Source: Reuters
The new US crown epidemic has come back, coupled with the improvement of overseas economic growth prospects, making some investors worse on the US dollar, and the US dollar's long -term rising trends are facing threats.
The US dollar index has fallen by 6%from the recent high point, and the size of the US dollar net empty warehouse on the futures market is the highest since 2018.
The BOFAGLOBALRESEARCH analyst team said that the US dollar's earlier decline this week has triggered the technical form called "death cross", that is, the 50 -day mobile moving average fell below 200 days.Move moving average.
Analysts of the bank said that since 1980, the US dollar has entered a weak period eight after nine deaths, and the mobile moving average of the 200th day has been declining, just like it is now.
The US dollar is soft at the time of the US government's response to the epidemic situation to criticize and the public protests the racial injustice. Before the US presidential election on November 3, these two factors also reduced the support of President Trump's support.Rate.At the same time, investors have increasingly believed that European economic growth will accelerate, which may narrow the gap between European and American economic performance. This gap is also a factor that boosted the US dollar in the past few years.
"If you look at the idea of American overallism, you will find that during this crisis, this idea has obviously darkened," said Karlschamotta, chief market strategist of CambridgeGlobalPayments."Growth differences are inclined in the direction that is not conducive to the United States, allowing the dollar to be in the trend."
The US dollar was weak at the beginning of the year, but in March reversed the decline.Traditional insurance assets."
With the improvement of risk preferences, it has promoted investors to reduce the shelter position and decline in the US dollar.
Recently, some investors have begun to consider the U.S. epidemic in the foreground of the US dollar.Response. There are signs that Europe seems to be more successful in controlling the epidemic.
Although US economic data has rebounded from a sharp decline earlier this year, some investors are worried that if states in the United States are because ofThe epidemic has repeatedly revoked the economic restart plan. These rally may evaporate.
"Obviously at this stage, the European Union countries have made greater progress-the United States has made greater progress-the economic trend in the United States is obviously more lagging behind, "Shaunosborne, chief foreign exchange strategist in Fengye Bank of Canada, said in a report.
The bank said that due to the" euro zone economic improvement signal and poor response to the American epidemic ", the euro will be 1.12 at the end of the year.The expectations of the dollar may be adjusted upward.
The euro against the US dollar recently reported to $ 1.1342, an increase of 6%from this year's low.
Even when the stock market soared, many investors cut offThe US dollar and other risk -free assets are also cautious. The price of gold touched the highest level since 2011, and cash holding is still at a historical high. The comprehensive reversal of risk preferences may cause investors to reduce betting on the stock market and return to the US dollar.
But for the present, some people's views on the US dollar are becoming more and more negative.. They predict that by the end of next year, the euro will rise to $ 1.20 against the US dollar. They believe that from various indicators, the US dollar will be overestimated by 10%-23%.
Analysts will beIt is said that if the U.S. Congress failed to extend some of the upcoming government's support plans for enterprises and families, the US dollar may also be damaged.The number soared, and the fiscal cliff.
