is definitely difficult to hear the voice of the key white world.Of course, no one in the world in the world has thought of being leaded by Chinese leaders and accepting Chinese command.

The rise of China is only in the territory of China.Based on China's weakness and no desire to lead the European and White world, China is not a leader in the pursuit of the world.

It can be said that the current global super position and the role of world leaders in the United States are mainly European and American worlds.Its leadership role is also basically limited in the white world field, not the leadership of races around the world.Asia -Africa and Latin, the United States is also unable to lead.

In summary, China has no desire to seek the dominance of the white world in the United States.Therefore, China's rise will not pose any threat to the dominance of the white American world, and it will not be threatened.These Chinese thinking should resonate with European countries and strengthen communication of this information.

In the United States under Trump's governance today, it has withdrawn from the WHO, withdrawn from the Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), UNESCO, Global Immigration Agreement, UN Human Rights Council, Iran Nuclear Agreement, Soviet Union and the United States to eliminate between the two countries.Chenghe Short -range missile Treaty (referred to as the medium -to -central guidance treaty), Paris Climate Agreement, and so on.Trump's slogan is to make the United States great again.His judgment was that the United States had been involved overseas overseas, allowing the United States to bear the burden of maintaining too much international order, and publicly shouted that he did not want to be the world police.

China may think this is a good time to improve the leadership of the world's world.The United States also believes that China has the desire and ability to manipulate global institutions.

The author believes that the world situation has changed extremely quickly, and China should also continue to examine and improve China's global exchange concepts and ideas, which can reasonably reduce international competition and condense global friendship.

A report prepared for the Sino -US Super Power Marathon believes that China actively expand its influence in existing international organizations through the establishment of AIIB and new development banks and other institutions, and uses international economic institutions such as World Trade Organization and World Bank.EssenceIn addition, the China Standard 2035 project is implemented to control global standard formulation institutions such as the International Standardization Organization, the United Nations International Telecommunications Alliance, and the International Electricity Commission.

On July 31, the Nikkei Chinese website mentioned that China is strengthening the sense of presence during the formulation of international rules in the industry.China is being formulated by the national level by the national levelThe medium -term strategy of 2035, in some international institutions, the number of proposals in China in 2019 exceeded the United States, and ranked first.China hopes to master the dominance in the formulation of world standards and strengthen technical dominance to occupy the competitive advantage.The United States seeks to block China in the field of high -tech, but also reveals its limits.Taking international standards such as communication such as communication and international telecommunications alliances (ITU) as an example.According to statistics from industry groups, in terms of the number of technical documents on cable communication standards in 2019, China reached 830, accounting for 33 % of the overall, accounting for the first place.There are still many proposals in South Korea, the United States and Japan, which are ranked 2nd to 4th.Technical documents have become a draft time for standards, so the number of proposals will bring greater right to speak.

China seeking a sense of existence is also very prominent outside communication.According to the data of the Japan Industry Standard Survey Association, from the perspective of the number of committees set up by the International Standardized Organization (ISO) and the International Electricity Commission (IEC) in 2014, China is 16, accounting for about 4 points of the overall (65).1. rank first.The committee is an institution that formulates various fields such as electronic technology. Generally, the proposal country will obtain the position of the officer.In January 2020, the Chinese Shu Yinbiao served as the chairman of the International Electricity Commission.

The article states that China's intention lies in the formulation of leading technology, enhance industrial competitiveness, and promote the industrial cultivation of 5G and artificial intelligence (AI).In recent years, in order to build a stage of competition, China is considered to formulate Chinese standards 2035, which is developing Chinese technology in international standards.

