Dai Qingcheng: Will the election of the Hong Kong Legislative Council become day?

Early

Hong Kong and Macao Sudden Search

The crown disease in Hong Kong has recently rebounded, and the people in the society are disturbed. At the same time, as the days of the legislature re -election of the Legislative Council are getting closer, the political parties have also begun to fists and have shifted their focus to election campaign.

In the past weekend, the Democraticists joined forces to hold the primary election, and a group of candidates played the Legislative Council election in September.Although the SAR Government warned that the event may violate the Hong Kong National Security Law in advance, it is still unimpeded to vote for a large number of pan -people supporters, and multiple voting stations have long queues.

According to the number published by the group's democratic motivation of the preliminary election, about 610,000 people participated in the voting of the preliminary election.Judging from the election results of some buildings of some building owners, the non -construction schools won more than half of the seats in the Legislative Council election two months later.

Anyone who has lived in Hong Kong knows that in addition to the two large -scale elections of the Legislative Council and the District Council, the folk also often has large and small elections.For example, most residential buildings have the owner of the owner composed of the owner's election, allowing the owner to manage the affairs of the building by themselves.

In the past, Hong Kong people were not keen on politics. In addition, they were busy with their livelihoods. They did not have time to pay attention to the daily management details of the building, and indirectly created the power of the owner committee.In addition, because most owners rarely understand and participate in the election of building owner committees held every few years, the industry committee is often controlled by middle -aged and elderly owners who support the government.

However, in the past few years, citizenship in Hong Kong society has continued to improve, and more and more young people who support democracy have invested in regional affairs such as housing estate management. They hope to seize the management rights of corporations and promote community democracy in the housing estate.Multiple housing estates have followed groups and other groups.

After Hong Kong's outbreak of anti -repair campaigns last year, this trend was even more obvious. Many correctional elections have been captured one by one in the past year.For example, Tsing Yi Chang'an Village completed the anniversary of the owner on May 31, and selected a new owner's file.The 10 recommenders of the residents of the Fanmin background organized Changan Houlang, and all the old corners were overthrown in one fell swoop.

For example, in early July, the owner meeting of the large -scale house village in Tsuen Wan was held to select the owner's representative in an unnamed manner. The residents' voting was very enthusiastic.Ren Zou Bingtian was defeated by only 2442 votes.

Although the above -mentioned building corporation elections are small, they will undoubtedly have a certain reference effect on the upcoming Legislative Council election.

First of all, in Hong Kong, the establishment factions and non -construction camps have long have a certain number of concept supporters.EssenceThe political stance of these people has not been determined, and it is rare to vote for less than a critical moment.

However, after the Hong Kong anti -repair example, the citizenship consciousness of Hong Kong people has suddenly awakened, and more and more silent citizens have invested in the political movement.Judging from the enthusiastic situation of the recent election reactions of many buildings, the voting rate of the Hong Kong Legislative Council election this year will be quite high.

Secondly, there is a noun in the election.The original intention was: Drunk man disappeared on the street.He was looking for the first time under street lights, because it was relatively bright, although it was not necessarily the range of losing the key.This behavior extended to the election means that when voters compare candidates, they often like to focus on obvious single issues, not complex issues.

During the previous elections, the Hong Kong -made institutionalists and democratic schools often fired social issues that were conducive to their own ones in order to attract supporters. This is also one of the key to wins on both sides.It is worth noting that anti -repair and Hong Kong National Security Law Railway is definitely the most important issue for the Legislative Council election in September this year.Since the current mainstream atmosphere of Hong Kong's society does not support the National Security Law of Hong Kong, the hype of this issue is quite unfavorable to build.

In this case, the Hong Kong -made camp camps will inevitably face unprecedented severe challenges this year.Although the number of votes will increase due to serious political polarization, it is far less than the increase in pan -people. As a result, it will repeat the same mistakes of the district parliamentary election at the end of last year.

Of course, under the proportion representative system, the establishment of the establishment faction will occur in the direct election group that will lose most of the seats last year.It is very likely to lose all.

As for the functional group, if it is a one -person one vote, it may be difficult for the crew candidate candidates to keep the seats.The left -fledged and right reduction, the possibility of losing half of the 70 seats in the Legislative Council of 70 seats should be high.This also means that the Hong Kong Legislative Council after the return of 1997 will change for the first time, led by the Pan -Democratic faction!