Zhang Yun: The great strategic opportunity period in the United States

The core slogan of Trump in the 2016 election campaign is to make the United States great again. Although he cannot simply link this with his election, his election also proves how deep this slogan is.(Agence France -Presse)

Since the beginning of this year, Sino -US relations have continued to be tight. From China, this is the result of the United States' strengths on China in trade, crown disease, network security, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong issues.

Many people attribute this to the populist politics of US President Trump.This is a factor, but it is unfair to simply attribute the problem to the Trump factor.Because dissatisfaction in American society is not made by Trump, but has a long history.

The core slogan of Trump in the 2016 election campaign is to make the United States great again. Although he cannot simply link this with his election, his election also proves how deep this slogan is.And this is the anxiety that the US strategic elites are about to close the US international leadership and strategic opportunity period, and the anger intertwined with the people's waste of the United States' own development strategic opportunity.

Mistake recognition of single pole time and strategic opportunities

The collapse of the Berlin Wall, the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the changes of the Eastern European drama, and the end of the Cold War. The United States suddenly became the only superpower in the world. Although the old Bush administration has a strategic perspective, it prudently corresponds to the great changes in the international structure. HoweverThe elites gradually attributed the end of the Cold War to the victory of the American model. The end of the history proposed by Fukuyama and Charles Clausmo defined the single -pole moment, all showing the joy of the United States for victory and the ambitions of re -creation of world order.

With the disintegration of the U.S. -Soviet power, the United States seems to be increasingly believed that the peace under the United States has turned the single pole into a single pole order into a single pole order since the 1990s.The US political diplomats start from the two -party consensus against the Soviet Union to start to a new and radical strategy that is gradually converging, that is, maintaining the United States -core free international order or free hegemony order.

Why this new outlook on world order is more aggressive, because it must not only transform international order in accordance with the idea of the United States, but also transform those domestic order that may cause national security threats to the United States.

Based on the consensus of the above strategic cognition, three major new concepts have also begun to form three major new concepts in the US strategic thinking after the Cold War.Military intervention was carried out; the second category was the so -called rogue country, such as Iraq, Iran, North Korea, etc. The United States conducted the Iraq war in the early 21st century.The strategic competitors of order members are mainly Russia and China. In the second 10 years of the 21st century, we saw the tension between US and Russian relations and the ups and downs of Sino -US relations.

In this sense, the United States seems to regard the single -pole moments of the United States after the Cold War as a strategic opportunity period to create a single pole order.Mainstream.

Who lost the question from the United States

After the Iraq war, the global wave of unilateralism against the United States, a large number of financial burdens left by the Afghanistan and Iraq war, from the global financial crisis from the United States in 2008, allowing the American people to support the ideological foundation of the great strategy after the Cold War in the Cold War.Lost interest.In American society, the choice of government policies in the past 30 years is wrong. It uses valuable resources for the danger of being misjudged, as well as expensive foreign countries' construction and leadership display.

They believe that the U.S. -made elites waste the strategic development period of self -development of the United States' extremely favorable strategic position after the Cold War.At the same time, seeing the rise of emerging countries, which is represented by China, they further believed that the United States had done foolish things in the past 30 years. As a result, these countries that might be opponents not only did not reach expectations.The success of his success has further strengthened the awareness of the waste of strategic opportunities. The core question of the American people is who lost the United States (WHO LOST The US).Trump was elected president with the strong support of this universal American people.

Facing the torture of the people in the country, coupled with the rapid rise of emerging countries at the same time, and the emergence of new multilateral global governance frameworks such as the G20 (G20) Group (G20).The window period of the strategic opportunity period of new order is being closed, which triggers strategic anxiety.

The traditional elites are not just facing the challenges of China and Russia, which are often rendered by the media, but also the beliefs and commitments of the US global leadership under the single -pole order they adhere to the unilateral order.The bigger gap.

In other words, there are fewer and fewer resonance among the international order in the United States, making it increasingly difficult to establish leadership in the new global order.This kind of new domestic developments have caused very interesting but seemingly contradictory situations. On the one hand, Trump ’s ruling on the one hand is an isolationism represented by the United States to meet the needs of the people, and on the other handIt highlights the needs of China -Russia's strategic competitors to maintain the needs of the global supreme position to reflect the needs of strategic continuity.

For some strategic elites, how to seize the advantages of superb power in the United States and build a single -pole order to reshape domestic support is important, and this will bring international impact.

Who lost the basic question of the United States is the key to rebuilding the new consensus of the United States in foreign relations. If this fundamental differences cannot be failed, no other efforts will have the essential effect.

The key to the relief of the people of the people and the anxiety of the elite is how the United States revives confidence. The definition of the strategic opportunity of the US monocular global leadership is a misunderstanding of awareness, and the strategic opportunity period for the United States to develop new global leadership.Not only did it disappear, but there was a great future.

The key is whether the United States itself can historically not exaggerate and treat it, and to make strategic adjustments with the actual situation of the change. If the adjustment is smooth, the United States will once again become a reality.

First of all, the United States is a great country that has made unprecedented historic contributions to the construction of the post -war international order, but on the other hand, it is also necessary to see that the Soviet Union's Cold War ended, not the result of the strategic differentiation of the United States.After World War II, it can lead the design and constructing international mechanisms such as the United Nations, the General Agreement of Customs Trade, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank, which shows that the United States is a country with very creative and broad international feelings.These mechanisms are still the basic framework system of international relations today.

At the same time, the US strategic community did not predict the sudden end of the Cold War. This predictive failure also made the strategic strategists in the Cold War, such as Bujetzinski, Kenan, etc.More cautious.However, the new generation of strategic elites actively attributed the failure of the Soviet Union to the success of the expansion of the US free order expansion. If they take it for granted, they will realize single pole peace and prosperity.After the Cold War, the facts have proved that the situation is not so simple.

Secondly, the United States ’all allies and partnerships in the world are an important part of the United States 'soft power. However, the experience of the United States' diplomatic toolbox mainly develops in the Cold War, which limits the potential of the United States to better use the above advantages.The United States alliances and gangs all over the worldWith the network, it is undoubtedly an important resource for US diplomacy. From a historical point of view, no big country can develop so wide and continuous.

A positive case is the Seventh Kingdom Group. This mechanism has contributed to coordinating the policy of western developed economies and the stability of the world economy for a long time.But on the other hand, this network of the United States is formed during the Cold War to curb the Soviet Union as the main purpose, and the corresponding mechanism design and thinking habits are all matched with the Cold War. These are not in line with the new situation after the Cold War.

If the United States can use the advantages of this network to lead the world in terms of schedule settings, cost sharing, policy coordination, etc., corresponding to global issues such as climate change, energy crisis, infectious diseases, etc.It will weaken and strengthen.

From the perspective of the United States, Sino -US relations are actually an important experimental field for the United States to redefine international leadership and the way of interacting with the world.Trump and his former Obama actually have a sense of problem, that is, how to reshape the U.S. strategy in the case of how the single -pole order cannot be realized and the public's global leadership support.This year is the year of the United States election. No matter who is elected, the anger of the people analyzed before and the anxiety of the elite still exist, which brings great uncertainty to Sino -US relations.

However, in the case that China has a direct impact on domestic politics in the United States, what China can do is how to transform the strategic thinking of the United States and provide external possible convenient environments.The success of the strategic opportunities of the new global leadership construction in the United States is also important for China to seize the strategic opportunity of further reform and opening up.

(The author is an associate professor of the National Niigata University in Japan)