The U.S. government is vigilant about China's dominant power in the field of technology standardization, and has been promoting policies to exclude Chinese high -tech enterprises outside business as much as possible.In 2019, there is a problem of security guarantee, and the United States has actually banned domestic companies from transaction with Huawei.In addition, Britain and France have also begun to adopt a harsh attitude towards Huawei, but in the field of 5G, China cannot fully eliminate China's influence.If you have the standard, you can also shake economic sanctions.The U.S. Department of Commerce and the formulation of rare measures for the formulation of international standards in the field of communications on June 15, allowing American companies to exchange technical information with Huawei.If the transaction with Huawei is continuously prohibited, American companies may fall behind in the standardized trend.China's leading in the field of 5G will have an impact on a wide range of fields.If you have the dominant power in terms of standardization, Chinese companies will easily occupy an advantage in using 5G smartphone semiconductors and software development.China has previously improved its competitiveness in the field of high -tech through equipment assembly, but its advantages may expand to the core field.Seeking a US strategy to block China in the high -tech field will be further difficult.

Japan's politics has also strengthened its alertness.Gan Liming, chairman of the tax system in the Liberal Democratic Party that is governed in Japan, said that China will first make the country's standards a full set of Chinese systems that China will first make their national standards become international standards.What is paying attention to is the formulation of international standards for China to propose smart cities such as ISO and others.There are many industries involved from residential to cars, which may affect the business of Japanese companies.Japan is worried about the risk of personal data leakage through facial recognition.If there is a situation of technical threats to security, the attitude of various countries will become severe.The quiet expansion of Chinese standards and new frictions are like shadows.

Let's think about a question: What is the most fundamental pursuit of all development?I think: It is the prosperity of our own life and happiness that allows us to have a happy life of 1.4 billion people.If we work more directly in the inside, the directness of the country and the prosperity of the country and the country may be more efficient and high -quality than that in introverted.At the same time, it is not enough to pursue the recognition of the outside world. It does not pay attention to global leadership of the world's influence, and it can also make China's development better and faster.If it is too pursuing the world's influence and the pursuit of world recognition, it may not only fall into our people's people, which may not be conducive to development.Too much pursuit of being recognized by the world and attaching too much attention to global leadership of world influence is also an unconfident forward path.The indirect income of the country by gaining the influence of the world's leadership may not necessarily exceed the huge total cost of winning the influence of world leadership.

Focusing on your own progress, reducing international competition reasonably, and modifying the pursuit of world influence and leadership moderately, it may make the path of China's development more caters to the inner desire of 14 billion people.The friendship of 100 million people.

The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on July 30, and proposed that it should pay more attention to internal circulation and accelerate the formation of a new pattern of dual -cycle.This is a major strategic adjustment that focuses on its own development.It should be a stronger to focus on the deep meaning of reducing its own advancement and reasonable reducing international competition. It is very good, and it also responds to the changes in the external world environment caused by the global epidemic.

There is no need to worry about China too much, and there will be many countries in the world to fall to the United States in many countries in the world.Most countries are not willing to be a follow -up.More countries will choose justice, friendliness, peace, and interaction, and will not choose to help the station easily.On June 13th, the Russian New News Agency website issued a warning entitled Singapore and the European Union to warn the United States: Don't send us an ultimatum!According to an article, US diplomat attempts to tear all new and old agreements between the local government and Beijing in the world, but Singapore and the European Union expressed their willingness to choose a border station between China and the United States.The article says: The two actions adopted by the high -level high -level ends of Eurasia, the purpose of its purpose is amazing, that is, it means that we do not let us choose between the United States and China, and we will deal with both parties at the same time.

Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong recently published an article in the US Diplomacy Diplomacy: We sincerely hope that the United States and China (and any country in Asia) should not force us to make our unacceptable choices among them.We need both.

usIt is important to have a relationship with China, and we have no intention of hurting the relationship with Chinese.On July 28, local time, Australian Foreign Minister Payne said at a press conference jointly held with US Secretary of State Pompeo that although Australia and the United States will continue to cooperate in many aspects, the country's views on all issues are not on all issues.It is completely consistent with the United States.She said that Australia had no intention of harm to China, but she would not do anything that violates the interests of the country.

Author: Peng Shengyu

Strategic Researcher, Special Researcher of IFF International Financial Forum Research Institute