The epidemic of new COVID-19 (COVID-19) has changed the world over the past six months.People have long -expected economic impacts and are also being manifested in specific data.
World Bank predicts that the global economy in 2020 will decline 5.2%, which is the worst economic recession since World War II.China, which was independent during the financial turmoil in 2008, was greatly affected this time. The GDP shrank 6.8%in Q1, and the Q2 was 3.2%.The World Bank said in a relevant report that the economic growth rate of emerging countries and developing countries in 2020 will shrink 2.5%, which is the worst performance since 1960.
And Europe and the United States are even more miserable. According to the estimation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on July 17, after the United States appeared in the most severe atrophy since the Great Depression in the 1930s in the first quarter, it will shrink 37%in the second quarter (at this quarterThe annual rate is calculated), 6.6%of the year, and nearly 15 million U.S. people have unemployment.The European Commission said on July 7 that the euro zone economy is expected to shrink 8.7%in 2020.
A cruel reality is that almost everyone has a highly hoped vaccine. I do not know when it can be successful. Even if it is successful, I do not know if they can really block the epidemic.
To make matters worse, in addition to the new challenges of the epidemic, there are traditional challenges of international relations.Structural contradictions between China and the United States have exploded at an unprecedented speed.Since July alone, the Hong Kong Autonomous Act of the United States, approval of military sales on Taiwan, sanctioning Chinese officials due to Xinjiang issues, restricting Huawei employees visa in the United States, announced that they will ban Douyin, release the South China Sea statement that deny China, and send dual aircraft carriers in the South Navy of the South Navy., Close Husteton Consulate General, etc.The speed of incidents between China and the United States can be calculated almost daily.
In the past, the experience of human society was that the crisis was often accompanied by great conflicts.When the world's century -old changes have superimposed the great plague of a century.Where will the world go from?
The epidemic prevention and control is a populist politics buried
To prevent the economy from continuing to decline, the urgency is still to prevent the spread of the epidemic, and find a reasonable balance between the prevention and control of the epidemic and the resumption of work.The struggle of human beings with SARS-COV-2 has lasted for more than half a year, and many people tried to find the answer from existing experience.
The Chinese economy increased by 3.2%in the second quarter, and most European countries had controlled the epidemic and began to restart the economy.Globally, most of those who have re -production and production are in areas with remarkable results in the prevention and control of the epidemic.In sharp contrast, the epidemic prevention and control of many countries is very bad.The World Health Organization (WHO) Director -General Tedros Ghebreyesus said on July 13 that many countries have moved towards the wrong direction.The new crown virus is still our number one enemy, but the governments and people of many countries have not reflected this.The virus is raging, and the leaders of some countries have released the chaotic signal, eroding the most valuable trust in responding to the epidemic.From the perspective of the outside world, criticism here is undoubtedly targeted at the United States and Brazil.
Trump, who shouted in the United States priority, is not only the lack of sanitary knowledge, but also short -sightedness, overwhelming, overwhelmed, and only selfishness that will only shirk responsibility.Boisonaro, who shouted in Brazil, stood on the opposite side of the active prevention and controller. He was in an deadlock and had no ability to resolve contradictions.They are all populist politicians, with personal political interests as the highest purpose, leading to outbreaks of the epidemic.In addition, the situation of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is the same. Although the British government's epidemic prevention measures have been improved later, the epidemic has exploded, and more than 40,000 people died.The situation of the epidemic is inseparable from Johnson's irresponsibility and poor prevention and control.
Behind the extremely severe situation of the global epidemic prevention and control, it shows the contradiction between the level of civilian politicians, the ability to deal with crisis, and moral responsibilities to keep up with the needs of the epidemic.For populist politicians, the shortcomings of governing the country should have relying on gangs and appointing professional talents to make up, but in the end, many of them take the votes as the goal of struggle, and the number of votes and the ability to govern the country is equal.Put the professionals on the opposite side as the object of shirk responsibility.
In this sense, although the epidemic is only an emergency, it is enough to see the sexual and ability to view the nature and ability of politicians.
The epidemic is a mature political leader, anyway,
In the past few years, how many people rely on dealing with media issues to express their inconsistent remarks. How many people use the people to use the people's dissatisfaction with the status quo to vilify the elite.Passer.
When the tide retreats, you will see who is swimming naked.Although the epidemic has not yet ended, it has also begun to chaos anyway, and it is certain that those leaders who are really capable of dealing with the crisis.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel's support rate has recently risen to 80%, and the support rate of her middle and right party Citizen Civil Affairs (CDU) has increased from 28%at the beginning of the epidemic to 39%.Five years of Merkel's reputation fell for many years.There are no reasons, the effectiveness of the Merkel government epidemic prevention and control has been recognized by the public.As far as the mortality rate is concerned, there are currently only 4.8%in Germany, the United States is 5.6%, the United Kingdom is as high as 14.2%, and France is 18.9%.The healing rate of Germany is much higher than other countries, reaching 92.1%.
