Chen Qingzhu: The US -China context is inevitable or free?

Trial Time

The strategic competition in the United States and China, as well as the differences between the value system between the two countries, exacerbated the differences in strategic and ideological differences, which caused a discussion about the upcoming of the Second Cold War.

The government led by US President Trump is convinced that China wants to provide a replacement model to create a world running counter to the US values and interests.

On the other hand, China believes that the United States cannot accept that it is a communist country and wants to change its political system from his heart.There is no strategic mutual trust between these two big powers. China believes that the United States will do everything possible to try to curb its rise.

The strategic competition between the two countries has performed the most in the Asianan region.In a sense, the Ayanian area is a swaying area.

Over the past 70 years, the United States has been the hegemon of Asia, providing strong security and economic existence.China's rise is welcomed by Southeast Asian countries. It is both an opportunity and a challenge.Although the United States has two allies of Thailand and the Philippines in the United States, because they are not concluding treaties for survival needs, they are not long -term allies in the United States like Japan or South Korea.

In recent years, the Philippines has re -adjusted the policy under the governance of President Duterte to China.It continues to maintain its military relations with the United States, although it hesitant to whether to terminate the Status of Forces Agreement.

In recent years, Thailand has gradually become the scope of China.Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Brunei are all non -ally -all -all -all -all -all -all -all -all -all -all -all -all -all -all -all -all -all -all -iance country. Laos and Cambodia used to be a socialist country and now have close relations with China.Therefore, in the game of consolidating influence and support, Southeast Asia is an open area for competition in the United States and China.

Southeast Asia Chengmei -China Games Arena

Some analysts believe that Southeast Asia has now become the new gaming of the big country, which will have a disturbing impact on Asianan, and the South China Sea will be the place where the United States and China are directly confronted.

Although the parties to the South China Sea territorial dispute are China, Taiwan, and the four sovereignty of the sovereignty of Mdash; Mdash; the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Vietnam, the United States plays a pivotal role in the region.These countries are the only power that can effectively check and balance China.

The Seventh Fleet of the U.S. Navy, which represents the global superpowers and the dominant power of the region, defends the freedom of navigation and flying over the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea.China's nine -segment line proposition, and its increasingly active actions of land reclamation and military assembly in the South China Sea, not only alienated the Simpan Sound of Asia, exacerbated the concerns of the region, but also caused the possibility of conflict between the United States and China to sharprise.

In response, the U.S. Navy's regular and strong freedom of navigation in this area has led to frequent confrontation between the two navy.In October 2018, USS Decatur, the US Navy's missile destroyer, almost collided with Chinese warships on the Spritly Islands (China known as the Nansha Islands).

Both the United States and China are signed countries of the Code for Unplanned Encounters ata. This 2014 agreement is designed to reduce the probability of accidents and prevent conflict upgrade.Both parties expect that meeting in the South China Sea will become the norm, and the goal is that these encounters will not cause conflicts.

The United States and China hope to avoid war

Nevertheless, the two countries are likely to have war due to accidents.If this happens, people want to repeat the ending of the EP-3 reconnaissance aircraft incident in 2001.At that time, a US reconnaissance aircraft in the coast of China collided with a Chinese fighter attempt to drive it, causing the former to surrender to Hainan Island and the latter crashed.The new Conservative Eagle person's Donate Bush administration immediately launched a tricky diplomatic action.Fortunately, former President Bush, former national security adviser Brent Middot; Brent Scowcroft and former Secretary of State Colin Middot; Colin Powell were adopted.The United States and China were tense, and finally thought that it was not worth a war.

President Trump, who is now in power, does not want to have a war again, because it will damage his election prospects and the US economy.During the 2016 campaign, he promised to end the war, but his consultants were eagle.Today's China is of course much stronger than in 2001, but considering the weak economy in China and many internal problems that recover from the 2019 Coronary Virus epidemic, Chinese President Xi Jinping may also want to avoid war.

Will the US -China war out of the outbreak of Taiwan?For a long time, the issue of China Viewing Bay is the core interest, and it has always believed that Taiwan will inevitably be unified with the mainland.However, Taiwan and the US Congress, the State Council and the Pentagon have a long -term connection.

In addition, the Taiwan Relations Law also stipulates that once Taiwan is attacked by mainland China, the United States has the obligation to help Taiwan.The United States' defense allies in Asia, such as Australia and Japan, must abide by their defense agreement and help Taiwan with such attacks with the United States.

