Early Hong Kong and Macao Sudden Search

Yi Ruimin

Last week, the shareholders of Hong Kong were amazed: After 16 years of experience in SMIC, they finally returned to their hometown, and the stock price returned to the prospects of the offer price when it was listed.

SMIC was listed in Hong Kong in March 2004 with a listing price of HK $ 2.69.At that time, mainland China began to engage in scientific and technological reforms, hoping to catch up with the Western level, and SMIC was highly hoped.Unfortunately, the stock price has been floating in the past 10 years, and finally in December 2016, the share price is ten. Since there is no dividend since the listing, the listing price is equivalent to HK $ 26.9.Last week, the stock price broke through this barrier in one breath.

By yesterday, SMIC's stock price was surprised to shareholders. The closing of the market was HK $ 40.1, that is, less than HK $ 20 in early June, the stock price doubled in just one month.The rising single plan yesterday exceeded more than 20 %.

Although Hong Kong stocks rose by nearly a thousand points with the soaring A -share yesterday, it can be said that almost any stocks have risen, but SMIC's performance is still bright.The two major reasons have caused attention: SMIC's return to A -share science board and mainland chip production capacity shortages.

Zhou Zixue, Chairman of SMIC International, said at an online investor exchange meeting yesterday that the company's return to A shares this time is a milestone for the company and mainland capital markets.Improve competitiveness.

However, China and the United States are constantly upgrading. The United States has implemented export controls on many Chinese companies. Zhou Zixue said that SMIC's operating goals and expansion plans this year are not affected.As for when can I buy the first polar ultraviolet light carvings (EUV) machine?He said that the current production does not require the machine.

In fact, calculated at 27.46 yuan per share at the issue price of SMIC, the price -earnings ratio is as high as 109 times, and the Group's technology is not the most advanced, and it seems a bit expensive on the surface.However, because there are no other choices in the mainland or Hong Kong market, analysts generally recognize that it is worth giving a higher valuation.

Some analysts also believe that the amount of SMIC's listing raises is too small, because the factories that expand 14 nanometers alone will use 12 billion US dollars.Even if all the excess and sale will be exercised this time, it is expected to raise only RMB 53.2 billion.

The mainland has a great demand for high -quality chips. Many global chip companies do not dare to ship to the mainland because of the US warning, which indirectly improves the demand for domestic chips in mainland China.Therefore, SMIC is actively expanding 14 nanometer capacity, and it is estimated that 95%of chip foundry needs will be met.

It can be said that it is because of the resistance of the United States that SMIC is in the early days.After Zhongxin became the first A+H semiconductor company in the mainland, I believe that the value of the SMIC's market can exceed 200 billion yuan.

Some people describe the current China, like guarding the wealth, and the new four inventions (high -speed rail, online shopping, mobile payment and shared bicycles) in the past 10 years, and have a dream of the rise of a strong country.It was not until the US trade embargo of the United States before the ZTE years that the country was surprised that the basic scientific research other than Startup and stock trading seriously lacked attention and patience, so that the core chip technology lags behind for decades.Once the West is sever, the mainland may return to the 2G era. At that time, what Taobao, WeChat, and online games are also empty.

Now it is Huawei's turn to be suppressed by the United States, which has stimulated the nationalist emotions of the mainland, so that 1.4 billion Chinese people support Huawei with their enemies, and they have proposed to buy Huawei's mobile phones, computers, tablets and other products.

Although China's scientific and technological strength is obvious from the United States, it has accumulated a certain strength.Huawei can use 30 years to reach the forefront of world communication technology, which has proven China's scientific and technological creativity.

In the field of chip design and seal testing, China is no longer behind the world, but there is a significant gap between production and world level.However, the mainland also has its own photoresia. Even if it does not rely on the United States, it can produce its own chips. It will definitely achieve technical breakthroughs in fake time.

Last year, SMIC began to mass -produce 14 nanometers and is Huawei's foundry Kirin 710A processor.Of course, SMIC also prompts the risk of not developing.SMIC pointed out that advanced craftsmanship generally push forward one to three years. For example, the industry leaders mass produced 16 nanometers or 14 nanometers in 2015, 10 nanometers were produced in 2016, and seven nanometers were mass -produced in 2018.EssenceIf the factory's craftsmanship fails to keep up, it will lose the market.

Looking back at SMIC, only 14 nanometers are made today. Of course, it is far from the industry leader, but due to US sanctions against China, SMIC will definitely have a market.For example, according to the industry leader, the SMIC is from 14 nanometers to five nanometers. It has a road of more than five years. If there is a US obstruction in the middle, it will be longer.

In 2020, CSI launched a new round of capital expenditure of $ 4.3 billion, an increase of 115%year -on -year compared to US $ 2 billion in 2019. There is national capital support behind it.With a breakthrough of 14 nanometers, these support SMIC's capital expenditure and capital investment density, which may continue to increase.

In any case, SMIC's return to A shares will be enthusiastically supported by shareholders, showing the support of the Chinese people in national enterprises, and SMIC will be bright.On the contrary, China currently imports $ 300 billion in chips each year. If U.S. technology companies have lost China's largest market, and the final revenue is reduced, it has to reduce investment in scientific research. Perhaps, it eventually hinders its own scientific and technological progress.