Yan Jiaqi: The popularity of the new crown has brought disasters. This article uses the method of Economics of Yuguan to analyze and predict the global economic trend after the new crowd is popular.

mdash; mdash; Future of the global economy from Yuguan Economics

American politician Kissinger wrote on the Wall Street Journal that the new crowns will always change the world order.When I read this sentence, the first impression is that changing world order is a major event in human society.In the last century, the collapse of the two World War and the Berlin Wall changed the world order. In 1972, Nixon announced that the US dollar was decoupled from gold, which was also a major event and changed the order of the financial world.

It is easy to change the world order, just like a large earthquake, relying on the long -term accumulation of stress in the crust.Two World War is the product of unsatisfactory contradictions in international relations.In 1972, Nixon announced that the US dollar was decoupled from gold, which changed the order of the financial world. It was an unstoppable development of the economy after World War II. The amount of gold as actual currency could not match the real economy.In history, the popularity of several infectious diseases caused a big disaster at the time and did not change the world order.The popularity of the new crown has also brought great disasters to humans. Kissinger changed the role of the new crown virus and deepened global panic.

In the 21st century, globalization was an irresistible force that caused future world order to change. Globalization has been strengthened rather than weakening the ability to control the popularity of infectious diseases.The popularity of the new crown itself is just to isolated and reduced the interaction between people. It is not a factor that changes world order.

There are three methods to predict the economic and political trends of the new crown after the popularity of the new crown. The first is the method of Economics of Yuguan; the second is the method of macroeconomics; the third is the method of politicians or political strategic analysis methods.Kissinger's prediction does not use the first and second methods, but the third method.This article uses the first method to analyze and predict the global economic trend after the new crowns are popular.

What is Yu Guan Economics?

Yu Guan is relative and macro and micro.In celestial physics, Yu Guan refers to the material system that includes star groups, galaxies, galaxies, super galaxies, general galaxies, and a material system composed of rays and gravitational places in the universe space.In economics, the so -called Yu Guan refers to the financial phenomenon of human society from high altitudes outside the surface and space.Economic fields that affect and change.

In the vast universe, since a small planet mdash; mdash; after humans appear on the earth, the phenomenon in the earth and the universe has been divided into two categories.Phenomenon.Some animals also have conscious and independent behavior, but all animal behaviors can be regarded as natural phenomena.Microeconomics and macroeconomics are regarded human behavior as a conscious and independent economics branch of human behavior, and Yuguan Economics, when analyzing and studying certain economic phenomena, regards these phenomenaThe natural phenomenon of the group, so the economic phenomenon of Yu Guan cannot affect and change with government policies and short -term macroeconomics methods, and the natural phenomenon in the economy field.Yu Guan Economics ignores debt default, economic policy, digital currency, virtual economy, etc., and ignores it, but it will be deemed to see the emergence of agricultural generation, industrial revolution, robotics, and the emergence of the artificial environment of the earth.Essence

The economic phenomenon of human society needs to be observed, analyzed, and studied in combination with micro, macro and Yuzhi.

Natural phenomenon in economic development

Observing economic phenomena from the perspective of Yu Guan's economics can easily divide the natural phenomena and artificial phenomena in economic development.From the perspective of the moon to the earth, the biosphere is a thin circle on the junction of the water rings and the rock circle on the surface of the atmosphere and the surface of the earth, and the human circle is a thinner circle floating on the biosphere.layer.Economic globalization in the human circle is a natural phenomenon.Because people have intelligence, people can build artificial nature by virtue of their own intelligence, build urban and towns, build roads, excavate canals, and transform vegetation.Prior to the 2,000 -disciplinary industrial revolution, the energy used by human beings was mainly based on the solar energy on the ground.Human planting crops, raising livestock, using wind and hydropower, human beings rely on their own physical strength to build houses, production products, engage in politics, and war. It is nothing more than the result of the continuous conversion of solar radiation energy entering the surface of the earth on the biosphere and human circles.

