The 2019 coronary virus epidemic has led to a global economic suspension, market demand has fallen, trade and investment have fallen significantly, and the global industrial chain and supply chain are about to undergo profound changes.Although China quickly controls the epidemic with the advantages of the national system and has successively resumed production in various places, the uncertainty and risks faced by the Chinese economy have continued to rise, and the economic recovery is still under great pressure.
In the past 10 years, China has become the only engine of global economic growth. In 2019, China ’s contribution to global economic growth has reached 39%.It can be said that China's policy and strategic choice after this epidemic will determine the economic trends of China and the world in the next decades.
From the perspective of driving economic growth, in terms of exports, the impact of the epidemic, countries around the world are facing an unprecedented severe crisis. As a result, the globalization process may temporarily slow down, and even the situation of staged reversal may appear. This will be directly.As a result, China's export volume decreased significantly and international trade atrophy.Therefore, relying on exports to drive economic growth alone, it seems that it is unsustainable, and the future is worrying.
From the perspective of consumption, according to statistics, the contribution rate of consumption to China's economic growth in 2019 was 57.8%, driving economic growth by 3.5 percentage points, and six consecutive years became the main driving force for economic growth.
However, this epidemic occurred in the first quarter of China's consumption demand for the annual consumption, and it will undoubtedly seriously affect the contribution rate of consumer expenditure to economic growth in the short term.On the other hand, although the epidemic has basically entered the normalization, due to the conservative expectations of the people in the future, retaliatory consumption has not occurred.Based on the above analysis, only by increasing investment can we re -promote the sustainable and healthy development of China's economy.
Entering 2020, the connotation of new infrastructure is continuously enriched and improved.Recently, the China National Development and Reform Commission has clarified the definition of new infrastructure, which is led by new development concepts, driven by technological innovation, and based on information networks, facing the needs of high -quality development, providing digital transformation, intelligent upgrade, and integration innovation innovationInfrastructure system for services.The new infrastructure mainly includes three major aspects of information infrastructure, integration infrastructure and innovative infrastructure.
This large -scale new infrastructure plan is an important measure to stimulate the economy after the epidemic in the short term; from the long run, it will inevitably affect the regional trade and East Asian geographical patterns in the next 30 years or more.
New infrastructure should not repeat the same mistakes
The new infrastructure and 4 trillion are the same economic stimulus plan.In 2008, China took advantage of the four trillion plans to hedge the negative impact of the financial crisis and played a vital role in stabilizing the global economy.On the other hand, the four trillion plans have significantly increased the speed and amplitude of economic growth, and established China's advantages and core positions in the international economic order in the post -crisis period.
However, the four trillion plans depend on fiscal policy. During the implementation, there are phenomena such as emergency effort, excessive force, and excessive motivation, which directly leads to problems such as overcapacity, increasing resource mismatch, and high asset prices.Essence
Comprehensively promote the support of new infrastructure, so we should learn and vigilant 4 trillion experience lessons, and summarize the gains and losses in the process of investment and financing.At the same time, we must integrate innovative thinking and implement the concept of development, so as to meet the capital needs of new infrastructure.
New infrastructure requires a new financing system: 1. Government finance should give full play to the role of capital guidance.At present, the Chinese government's leverage ratio is still at a low level in the world. In order to restore the rate of economic growth as soon as possible, the central government can imitate other countries, appropriately increase leverage, and support qualified new infrastructure projects by issuing special government bonds.
At the same time, local governments should improve the investment and financing mechanism, do a good job of top -level design and overall planning, adhere to the basic ideas of funds and follow the project, set up industrial development guidance funds, and attract social capital in the market to fully participate in the construction of new infrastructure projects.
2. Financial institutions should fully support new infrastructure.The new infrastructure project emphasizes scientific and technological innovation. For example, artificial intelligence and big data platforms are all intellectual -intensive light asset industries. Compared with traditional infrastructure projects with a large amount of capital scale and a long investment recovery periodEssenceTherefore, financial institutions should jump out of the rules and regulations of the past business to meet the capital needs of new infrastructure with innovative thinking and model.
In terms of banking, the total liquidity of the banking system is currently at a reasonable and abundant level, and the funds are relatively abundant.In addition, by further deepening the reform of the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) reform, the central bank has promoted the actual interest rate level of loans to reduce the economic and social development after the epidemic.Various banks must make full use of this round of policy dividends to optimize the precise support of credit structure.
As far as commercial banks are concerned, the approval of new infrastructure projects should be thorough and rigorous. Avoid problems such as blind and disorderly construction, repeated construction, and over -construction in traditional infrastructure projects to ensure the operability and sustainability of the project.On this basis, commercial banks can use financial instruments such as loans, financial leasing, debt issuance, and bonds to provide personalized and differentiated financing services for new infrastructure projects.
