Written article: Xiao Yu

China -India broke out in the La Wan Valley the first bleeding conflict since 1975.Lin Minwang, a researcher at the International Institute of International Issues of Fudan University, pointed out in an exclusive interview with Hong Kong 01 that India does not have a correct mentality when dealing with China, and the border issues of China and all neighboring countries are leaving India and unreasonable, which can also explain some problems.

01: The conflict of the La Wan Valley is by far the most serious physical conflict broke out by the China -India military. It is also the first time that soldiers have died in the border friction since 1975. India said at least 20 soldiers were killed in the conflict. ChinaNo specific casualties are announced.How do you comment on this?

Lin Minwang: In the past many years, the confrontation between China and India borders has often occurred, and there are several large scale, such as the tent confrontation incident in 2013, the confrontation that lasts for nearly three weeks in 2014, and the Donglang confrontation that is generally concerned.The conflict in the Galwan Valley this time is indeed not the same as before, and the casualties have appeared, which indicates that the incident is being upgraded.

Looking back on the entire process, the confrontation has begun on April 5th. On June 6, the highest -level commander of the two troops of the two sides had reached a consensus, and the army began to get out of contact, including the La Wan Valley area.However, on the evening of June 15, Indian soldiers suddenly rushed into the Chinese actual control line, and both sides have not disclosed until so far.The information I got on the Indian media was that Colonel India led people to cross the line for the first time, and the first physical conflict occurred. Colonel India was withdrawn after being injured.Subsequently, the captain of his subordinates brought more soldiers, and the second off -line burned the Chinese tents and other facilities, which caused more intense physical conflicts.The conflict lasted from night to the next day, and the scale was still large.

India comes in the evening.After the signing of the Treaty Treaty Treaty of China and India in 1996, the two parties reached an agreement that the border actual controlled area could not use guns, so we used weapons such as stones and sticks to attack each other. It can be imagined how serious this would cause serious injuries.

The death data given by the Indian side has changed, adding 17 people in the future.The local geographical environment was harsh, and the plateau was in the evening. The timely rescue of India did not keep up, resulting in the expansion of casualties.There are no accurate numbers yet, but there must be a lot of casualties.

In addition, after all, it is a fight, and it is difficult for China to have no casualties. Chinese officials also said that both sides have casualties.I think the Chinese government's approach is correct now. After all, it is an accident, or I hope to reduce it.China does not want the situation to rise, so it has not announced specific casualties.When the casualties report, no one will talk about which party occupies the upper hand or which party has suffered a loss. If detailed data is announced, the opposition of the people of both parties will intensify immediately.However, as India completely blames the Chinese side, I think that China must consider publishing the situation of casualties, and to clarify the ins and outs of the incident in detail.

It is particularly worth noting that after the Sino -Indian war in 1962, China did not publish casualtic data. It has been substantially taught India, so don't let Nehru too lose face.Therefore, it is estimated that China does not publish the casualties data. It is estimated that it follows the same logic as that year, which will communicate well and provide conditions for the situation to cool down.

01: Why did China only respond in the name of the Western theater?How to look at the statement of China?Can the two sides reach a tacit understanding that does not expand the situation?

Lin Minwang: I think the Chinese spokesman clearly speaks very clearly.First, things originated from India's provocations and violated their commitments. If they were casualties, they should be responsible for themselves.Secondly, China fulfilled the basic humanitarian responsibility and also released information that does not want to expand the situation.China's position and gesture are already very clear, and from the moral level, the standing position is also very high.

As for reaching a consensus, I don't think it is so fast. Now India has not fully figured out the basic situation. How many people have been disappeared and have been captured by the Chinese side and how many people have been injured.I feel that their media information is not accurate and often changes, so it takes time to start.

01: Some observers believe that China needs a solid peripheral environment, and the impact of the epidemic, so it focuses on domestic people's livelihood and economy, which has caused misunderstandings in India and understands China's restraint as weakness.What do you think of this interpretation?

Lin Minwang: So I think that China's approach is more right, unintentionally rendering casualties, and not allowing mass media to participate too much.The situation will evolve in the next situation. It is difficult to say. After all, casualties have occurred, and India will definitely be calm for a while and a half. The United States also gives India's unrealistic self -confidence, which may cause irrational actions.

