Lus: In the simulated U.S. election, three of the four games were the result of the United States in the constitutional deadlock at the end of the election.The most realistic hope of the peaceful transition is that one party has achieved an overwhelming victory.
Imagine that Donald Bull; Donald Trump won the majority of the election group voting with obvious advantages.The United States was in a turbulent.Cities around the world are holding a candlelight at night for the United States' democracy. Some smaller Democrats have also joined the ranks of California to threaten Calexit.The major unions planned to hold a major strike to put pressure on the CEOs, asking them to support most people in the United States.
Fair, Joe Bull; Joe Biden won the voting of 6 million Mdash; mdash; 52%of the former, and the latter was 47%.Due to the raging of the new coronary virus and the absence of voting, the voting rate was very low.However, Trump was elected again based on these rules.Which court of the United States dares to question this result?
As the saying goes, there is no problem.American judges, governors, and chief executives should roll around the above prospects.Over the past 20 years, the presidential candidate for the US election has happened twice after losing Popular Vote.
In 2000, the US Supreme Court terminated the re -counting of Florida votes with a 5-4 voting results.Al Bull; Al Gore referred to George Bull; wbull; George W Bush, although the complete votes may make the result in the direction of Gore.In 2016, Trump won the majority of the Electronic College, although his general votes were 3 million less than Hillary Clinton.This kind of thing is likely to happen again in November this year.This time, no one will play the set of Queensberry Rules.
Now that it is different from 2000, Americans are more likely to treat their opponents as enemies rather than competitors.The hostility today is reminiscent of the election held before the American civil war in 1860.
In the year, Gor did not oppose the Supreme Court because he was too maintained.To this day, if Biden sacrifice most of the people in the United States for outdated altar for the unity of the country, it will be labeled by most people in his party.
If Trump has been in power for 4 years, which institutions can stay?During his first term, people saw that almost all rules were despised. Who still had reason to expect a free and fair election in 2024?
The Pentagon of the United States has always believed that military exercises are essential.Seeing a wide range of character players will have a clearer understanding of how military upgrades develop.The same is true of the election battlefield.Among the four simulated U.S. elections organized by the Transition Integrity Project, the result of three results was that the United States Federal Republic will fall into a constitutional stalemate at the end of January 2021.The transitional plan is a non -party organization, Rosa Bull; Rosa Brooks and Berggruen Institute;)create.
Even in the fourth scenario, Biden has won general votes and election groups with obvious advantages, and there are still controversy.Trump will only agree to leave after Biden promised to give him a paper pardon order.
We should worry about the other three scenes.Just like the situation I mentioned above, MDASH; mdash; the author helped play the role of the media mdash; mdash; President's office is a huge advantage.The uniqueness of the United States is that before transferring power to the winner, the president who is about to step down can enjoy another 10 weeks of power mdash; MDASH; including nuclear buttons.
When the defeated president is Jimmy Carter (Jimmy Carter) or George Bull; hwbull; George Hw Bush, mdash; mdash; the two President mdash; mdash; this is the same thing.EssenceThey reflect fair competition.But if the loser is Trump, the situation will be completely different.As the saying goes, there is a cloud: reality possession, defeated one victory nine.
In several other simulated elections, Biden first won with a weak advantage, and the election group did not draw a decisive result.In these two scenarios, Trump threatened to fed the National Guard to distort or stop the re -voting of the controversy.The US Minister of Justice Bill Bull; Bill Barr will help the Republican Parliament to approve the results of the Governor of Democratic Party.The four states of the State Council of Pennsylvania, Wisconson, Michigan, and North Carolina have been controlled by the two shed states.In each scenario, Trump took advantage of his office.The Supreme Court kept outside.
These are not far -fetched.No matter who participates in the simulation election, no one will question Trump's instinct.Participating in these simulated elections are some senior law and politicians, as well as former government officials, divided into Republicans and Democrats.These are exercises rather than prediction.However, participants are basically convinced that the only prospect of the United States to achieve a peaceful transition will be the overwhelming victory in any candidate in the November election of this year.
Since Trump has almost no chance to win universal votes, the most realistic hope of maintaining the stability of the United States will be Biden's overwhelming victory.Today's poll shows that Biden will easily win.But Biden's leading advantage may be reduced in the next 18 weeks.The closer to the end of this game, the more we should not worry about it.Democracy in the United States is moving towards the most important stress test.
Translator/He Li
