He Xianqing
On June 15, Chinese and Indian soldiers mdash; mdash; MDASH; MDASH; severe bleeding conflict.According to the latest media reports, this conflict has killed 20 people in India, and China also had casualties, but did not disclose specific figures.This is also the first bleeding conflict after 45 years after a lapse of China and India.
The occurrence of this conflict was shocking.On June 6, the military's military held a long -term military talks at the Mooredo -border talks, and conducted consultations on the crisis of the Lawan Valley and Bandong Lake in the border since May of the two armies.After the consultation, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the two parties stated that the differences would not rise to maintain peace and peace in the border area to maintain the differences in the dispute.
Many details of the incident have not yet been made public. Both parties blame each other's unilateral action, but this conflict reflects a restraint characteristic.Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian and a spokesman for the western theater Zhang Shuoli all said: The Indian Army violated the commitment, once again crossed the actual control line illegal activities, deliberately launched a provocative attack, causing fierce physical conflict between the two sides and causing casualties.
The Indian government spokesman Anurag Srivastavava said: Chinese soldiers tried to unilaterally change the original actual control line, leading to violent confrontation.
Although more details are not public, there are two characteristics of this conflict worthy of attention: First, both soldiers of the two countries did not use guns and other weapons, but instead used tools such as stones, wooden sticks, etc.Second, although the two sides have accused the other party from provoking their incidents, they both expressed their willingness to use dialogue talks to achieve peace and tranquility in boundary areas.On the one hand, it reflects the difficulty of the dilemma of the two countries in the border areas and the unavoidable conflict; on the other hand, it also shows that the two parties intend to maintain restraint and avoid the willingness to upgrade the conflict on a large scale.
Based on the development of the recent Chinese and Indian border incidents, the direct fuse of this incident may be related to India's attempt to cross the actual control line for related facilities. It is also the direct consequence of the Modi government's long -term implementation of the Hindu nationalist policy.
Since May of this year, the border conflict of the western China and India has roughly experienced three stages.
First, India has been in the actual control line of the Sino -Indian border region to carry out the construction of transportation infrastructure and military frontiers.India, which has previously built roads near the real control line of the China -India border, suddenly crossed the actual control line near Ban Gonghu in early May and entered the actual control area in China, which immediately caused confrontation between the two sides.
Second, India expands the scope of the event. After the operation of the cross -border near Ban Gonghu, it also enters the Laowan River Valley area located in the northwest of Ban Gonghu to promote highway construction, and the two parties have reconciled again.In addition, on May 9, the Indian Army also entered the MDASH; mdash; the Sikkim section of the middle section of the Sino -Indian border also triggered a conflict between the two armies.
Third, on June 15th, a direct bleeding conflict occurred in the Lawan Valley area again.
Judging from the evolution of the situation, India is more likely to cross the border again, and Chinese officials have also used the expression of illegal activities over the actual control line again.In fact, the gap between the comprehensive strength of the two countries, India has always had concerns and distrust of China's existence in the border areas. In recent yearsSupply capabilities to enhance deterrence and balance of China.
According to the Hindu report, in order to strengthen the infrastructure construction in the border region of China -India, India will allocate 7.84 billion rubles (approximately S $ 140 million) in fiscal year in fiscal.The Border Area Development Program (BADP), which is mainly used for infrastructure construction in various state -states of the China -India border.The Indian Ministry of the Interior also stipulates that 10%of these funds must be used for infrastructure construction of roads, bridges, hospitals and other infrastructure such as roads within 10 kilometers of the China -India border; and cities and villages with important strategic significance that the Indian border defense army thinks will give priority to priorityGet financial support.
In fiscal 2019, this data reached 8.25 billion rubles.It can be seen that this border conflict incident is more about the direct result of India's strengthening infrastructure construction in border areas.
Hindu ethnicism is rising
Since Modi ruling, India's Hindu nationalism has risen, and China is one of the focus of the nationalist mood.Although India today is a major federal country with 1.3 billion people, India's central land contradictions, racial contradictions, religious contradictions and other social and political issues are prominent. It has long lacked a strong and fully integrated ideology.
The reason why Modi was able to be elected by Indian Prime Minister in 2014 and was re -elected in 2019, which is related to the two magic weapons he owned: one is incitement of Hindu nationalist emotions; second, the development expectations of the development of reform as the banner is expectedEssenceIn 2019, Modi was re -elected shortly after being re -elected, and two policies with strong Hindu nationalist colors were launched. First, in the form of domestic legislation, the Indian -controlled Kashmir area was officially upgraded to two central direct jurisdictions: Jammo and Kashmir directThe jurisdiction and Ladaka Central Government.
Ladak's central area contains the Aksaiqin area with territorial disputes in China.This not only triggers a direct military conflict between India and Pakistan, but also caused serious protests in China.It can be seen that the paranoid nationalist movement of the Indian government has laid a foreshadowing for the Sino -Indian border conflict.
In addition, the influence of raging epidemic and the influence of economic deterioration increases India's nationalist emotions.Although statistical data show that India's total domestic product (GDP) in 2019 exceeds the United Kingdom and ranks fifth in the world, according to Indian media reports, India's economic growth in 2019 has actually reached a new low in nearly 12 years.Only 4.2%.According to World Bank data, India's economic growth has continued to decline since 2016.
For such a country with a huge poverty and in the development stage, the slowdown in economic growth may cause a serious political crisis.For example, in 2019, India has risen due to the price of onions, causing large -scale march riots.Nowadays, the crown disease epidemic has raged the world. As of June 22, India has accumulated more than 420,000 diagnosis cases, ranking fourth in the world.Due to concerns about economic growth and high unemployment rate, India began to lift the blockade on June 8.This is likely to cause a large -scale outbreak of the Indian epidemic.
According to the forecast of economic cooperation and Development Organization (OECD), if the Indian epidemic outbreaks, India's economic growth rate may be further reduced to 7.3%.India's complicated population and relatively backward health and medical facilities have faced greater pressure on resistance, and their expectations for economic growth have also been significantly reduced.This has made India urgently need to reduce or transfer the attention of the domestic anti -resistance and economic deterioration through a striking focus.
The conflict of the Sino -Indian border reflects many dilemma of the relationship between the two countries.India's distrust and concerns about China, as well as curbing and prevention caused by this, is the main cause of the predicament of Sino -India relations.In recent years, India ’s strong Hindu nationalist emotions have deepened the dilemma of China -India relations.
With the increasingly realistic game of India -Pacific geopolitical games, India has great expectations for their international status.India's action in the Indian Ocean; the Pacific region may be more active; the interests of China and India may have more collisions.
From the perspective of the recent development of the Sino -Indian border conflict, neither countries did not want to break the relationship between the two countries due to boundaries.Therefore, in the future, maintaining prudential is vital to maintaining the overall situation of the relationship between the two countries, but both countries must have a decision to surpass each other's relationship.
The author is an assistant researcher at the South China Sea Research Institute
The conflict of the Sino -Indian border reflects many dilemma of the relationship between the two countries.India's distrust and concerns about China, as wellControl and prevention is the main cause of the predicament of Sino -India relations.In recent years, India ’s strong Hindu nationalist emotions have deepened the dilemma of China -India relations.