Merkel, who has been re -elected as the Prime Minister for the third time, has appeared 14 times on the world's most powerful women's list in the world's Merkel, who has passed the European debt crisis.However, the decision to allow a large number of refugees to enter Germany in 2015 gave her a huge political cost. The problem of refugee has intensified the rise of populism and extremely right -wing forces in Europe.As soon as he entered the room, he became the third largest political party of the German House of German House. The support rate of personal and ruling alliances has reached a record low in the past five years.In such a situation, Merkel can still maintain a sober mind in the face of the epidemic, and refuses to rely on simply catering to the public to increase the support rate.
When the Asian epidemic broke out and other European and American politicians were busy with accusing China of harvesting public opinion, Germany actively reserved medical equipment to prepare sufficient preparation for the outbreak of the epidemic.For prevention and control measures, Merkel and the governors of the federal states choose to strictly implement the ban on the advice of experts.When many countries chose to treat only to treat severe illnesses, Germany's approach was to detect people with milder symptoms earlier, instead of waiting for their viruses to attack and send people to track treatment.All these have made Merkel gain a high reputation.
At the beginning of the outbreak of the South Korean epidemic, the support rate of President Moon Jae -in was only 44.7%, but after the epidemic was effectively controlled in May 2020, Wen Zaiyin's support rate was as high as 70%or more.The support rate has never exceeded 50%, setting a new record.In the South Korean Congress elections in April, Wen Zaiyin's common Democratic Party won 180 seats and obtained 60%of the seats. It was also the first time that a single party occupied a five -fifth of the parliamentary seats has been occupied by a single party since 1987.Without copying the experience of other countries, and not using the energy to pass on contradictions and criticize China's input epidemic, this kind of straightforward problem that does not escape the active prevention and control is far from some populist politicians.
The economic trauma caused by the epidemic is gradually emerging, and the political impact it brings will inevitably be gradually released.In the face of crisis, what the people need to lead them to lead the leaders.Popularism will not withdraw from the historical stage, and they still have strong soil.However, the epidemic also provided praise politicians with the greatest concentration effect and stage.
Mature leaders are still the mainstay
In terms of a larger background, relatively mature and rational politicians still occupy an important right to speak.
In India, Prime Minister Narendra MODI) Strongly calm down the domestic wave of nationalism. Of course, he knows that the United States has been in the way of China and India, and has always taken the initiative to criticize China to win India. He also understands that it will be much easier to get the support of the United States at this time, but he does not haveDoing this is trying to stabilize the situation.While making a political statement, the emotions in India are released partly through the border confrontation. While trying to avoid the conflict upgrade into a dispute, actively communicate with China, ease contradictions, and continue to maintain the balance between India in the United States and Japan, China and Russia.
Modi is very clear that the status of the great power of India today comes from the development of the past decades.Whether in the past, or the future, survival and development are the most important things for 1.4 billion Indians.
The Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe often showed a charming look of Trump. He trot all the way in Putin's ugliness when he met with Putin, which was once questioned by the outside world.However, it must be seen that Japan is a country that has been rare in recent years and has maintained a good relationship with China and the United States at the same time, and has been rated as one of the two favorite leaders by Trump (according to the former US national security consultant Bolton,The other is British Prime Minister Johnson) and has achieved fundamental improvement with China -Japan relations. Li Keqiang visited Japan in May 2018 and Abe visited China in October 2018, allowing China and Japan to get out of the past eight years.Over the past eight years, Abe has met Putin more than 25 times, trying to promote the conclusion of the Japanese -Russian Peace Treaty.
It should be said that Japan is facing the biggest change in the surrounding security pattern after World War II.The improvement of Sino -Japanese, Japan, and Russia relations is that Japan has adjusted its own security situation after the United States has changed its security in Japan.Only in this way, Japan has room for bargaining when facing US security ransom.
Cooperation development is still the world theme under the epidemic
In recent years, as Trump, Johnson, Bosonaro and others have taken office and the rise of right -wing populism, many people are full of worry about the trend of world situations.Among them, the structural contradictions have intensified and the impact of the new crown pneumonia. The pessimistic sound has continued to increase.However, the fog that disturbing the disturbances will actually find that cooperation development is still the mainstream choice of the world today.
Even though the right -wing populism has social soil, even though the current development of the world is facing an unprecedented crisis, for the vast majority of countries and the public, the life that is eager to be stable and rich is still the most important and simple demand.To achieve this goal, it is impossible for confrontation, conflicts and exceptions to be a long -term way. Only by shelving differentiation and seeking cooperation is a truly effective choice.
In this case, those truly mature political leaders will only seize all opportunities. In the changing world situation, they will seek the greatest benefit for the country and try to use populist politicians.In the future competition, populists are destined not to have too much win.
Where the world will go, it is not unpredictable.Even with the current impact of the epidemic, Sino -US relations have reached a new low, 74%of the US companies in China still stated that they plan to expand investment in China.EssenceThe leaders of many countries are also urging China and the United States to strengthen communication dialogue and avoid confrontation.Many countries such as Xi Jinping, Putin, Merkel, Modi, Abe and many other countries have recently frequently discussed each other to discuss the restoration of the economy. Their status and influence on the world in their respective domestic politics will not easily fall into astringent.
Mature politicians will not let go of the situation out of control, nor will they be tired of the phenomenon of disputes.
