Why do you go to the exchange rate of the exchanges between China and the United State

China -US wrestling is hot, and it has expanded from trade disputes two years ago to comprehensive confrontation.The American conservatives are resolutely unwilling to accept the new international pattern of polarism, and hope to suppress China to maintain its world order.Hong Kong's "01 view" pointed out earlier that China began to actively prepare for the upcoming currency war, corresponding to the next dimension of China -US wrestling.The development of the situation recently has confirmed this conjecture.When the US dollar is becoming increasingly uncertain, the Hong Kong government must also think about where the exchange rate of contact with the US dollar should go.

Fang Xinghai, the vice chairman of China Securities Regulatory Supervisor Fang Xinghai on the "2020 Caixin Summer Summit" held in Beijing on the 22nd, proposed that it is necessary to accelerate the progress of the internationalization of the RMB.Confraate.The first two points are the U.S. Federal Reserve's implementation of unlimited width to save the US economy, making the US dollar dominant international economic system full of uncertainty. Finally, the US dollar payment system has huge risks, suggesting that the United States uses the US dollar as weapons under the US dollar as early as possibleAttack the Chinese financial system.On the same day, Zhou Li, the former deputy minister of the CPC Central Committee of the CPC Central Committee, published an article entitled to actively respond to changes in the external environment in the China Social Sciences Journal. It was mentioned that six key China must actively prepare for response.Among them, the fourth point clearly wrote that "we must prepare for the US dollar hegemony and gradually realize the decoupling of RMB and the US dollar." It is believed that the U.S. dollar economic sanctions are "choking my throat" and bypassed the international settlement of RMB through the United States.The long -arm jurisdiction to achieve independent and independent.

Bloomberg: Meiyan restricts the Bank of Hong Kong

On the other side, the United States seems to be brewing the US dollar as an economic sanction in China.Recently, the Hong Kong National Security Law has been implemented in Hong Kong. US President Trump and White House consultants have been issuing messages to the outside world that there will be anti -countermeasures against China in the near future. The outside world speculates that the United States may punish China with the US dollar as a tool.Earlier, the U.S. Congress passed the Hong Kong Autonomous Act, which included a bank that punished Chinese officials related to the National Security Law, such as a bank with business exchanges, such as prohibiting its use of US dollar settlement.Chinese banks have begun to prepare for this.A few days ago, Bloomberg also quoted the news that the State Department internally discussed a series of punishment measures for the exchange of the US dollar in the Hong Kong banking industry to weaken the joint exchange system.

Whether the United States will really set off a currency war, no one can assert, but China is undoubtedly making the worst plan for this to actively promote the plan to go out of Brexit with the US dollar.The specific results of the Sino -US currency war are difficult to foresee, and it also depends on how the countries outside China and the United States treat the US dollar hegemony.However, it is certain that China is not unsatisfactory in this regard, and the United States has a considerable price in the US dollar. If the result is not good, it may even collapse the entire US dollar hegemony.

Some people look at the internationalization of light RMB, thinking that the RMB to replace the US dollar becomes hegemony and it is far from a climate.It is true that in the past, China believed that there was no need to spend a lot of effort to challenge the world order of the US dollar, so the internationalization of RMB has not increased rapidly.If China and the United States really take off on currencies, in terms of China's trade volume, the application of RMB will grow rapidly.Although the current gold still plays a certain role, the value of the world's mainstream credit currency is always based on the national productivity.The value of the US dollar is based on the economic capacity of the United States, and the RMB is also based on China's economic capabilities.China has the most complete industrial chain, and its demand and supply are strong.If the United States insists on interrupting China's US dollar, the world cannot trade with China, and the application of RMB will naturally grow.Even if China must rely on the raw materials such as oil and minerals, there are intimate countries such as Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, which are close to China.China still uses US dollar transactions, and it has to be concerned about US unilateral sanctions. Once it is fully out of China, China has no need to worry about US sanctions.

Currency lipping will hurt the dollar

And, the United States does so, the price is great.On the one hand, if there is no way in the United States to yield China in the short term, it will cultivate the RMB economic system alone in the long run.Even if the RMB cannot replace the US dollar, this will also weaken the global universality of the US dollar. By then, the US dollar will permanently lose a part of the world, and it will be permanent and heavy for the United States with the US dollar harvesting the world.Secondly, the real economy of the United States is not stimulating, and the approach to printing the US dollar to stimulate the economy is to serve its own services in the interests of countries around the world. This kind of behavior is likely to provoke the dissatisfaction of the existing US dollar hegemony, which seduces them to join the addition of the existing US dollar hegemony, which seduces them to join the addition of the existing US dollar hegemony, which seduces them to join them to joinThe ranks of weakening the US dollar status.The EU has been promoting the settlement of the euro for many years. If there is a currency war between China and the United States, the European Union is more likely to have the opportunity to take the opportunity to raise the euro status and temporarily the United States may suffer the enemy back.

At the beginning of this bone festival, Hong Kong must also think about the future of Hong Kong's proud contact rate.We cannot assert to to what extent that the currency dispute between China and the United States will be upgraded, but according to the philosophy of the United States, it is difficult to ensure that the United States will not take risks to maintain US hegemony.Once the Chinese and American currencies have a full war, the US dollar will inevitably face great volatility, and Hong Kong, as part of China, will become very passive.Hong Kong's establishment of the contact exchange rate system aims to stabilize the exchange rate and benefit the economic development of Hong Kong. However, with the economic and even currencies of the Chinese and the United States, the economic life pulse is connected to Hong Kong connected to the Mainland.How to deal with the exchange rate issue during the war, even considering the gradual change of a blue -son monetary policy instead.