Peng Shengyu: Be alert to the arrival of the global food crisis

Ye Jianchun, deputy minister of the Ministry of Water Resources of China, pointed out on July 13 that the floods and floods in southern China have occurred frequently since June, which led to serious flood disasters in some areas.At present, a total of 433 rivers have occurred in the floods above super police, of which 109 rivers have occurred in super -guarantee floods, and 33 rivers have occurred in super historical floods.

The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on April 8th, the Standing Committee meeting clearly mentioned that it is necessary to prepare for the new crown epidemic for a long time and propose the six guarantees. One of them is to protect the safety of food.It shows that this year's grain guarantee is a problem.In 2020, it is a disaster year for the world and China. The global epidemic has been raging for more than half a year. The suspension of production and suspension of the global epidemic has caused serious affected economic production in the world.At present, the epidemic is still raging the world at an unprecedented growth rate. As of July 14, 2020, a total of more than 13 million confirmed cases in the world's new crown pneumonia have been confirmed.I don't know when the epidemic is a head.

When the global difficult plague continued, when the food production was raged by the super -historical flood, China and the world must be alert to the arrival of the global food crisis and respond in advance to avoid the world's large -scale food panic.

1. Climate disaster affects food production

Comprehensive Chinese media reports, Ye Jianchun, deputy minister of the Ministry of Water Resources of China on July 13 at the Random Blog in the State Council of the State Council of China, also said that China is about to enter the critical period of flood prevention in the seven or eight.Regional floods occur.

Affected by heavy rain, lakes such as the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China, Dongting Lake, Poyang Lake, Taihu Lake and other lakes are currently at the water level of super police, and the floods in many places are serious.In this regard, Chinese President Xi Jinping instructed to rescue the rescue on July 12.

As of 12:00 on July 12, the flood disasters have caused about 37 million people in 27 provinces and cities including Jiangxi, Anhui, and Hubei, and 141 people died and disappeared; the affected area of crops was 3532,000 hectares; the direct economic losses reached 82.23 billion yuan (RMB, S $ 16.4 billion).

It should be clear that the current Chinese floods have just begun, and the subsequent development trend is not clear. It does not rule out that the flood duration is relatively long, resulting in a large area of mature summer grains, and the subsequent grain value has missed the severe trend of the season.

The high temperature weather since 2019 has caused some countries to break the drought. Argentina has caused soybean production due to agricultural policy. North Korea's apology caused by severe drought ... Even the United States, which has always been in the wind.Corn and wheat will be reduced by 12 % and 11 % respectively from 2019-2020.

The Australian fire seriously affects animal husbandry and agriculture.The disaster is not alone. Just as the color of the new coronary virus was changed in February, Africa Ethiopia rang the locust polling alarm.Desert locusts have severely damaged grain production in Ethiopia, Egypt, the Middle East, and Pakistan.According to statistics estimates, if the locust accident continues, the global grain output of 2020 will be reduced by more than 30 %, and it will also affect the cultivation of summer crops.

According to the Indian Times report, Gulga, 30 kilometers away from the capital of New Delhi, has recently suffered a large number of locust invasion. The group of locusts that are paired are overwhelmed, and residents are panicked. New Delhi has also entered a high degree of warning.

The earliest locusts can be traced back to February this time, and the locusts from East Africa have spread to India and other places.According to India's current situation, this is the largest locust accident in 30 years, which will have a huge impact on crop production.

Not only India, the locust accident also broke out recently.The locusts originated from Paraguay have invaded Argentina and Brazil, and two weekly weeks in south of Brazil have entered a state of hygiene.Locusts can breed 20 times in 3 months, and 80 million locusts can squeeze in a square kilometer space. The food consumed a day is equivalent to 35,000 adults.

Locusts are flooding and food is not enough. It is the topic that people care about.India is the second largest country in the world. Brazil and Argentina are the top five food exporters in the world. The epidemic is+locust plague. If it cannot be controlled, the consequences are unimaginable.

The spread of the American epidemic has a serious threat to the Global Agricultural Production and Food Safety Awards.The United States and Canada are an important place for global food. The food output of the two countries in 2017 ranked second and tenth in the world, respectively, accounting for 28.9%of the total global total output.For example, the spread of the American epidemic has pose a major threat to the Global Agricultural Production and Food Safety Award.

