Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
After the new crown epidemic in the early March was extended to the United States, the US stocks fell all the way and appeared several times.The type of rebound, until the early June Nasdaq's index recovered the soil loss, in early July, it was more frequent, and the SP500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Index also moved towards the high point before the epidemic.Why is there no soothing and economic fundamentals in the U.S. epidemic, and the economic fundamentals continue to be low, and American stocks will rise dramaticly?In the case of the high level of Taiwan stocks and US stocks (the number of relationships between March 23 and July 9), the evolution of U.S. stock trend is worthy of the attention of Taiwanese investors.
Observing the seven major factors that have caused the decline in US stocks after the outbreak of the epidemic, it can be seen that the four items such as economic fundamentals, the flood of social media, the global supply chain crisis, and the disorder of international political and economic situation are still inhibiting the market.Major risk.As for the three large technology companies, such as the risk of the credit bond market, the prevalence of systematic transactions, and the leading financial market trend, it has transformed into the driving force for the rebound of the U.S. stock.
Specifically, at the beginning of the epidemic spread, countries have implemented isolation and blockade measures to hinder daily economic activities, causing corporate revenue to shrink and rise in unemployment.Waiting for large production powers, so that it affects the global supply chain and emphasizes the economy.At the same time, the contemporary community media promoted the epidemic information and the false experts of pseudo -experts. It was circulated simultaneously, inciting the public's panic, allowing market confidence to quickly collapse, and investors sold risky assets, which caused their prices to collapse sharply.
In addition to the United States who rebuked WHO and hidden the epidemic in the mainland, it is better to shouldered the responsibility of leading international epidemic prevention and human disasters as the past, making this global epidemic loss leading center, and Northeast Asia in Northeast AsiaThe geopolitical conflict of European Europe has not diminished, and the instability of the increasing political and economic system has also increased to prevent epidemic prevention, causing the financial market to be uneasy.As a result, the overall financial environment floods the atmosphere of risks.At the same time, due to the frozen phenomenon of economic activity, the risk of the letter -rating agency has increased the risk of the corporate debt market, and investors are more worried about a large number of fallen angels (Fallenangel)Income bonds) may emerge.
However, on March 23, the Federal Statistics Association offers the abundant funds brought by the unlimited quantitative loose (QE) monetary policy, which brings a dramatic turning point to the US stocks.For example, the asset plans such as unlimited acquisition of public debt and investment -level corporate bonds were first expanded, and then expanded the scope of acquisitions, incorporated into the eligible corruption angel bonds, greatly alleviating the concerns of previous investors' concerns about corporate bonds, and stimulating the return of funds.At this time, the epidemic also signs a slight sign of the epidemic, which made the financial market become optimistic and changed to risk pursuit.
Moreover, the technology industry driven by new life -driven states during the epidemic period has also shown a significant rebound. System transactions have expanded market vitality and brought a transfer to the financial market.Before the epidemic spread, due to the high rate of benefit of US technology stocks, investors worry that the epidemic will cause the epidemic.Unexpectedly, the outbreak and the isolation policies of various countries have promoted online games, shopping, streaming platforms and other houses.The technology giants with great industrial associations for products and services have become the main force to promote the overall market.At this time, in recent years, it has been quite popular, and most of the algorithm design is a systematic transaction of the trading strategy of the trend, and it has become a assistant general, making US stocks a significant rise.
In short, the current rebound of the US stock market is due to the support of the Feds' unlimited QE to support the market, and investors are afraid of missing the opportunity to make money and boldly buy it.However, in addition to the support of scientific and technological stocks from all walks of life for future global appearance, the rest are pushing the capital market.Under the market optimism, four of the aforementioned seven factors can still be classified as the risk of dragging down US stocks.For example, the global epidemic has not seen the fading, and it is forced to force many countries to block the epidemic in areas again, which leads to the continuous downturn in production and consumer activities, and the crisis of the global supply chain interruption has not been lifted, and the recovery is more difficult to expect;Hooks, hidden in the market's fragile increase, is very easy to fluctuate with investors' emotions.Coupled with the disorder of international political and economic situation and the inferior effect of community media, I am afraid that a little wind blowing will bring the possibility of market reversal. Investors must quit and be cautious.