In addition, other financial institutions should also use their respective directors to assist in solving the problem of insufficient funds for new infrastructure projects.Under the premise of compliance with relevant policies and regulations, trust agencies can set up trust plans or investment funds for individual projects, and through long -term debt funds, they can drain the purpose of social capital to the new infrastructure field.On the other hand, trust institutions can join forces with insurance institutions to use the characteristics of low cost of insurance capital and beneficial to medium- and long -term investment to solve the difficult problems of the project construction period and difficulty matching investment funds.
According to statistics, listed companies that have landed in the Kyoto Board are mainly engaged in the new generation of information technology, biotechnology, new materials and high -end manufacturing industries, and the proportion of new generation of information technology companies is as high as 45%.On April 27, the 13th meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China comprehensively deepened the reform committee reviewed and approved the overall implementation plan of the GEM reform and the pilot registration system. Through this round of reform, the GEM will also learn from the successful practice of the pilot registration system of the science and technology board.Make the listing threshold more diverse, and the transaction mechanism is more flexible.In the future, securities institutions should encourage and help more companies with technology+infrastructure attributes and truly develop prospects on their two boards based on their own characteristics and industry nature, so that they can directly attract and use various investors (institutions or individuals) funds from various types of investors (institutions or individuals).Essence
On April 30, the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly issued a notice on promoting the pilot related work of the real estate investment trust fund (REITs) in the infrastructure sector, which is undoubtedly an innovative exploration of new infrastructure widening financing channels.
Since the reform and opening up, with the development of China's economy, large -scale stock real estate, especially infrastructure assets.This type of assets occupy a large amount of funds, poor liquidity, and urgently need to be revitalized. As an asset financing model (non -debt financing), REITs can increase infrastructure construction investment without increasing debt leverage.Carrier.It can be said that REITs is an inevitable choice for real estate from the era of incremental.
On the other hand, for a long time in the past, the rate of return on infrastructure investment is low, and the recent domestic risk -free interest rate has declined sharply, which has made REITs have a economic sense.At the same time, REITs provides a new type of product between traditional stocks and bonds for the financial market, which is conducive to transforming private savings into investment and alleviating funding tensions to a certain extent.However, there are problems such as infrastructure valuations and related laws, taxes, and risks in the practical operation of REITs, which requires planning and proper treatment in advance.
Public and private cooperation is an important infrastructure tool
Third, improve and innovate the private cooperation (PPP) model.Since the new infrastructure is a relatively new field, related industrial characteristics, business models, investment and financing needs, and capital use have not yet been fully clarified. In additionStill with a conservative and cautious attitude.
Since the outbreak of the crown disease,The Chinese Ministry of Finance issued four documents about PPP.This series of files establish a PPP will still be an important policy tool for China's infrastructure investment and financing, and it will also help improve the rule of law environment of PPP projects.
At present, most new infrastructure projects (data centers, 5G, Internet of Things, etc.) are actually large -scale and basic links of industrial interconnection, smart cities, blockchain and other large -scale and long cycle projects. The demand for investment and financing will continue.However, it should also be clearly realized that some new infrastructure projects are difficult to directly achieve benefits through market competition, which requires governments at all levels to lead and support.However, some irregular pseudo -PPP projects have appeared in the past period of time. Some local governments have committed a series of illegal operations such as the loss of social capital to the social capital party to pay the revenue from the social capital party.Hidden debt of local governments.
Therefore, during the implementation of the PPP project of the new infrastructure, local governments must accurately and objective assessment of their own financial conditions, touch the amount of funds that can be used for new infrastructure projects, and reduce blind investment.In addition, local governments should design transparent and compliant fiscal expenditure paths for specific new infrastructure projects to ensure the smooth implementation of the PPP project.
Fourth, relaxation restrictions, attract foreign funds to participate in new infrastructure.Starting from April 1 this year, the restrictions on the proportion of foreign -funded shares of China Fund Management Corporation in China was officially canceled; on May 7th, for many years of qualified foreign institutional investor system (QFII), the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange releasedThe management regulations on domestic securities and futures investment funds of overseas institutional investors have clarified and simplified the requirements of foreign institutional investors' domestic securities and futures investment funds, and further facilitated overseas investors to participate in China's financial markets.
The role of the new rules in the Chinese market is more prominent, which can attract more overseas qualified investors to lay out in China and enter the Chinese capital market.At present, the situation of overseas funds has increased significantly through qualified overseas limited partners (QFLP).
In this round of new infrastructure, QFLP can further let go of the market access policy for investment in the infrastructure field, appropriately increase the degree of convenience of QFLP funds to participate in investment physical projects, reduce the cost of overseas capital participation projects, and dredge the channels of funds out of funds.Promote more overseas funds to assist new infrastructure projects.
The author is a researcher at the Hong Kong Tianda Research Institute
