If the major economies are forced to shut down again, key high -frequency indicators and wider financial conditions will undoubtedly deteriorate again.(Agence France -Presse)

Since March, I have been more agreed with the possibility of V -shaped recovery after the epidemic has caused economic recession than other commentators; although I have continued to warn that many economies will face many structural challenges in the next ten years.

But given the depth and scale of the crisis that cannot be ignored, whenever I express this optimistic attitude, I will always be refuted.With the arrival of July, many classic short -term leading and synchronization indicators are still pointing to a V -type recovery, as the Bank of England's chief economist Andy Middot; Andy Haldane pointed out.

Although the coronary virus adds a little complexity, the weekly and monthly indicators that I have long rely on still effectively implement the separation of signals and noise.During the period when I just served as the chief economist of Goldman Sachs, I assisted in formulating a global leading index index (GLI) index.Forecast financial market behavior.

Since leaving the financial industry seven years ago, I still pay attention to the public data that constitute the GLI index every month, including the US manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI), the amount of new orders relative to inventory, the number of applicants for unemployment relief in the United States every week of the weekly unemployment relief applicantsBelgian business confidence survey and South Korea's monthly export data.

If you also want to get other tips about global economic conditions, you can pay attention to the well -known PMI surveys from other countries, as well as monthly research data such as the German IFO business prosperity index.The key is that many similar indicators are also applicable to China, and they are usually more reliable than those who criticize Chinese.

In addition to these short -term leading and synchronization indicators, there are some indicators that are more concerned about financial status.When the coronary virus impacted South Korea and Italy between late February and March, people began to recognize that the crisis would expand to a global popularity. The financial market also responded to this. The major stock markets fell sharply.The financial situation is significantly tightened.

All of the above high -frequency indexes have also collapsed.Although governments in many countries have adopted a number of active measures to alleviate the impact in March and April, South Korea's exports still declined sharply, PMI indexes in various places have plummeted, and the unemployment rate of many countries (especially the United States) has risen straight.These trends are caused by the explosive spread of coronary viruses in the developed world. On the one hand, the infection rate has risen and the economy is blocked on the other hand.

Since then, the epidemic has spread in emerging and developing economies, as well as most of the United States.The emergency situation of large -scale public hygiene, coupled with the unprecedented economic blockade measures, has given a world -end -style dramatic characteristic to this crisis, and it is no wonder that many people will have the optimistic views.

Even so, the current high -frequency indicators still indicate that V -shaped recovery may occur. After all, governments around the world have adopted the economic policy countermeasures that are absolutely considered to be considered, and used unusual currency and financial measures to interfere.The scale of many national governments has far exceeded the time when the global financial crisis and decline of fighting from 2008 to 2010.

It is true that policy makers focus on economic stimuli, but the current medical and health and economic emergencies; but many most important crisis response measures will continue to play its long -term effects.For example, through the subsidy vacation plan, the measures that maintain household income when blocking the most severe blockade have increased the savings rate and transformed into future expenditure growth (if the situation allows); and this is just recently recently recently recentlyIn a few weeks, one of the many reasons for the sharp rise in the financial market index.

These phenomena may not be considered normal, but in general, this recovery means that the economy may recover.In addition, many key high -frequency indicators are also improving, and some are even quite significant.Employment data and the monthly PMI indicators of the United States, Europe, and Asia have risen for two consecutive months.

It is worth noting that although China is facing various challenges, the PMI index of Caixin Service Industry has risen from June to 108.4, a ten -year high.For those who question the effectiveness of Chinese data, remember that the index once fell to a low point of 26.5 in February.In addition, South Korea's various export data is significantly stronger than in the previous months, although it is still 11%lower than the same period last year.

But all these trends towards V -shaped recovery are obviously temporary.If the major economies are forced to shut down again, key high -frequency indicators and wider financial conditions will undoubtedly deteriorate again.However, if the blockade is still only local and temporary, and the medical and health system continues to expand the scope of virus testing, especially after the development of vaccines or more effective therapy, the economic prospects will not be as dim as many people think.

If there is indeed a V -type recovery, it is necessary to transfer attention to other affairs (such as the quality of future growth).We must not repeat the mistakes from 2009 to 2010. As far as the improvement of productivity and tolerance, the recovery at that time was far from ideal.Policy makers need to think more about imaginative and radical than ten years ago, but this is to be discussed in another comment article.

(Author Jim Oneill was the chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management Company and Minister of Finance of the UK.

English Title: A V-Shaped Recovery Could Still Happen

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020.