From the perspective of Yu Guan's economics, the natural phenomena in economic development are:

1. Increase and decrease in population.The medium century is popular, and the reduction of the population is a natural phenomenon. Generally speaking, the reduction of the population in war is also a natural phenomenon.But fascist's massacre and great extinction are the phenomenon of deliberate manufacturing.

2. Scientific and technological progress.The use of fire and iron, the invention of steam engines, the development and utilization of fossil fuel energy, the widespread application of power, the Internet, artificial intelligence and the popularization of robots are all natural phenomena.It is the development of artificial intelligence, and it is also a natural process that shifts non -people's will.

3. Global climate change.Local artificial rainfall is an artificial phenomenon.

4. The spread of globalization, economics knowledge, new management system and method.In the future, the financial revolution that will inevitably be caused by the emergence of global digital currencies.

Today, we see that goods, capital, and information can quickly flow globally, and this phenomenon is global.In fact, there is another kind of globalization, which is the flow of water in the water circle on the earth, and water can flow across national borders.The water on the surface of the earth exists in the form of auto, liquid, and solid.These water is in a constant cycle, of which water vapor transportation is one of the most active links in the water circulation. The global atmospheric water exchange cycle is about 10 days, that is, the cycle of the atmospheric water is 10 days, and the cycle of river water cycleThe cycle is 16 days, the soil water is 1 year, the lake water is 17 years, and the cycle cycle of the polar glacier water is 9700 years.The water circulation makes all the water in the water ring connecting, so that the water is constantly updated as a resource, and it also affects the climate of various places.Microeconomics and macroeconomics do not study the impact of greenhouse effects and water circulation on economic development, while Yu Guan Economics uses these issues as the object of its own research.

One century is 100 years, and a thousand agent is 1,000 years.Judging from the time scale of Qianjun, the globalization we are talking about today -the global flow of goods, capital, and information is just the initial stage of globalization.Commodities and capitals are different from water and atmosphere. The atmosphere flows from high pressure to low pressure, while goods and capital always flow towards places with high rates of compensation.In today's 3,000 -year -old, water and capital can freely flow across the country and flow global, and most people cannot flow freely globally.Today, the national borders plays a certain protective role like a membrane.In the initial stage of globalization, what we see is that the global flow of capital has strengthened the membranes of some countries and prevented another country from migrating to the population of these countries.

People are different from water. People have consciousness and have their own ability to act. No matter how global, there are quite a lot of people who are attached to the country, and the phenomenon of national settlements will not disappear.The supervisor of the multinational company is as constant as atmospheric water, and the most conservative nation is the water in the polar glacier.

Economic development requires people's active actions.From the perspective of macroeconomics, the legitimate intervention and improper intervention of government power on the economy are artificial phenomena in economic development.The national planned economy is an improper intervention in the economy. The use of monetary policy, fiscal policy, trade policy, and income policy affects economic development. Generally, it is generally legitimate intervention.Those who formulate policies are wrong, which will also cause improper intervention.Under the democratic system, this improper intervention is easily corrected.History has proven that the destruction of the national planned economy to economic development cannot be corrected.

Human factors in the new crown popularity

In human history, the epidemic of infectious diseases is basically a natural phenomenon.to preventThe spread of infectious diseases has gradually increased in the past 20 years.The increase in human factors that meet the requirements of medical prevention will help suppress the spread of infectious diseases.But since this year, the new crowns are not a simple natural phenomenon, but the combination of human phenomenon and virus infection.Not only the virus is spreading, but also panic is spreading; places without viruses, panic is also spreading; panic spread is faster and more serious than the spread of the virus.Due to the spread of panic, many countries and regions have implemented excessive administrative control or administrative intervention from the government to enterprises, transportation, communities, and villages.The two factors of panic spread and administrative control form a feedback effect of strengthening each other.The stronger the administrative control that does not meet the medical requirements, the stronger the panic spreads.For example, a high -rise elevator allows only two people at a time. When the elevator is busy, people who go downstairs on the second floor often need to wait for a long time.When no one enters the second floor from the high level, it is difficult to go downstairs from the second floor.This trivial matter has also enhanced the intensity of panic spread.