Due to the isolation and blockade of the world, the stop work is very long, which will have various impacts on the full chain of food. For example, farmers have limited opportunities to obtain seeds, fertilizers and pesticides and other inputs.Many areas are facing serious labor shortages, causing many agricultural land to be farmed.As for marketing issues, farmers cannot transport fresh agricultural products to the local and urban markets.Because the cargo ship refused to go to the state of the epidemic because of the fear of being infected, international transportation services were delayed or canceled, which directly led to many grain trade interruptions.Global agricultural animal husbandry and fisheries are affected, and global grain production reduction has become a fact.

2. 265 million slums: It is hungry, not the new crown virus.

Hussein, an economist at the United Nations Food Program, said that the world's original 135 million population could not solve the problem of food and clothing. It is now affected by the new crown epidemic. This number will double more in 2020.There are 265 million people unable to solve the problem of eating.Affected by the lack of tourist revenue, reduction of overseas Chinese exchange, and travel, this year's data is expected to increase by about 130 million.

Some experts believe that although there is no universal food shortage, this hunger crisis will be global.Si Weining, director of the Institute of Food Policy in Washington, USA, said that the crisis will gradually appear in some underdeveloped countries in the next few months, especially those poor countries.

In India in South Asia, because of the sudden announcement of the blockade control, a large number of non -family workers can only hide under the bridge.Although the government has established a porridge nearby, as the number of people who come here to seek food are increasing, many people will still be hungry because they can't get food.Fight.A migrant worker who lined up with food here told the New York Times that it was not a virus but hunger to kill them. Although this begging behavior made him ashamed, he now has no choice.

And when viruses and hunger appear at the same time in those countries that are experiencing military conflicts, they are even worse.Because of war and political turmoil, people living in this area can only escape from the fire to avoid war. They do not have a stable economic source, and they do not even have a place to settle.In Niger in African countries, nearly 60,000 refugees have been collected, but food prices here have been rising.And this may exacerbate social turmoil.

Although international organizations and some countries have noticed these issues and have begun to take action, compared with the huge recipients, these limited rescue operations can only be a spear.

On April 16, the United Nations African Economic Commission issued a report entitled COVID-19: a report that protects Africa's life and economy, saying that more than 300,000 Africans may be killed by the influence of the new crown pneumonia.The most direct reason is that because the epidemic continues to spread in the African continent, Africa's economic growth rate will be reduced from 3.2%to at least 1.8%, which will cause nearly 27 million people to fall into extreme poverty.

Alfotot, chief economist of the World Grain Program; Hussein said: For a person with a million (due to the grain crisis), the new crown virus may mean disaster.A number of UN officials say Africa may be hit hard.

The latest assessment of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations shows that in the context of the global spread of the new crown epidemic, the locust stackers will face the unprecedented severe test of East Africa countries, which are fragile in East Africa.

Third, grainPanic does not rule out.

Faced with the spread of global epidemic, more and more countries are alert to the food crisis and take the lead in stocking food to restrict exports: On March 24, the world's third largest rice exporter: Vietnam announced that from March 24, rice is prohibited from rice from rice.Export; Kazakhstan, one of the world's largest wheat exporters, banned 11 kinds of agricultural products such as wheat and potatoes; Serbia announced that it has suspended export of agricultural products such as sunflower seed oil; on March 28, Egypt decided that various beans will stop in the next 3 monthsProduct export; on March 30, Cambodia Prime Minister Honor said that from April 5, Cambodia will prohibit white rice and rice exports except incense rice.

At the same time, the world's important agricultural exporter MDASH; MDASH; the Russian Ministry of Agriculture proposed to establish a temporary quota for grain exports. From April 1st-June 30th, the export volume of wheat, rye, barley and corn must not exceed 700 tons.

In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the exports of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina are also slowing. India's largest rice exporter in the world is almost stagnant.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization said that the spread of the new crown pneumonia in the world has caused labor shortage and supply chain to interrupt, which may affect food security in some countries and regions.The United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization said on the official website: Unless we take action quickly, protect the most vulnerable links, ensure that the global food supply chain is open, and alleviate the impact of the spread of the epidemic on the entire grain system, we are facing the risk of approaching the grain crisis.

The tide of grain raised by countries around the world will derive a crisis of food price.In this regard, relevant institutions have warned that countries should adopt cooperation to ensure global food supply, otherwise it will fall into a vicious cycle of grain prices soaring.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization also stated that although the main grain crops have sufficient reserves, importers are anxious to purchase main food may exacerbate global food inflation.

If all countries panic again, the price of food will soar.Once the grain production is reduced by 30%, the price of grain prices is by no means as simple as 30%.The food production cycle is up to four months.Once the grain is crisis, the world's panic that has just been needed will be far greater than the impact of an epidemic.

Author: Peng Shengyu

Strategic Researcher