However, in 2003, when the then President of the United States, Bush, then, visited the United States at that time, Chen Shui -bian, who promoted provocative strategies on cross -strait issues at the time, issued clear information.Bush said: We are against any unilateral change of the status quo in China or Taiwan.The words and deeds of Taiwan's leaders show that he may want to make a unilateral decision to change the status quo, which we oppose.

Precautions for Taiwan Jurisha for Independence

The bottom line has stabilized cross -strait relations for many years.However, the White House sitting in Trump has a different attitude close to ideology on the Taiwan issue.This may lead to confrontation with China, causing the two sides to make an impulsive reaction.In January 2020, after the Taiwan election, a U.S. warship via the Taiwan Strait.This may be a response to the two aircraft carriers in Shandong before the Chinese election in Taiwan.The Trump administration is publicly helping Taiwan to expand diplomatic space. It has passed the 2019 Taiwan Allied International Guarantee and Strengthening Initiative, namely the Taipei Act.The bill expanded the scope of relations between Washington and Taipei and promised to help Taiwan participate in international organizations.

In the inauguration of her second president, Tsai Ing -wen did not mention the 1992 consensus in Beijing and Taipei. She also insisted that the past government opposed the use of one country, two systems to resolve the dispute with Taiwan.She said: Cross -strait relations are at a historical turning point. Both sides have a responsibility to seek the way to get along for the long run and avoid the expansion of opposition and differences.

China has a dedication to Cai Yingwen's independence.In May of this year, when the Chinese State Council Premier Li Keqiang issued a report on Taiwan -related work at a meeting of the people, he only mentioned unification and no peace; peaceful unity is a standard for the Taiwan policy.As a result, people have speculated that China will take a stronger position on the Taiwan issue.

At a subsequent press conference, Li Keqiang reiterated when answering a question of a Taiwan newspaper that China always adhered to a Chinese principle and resolutely opposed Taiwan independence.He also said that Beijing is willing to do its best and the greatest effort to promote the peace and unity of the motherland.

Although the word peace is referred to, I will not interpret it as the position in China to change the work report, but China has issued a signal that does not rule out any unified options.The Taiwan issue is worthy of our attention.

Non -Re -Acting Cold War of the United States and the Soviet Union

Then there is the current Hong Kong issue.The U.S. government stood on the side of the demonstrator and passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democratic Acts in 2019 in Congress.In 2020, with the implementation of the Hong Kong National Security Law in China, the Trump administration has canceled the special status given to Hong Kong in the United States.

Whether in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait or Hong Kong, for many reasonsNeither the United States nor China wants to conflict with each other, but they will push their positions to the greatest extent.For China, Taiwan and Hong Kong are core interests, and recently it also defines South China Sea as its core interests.For the United States, this is related to the credibility of the security guarantee and the role of dominant power in this area.

The main concern of this area is that the two major powers broke out of conflict or war due to accidents.

However, have we entered the Second Cold War?Former US Secretary of State Kissinger, who has experienced the first Cold War, said in November 2019: We are at the foothills of the Cold War.Former Australian Prime Minister Lu Kewen said that this was the Cold War version 1.5.

In my opinion, the scientific and technological warfare has been launched, and the visa of Chinese students and scientists has been rejected because the subjects they studied involved computer engineering, artificial intelligence and biomedicine.This is a Cold War.But economically, the United States and its allies want to participate in China's growth market.The United States cannot make China refuse, and Europe and other countries will not be in an isolated China with the United States.

Economic and military are two aspects of the Cold War structure.Economically, the two camps are politically politically; in the military, the US and the Soviet army start a positive confrontation.

Based on the reasons I mentioned, the competition in the United States and China did not have the economic situation in the Cold War; in military, I don't think that the United States and China will conflict at this stage.

Therefore, this is not the recurrence of the Cold War of the United States and the Soviet Union.However, small and medium -sized countries, including Singapore, will face the same pressure from both sides and ask them to make choices in this competition.

The author is the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Ambassador, the chairman of the Lee Guangyao Innovation City Center of Singapore University of Science and Technology Design, and has served as the Singapore Ambassador to the United States.

This article is an excerpt from the author's lecture on the 7th Singapore Policy Research Institute MDASH; Nadan's series of lectures.Originally, the South China Morning Post was originally carried on July 2.

Golden Shun Translation