Panic spread is a sociological phenomenon. For economic development, like the plunge of the stock market and the financial turmoil, it has brought disasters to economic development.Administrative control is the intervention of government power on economic development. Just like the era of the Soviet Union and the Chinese planned economy, it has caused economic depression and is artificial.The Great Depression in the 1930s was not the depression that people intentionally created, and this century's new crowns, natural factors only occupy a small part, mainly a kind of government power, coupled with various administrative power intervention of economic intervention in economic intervention,Artificial Great Depression.Of course, some of these administrative interventions are necessary, and the problem is that the scope and intensity of administrative intervention greatly expands the scope and intensity of administrative intervention.

About 130 million people born in the world each year, and nearly 60 million people die.In 2016, down respiratory tract infection was the most fatal infectious disease, causing 3 million people to die around the world.Different infectious diseases are different and cannot be fully compared, but it can compare government behavior and panic spread. If in 2016, the Internet and the news of various countries report the number of infectious diseases and deaths every day.The mayor, intervene in the city's sealing method, panic in 2016 will form a ten -fold man a great depression than in 2020.It can be considered that the panic of the new crown is the head of the heads, governors, governors, and mayor of many countries this year. Watching the administrative intervention of the death data of the new crown, it has adopted different levels of production, trade, transportation, and multiple services.The administrative intervention carried out in the industry, which caused a great panic that caused and spread.This kind of administrative intervention was 9bull before the thirty -first year; before 11, it was widespread in non -market economy countries. After decades, it was a non -sustainable in the short period of time.The phenomenon.

In 2016, infectious diseases were popular, there were only two kinds of spreads, one was the spread of the virus, and the other was the spread of infectious disease information.The new crowns in 2020 have added two spreads: one is the spread of the new crown panic, and the other is the spread of government administrative intervention.

The popularity of the new crowns is widely popular that in the Western world of the market economy, the impact of politics on the economy is far greater than the market forces.The author said in the book published this year: From Adam Bull; Start, Economics has long been called political economics for a long time. In 1890, Alfred Marshall (1842-1924) was published.The principle of economics.He referred to his work as the principles of economics without political economics, and finally stopped using the term political economics.In fact, human society has no pure economics so far. Before the era of robotics, economics can only be political, law, geographical conflict, war, natural disasters and emergencies, which dominate and influence human society.All economic phenomena.

The prosperity of the new crown after the stopping of the big popularity

The new crowns are popular, bringing disasters to humans.In the 21st century, globalization was an irresistible force that caused future world order to change. Globalization has been strengthened rather than weakening the ability to control the popularity of infectious diseases.The popularity of the new crown itself is just to isolated and reduced the interaction between people. It is not a factor that changes world order.

From the perspective of Yu Guan's economics, globalization is a natural phenomenon in economic development, and anti -globalization is an artificial phenomenon.All human history shows that a country implements a policy within ten or decades, and the policy will change when they pass the situation.The trade conflict between the country has always been a short -term phenomenon.Most of the monetary policies, fiscal policies, and foreign trade policies are mostly implemented to solve the current problems.Therefore, when studying the new crowns from the perspective of Yu Guan's economics, the popular impact on the global economy, we can see that when the new crown is popular, there are no factory, equipment, roads, bridges, communications systems, and financial systems in various countries in the world.Two of the World War I was severely damaged, and the two major factors in the new crowns disappeared at the same time.

Kissinger said that the popularity of the new crown will always change the world order. As long as you take a look, if there is a new thing under the sun, you will know that the old drama of human society will be repeated again.Today in the 21st century, unlike several history in history, the economic reduction of economic declines this year and after a period of time is the result of intentional behavior in most countries in the world.If you implement the business of transportation control, restricting population flow, restricting public places such as shopping malls, restaurants, hotels, cinemas, etc., the cancellation of a large number of cultural and sports activities, and the interruption of some global supply chains, investor confidence is frustrated and financial transactions are reduced.These behaviors are neither irresistible forces in nature, nor is it the product of irreconcilable contradictions in human society.Interested behavior is an intentional manufacturing behavior, and it is also an intentional can be changed.When intended behavior changes, when shopping malls, restaurants, hotels, cinemas re -open and cultural and sports activities return to normal, human needs suppressed by intentional behavior will erupt in a short period of time. The global economy will enter the prosperity stage.Due to the emergence of the new crown, major changes have occurred.

At this time, the long -term suppression of social needs will be manifested. It is unquestionable that, in addition to the fact that the economy cannot be restored due to the poor and individual reasons of individual countries and regions, in most countries, the economy will not be recovered.Welcome to a big prosperity.

The big storm after the prosperity

A branch of physics -there is a concept in thermodynamics called entropy (entropy), which is used to describe the orderly and disorderly (chaotic) level of the material system.The changes in world order will definitely be accompanied by the change of entropy.

The system inspected in thermodynamics can be an international system or a world system, a mixer, a chemical reactor container, a cell, a organism, an economy, a planet or an galaxy.These systems can be divided into three categories.One is an open system, which means that the system has both energy exchange and material exchange.The second category is a closed system, which means that the system has energy exchange with the outside world, but there is no material exchange.The third category is an isolated system, which means that the system does not have energy and material exchanges with the outside world. This is a physical classification method.This classification method is used in Yu Guan's economics. It can be seen that each state economy, every central bank, and every enterprise are the debt open system, and the global economy is a debt isolation system.

The global economy is a debt isolation system on the debt issue, and the space of aliens and the universe.Artificial satellites and space detectors are national assets that belong to a certain country on the planet. Before alien colonies, global economies had no foreign assets or foreign debt.

For global economies, global total financial assets are equal to global total financial liabilities, and they are expressed in mathematical formulas: global total financial assets -global total financial liabilities = 0. This is Global Financial Identity.

After the new crown is popular, it will produce a period of prosperity for a period of time.This great prosperity not only is not only based on the release of human needs suppressed by intentional behavior, but also the debt of central banks in many countries around the world in the new crowns.Based on expansion.At the same time, this debt expansion has also formed an increase in global financial assets, and it has formed a state of prosperity of financial transactions worldwide.One of the reasons for the financial crisis is the expansion of debt.Global Financial Constant Elix explains that a considerable part of the global and wealth showed by financial assets does not actually exist, just a promise of debt repayment.This promise is different. With the expansion of debt, unreliable promises are more accumulated.There is no need to build any economics of mathematics models. From the global financial constant formula, it can be known that after the great prosperity, a storm that is even bigger than the 2008 financial turmoil will sweep the world.The book of global wealth said: If a national central bank's balance sheet has huge debt on the balance sheet and the central bank continues to raise interest rates, the central bank itself must bear more and more interest pressure.In the case of huge liabilities, the interest rate hikes of the Central Bank will inevitably lead to huge interest expenditure Hellip; Hellip; while expanding the table with the United States, many countries in Eurasia, including China, and continue to expand their assets and liabilitiesTable, although this helps to maintain the smooth operation of the current financial market, it has laid the seeds that have been buried in the world for more than 2008 in the future.

The moment when the financial turmoil occurs is a time for economic order and peaceful change.Physical assets are the wealth of income, and financial assets are the wealth of income to distribute between investors.The financial turmoil is a protective response to the economy eliminating excess currency and excessive credit.The financial turmoil is not an armed conflict, not a war, not a volcanic eruption, not the end of the world, but the beginning of a new period of asset distribution in the storm.

Note: This article only represents the author's personal point of view, and the editor omites the note.