In addition, as a scholar studying India, I want to talk about feelings from my field.I have always believed that the experts in India have a lot of responsibilities. They did not study China at all, and did not understand the Chinese way of thinking from the war in 1962.In fact, it is simple. The worse the general trend of China -India relations, the more China will not compromise with India on any issue.Instead, in a kind of friendly atmosphere, the differences between the two countries are easy to resolve, and the problems of specific controversy are easy to solve.

So I really don't understand India's approach. They always want to use the United States to pressure China to force China to concessions.This shows that they do not understand history at all and do not understand China.The Indian academic community has studied China for decades. The most basic problems have not figured out. How to make a reference for Indian decision makers to make decisions?

01: The border issues have been suspended for many years. Even if it is up to the negotiating table, it is difficult to truly communicate. Where is the problem?

Lin Minwang: The negotiations and communication between the two parties are often not on the same channel.After the normalization of China -India relations in 1988, the issue of China -India border has been discussed for decades at various levels. Special representatives have met more than 20 times.Only a little western section can reach the final agreement that the border is resolved. Isn't this delusional?China has traded 12 boundary lines with 14 neighboring countries around, and only India did not reach an agreement.India still takes care of the lion's opening. It seems that China is regarded as Bhutan, Sikkim or Nepal, and the mentality of dealing with China has not been correct.

If India treats China with a more equal attitude, instead of dealing with China with the mentality of the British Empire, there will be no high expectations.Use a metaphor to illustrate this problem.The Chinese negotiations, if they want to achieve the effect of 10 points, generally turn on the price to 12, and then make a concession in the negotiations. The two parties can easily reach an agreement.India is different, the Indians will turn to the price to 20 at once, so that the negotiations will be extremely difficult.

I really worried about India. In 1947, they did not solve the territorial border issues of the founding and all neighboring countries in 1947.I once went to Bangladesh to participate in an international conference. A senior Indian official said that China and all countries in the surrounding countries have solved the border problem, but they have not solved it because China is specifically targeted at India.When I heard it, I was very angry, and I stood up and asked him how many neighbors in China and how many neighbors in India.The reality is that China has solved all border disputes except India, and India has not been resolved. So where is the problem?Is it China or India?

China has provided many opportunities and opportunities to solve the border problems, but each time it ended at India's long -term prices.

01: From the perspective of the entire Indian area, India is choosing to be close to the United States and pressure to pressure China?

Lin Minwang: This is not significant, because India has basically stood with the United States in the same camp, and it can even be said that India is actually a prospective alliance in the United States.So Trump proposed to engage in G10 and incorporate India in.

01: There will also be analysis that since Modi took office, many domestic problems have not been resolved. Coupled with the impact of the new crown pneumonia, the internal contradictions are getting bigger and bigger.In this way, India has strengthened the motivation to transfer conflicts through external conflicts?

Lin Minwang: I don't think IndiaThe main purpose is to divert domestic contradictions, because Modi does not have too strong motivation in this regard.On the one hand, Modi's support rate is OK. Although the economy has been impacted by the new crown pneumonia's epidemic, it has also caused the criticism of the opposition party, but these do not constitute a sufficient motivation for him to transfer contradictions.

I personally tend to think that the border problem is caused by the long -term habit of India's thieves. China has been used to the overall situation for many years, and it is a bit used to them.Another important point is that the control mechanism of the China -India border has led Indians to unscrupulously provoke China.Especially the two sides are not allowed to shoot on the border, they can only quarrel.The Indians are good at quarreling, and the Chinese can't quarrel with them.So every time they ran to the Chinese actual control line, China could not take them, which caused their behavior to become more and more important. This is a very important background.

01: Under the premise of the existence of the border control agreement, China seems to be able to do much.Is there a better way to deal with similar incidents in the future?

Lin Minwang: I don't think I can do anything. China still follows the principles of reasonable, favorable, and prevailing.As long as the other party has made excessive moves, we must resolutely respond to him and give him several firm lessons. Of course, the most important thing is to hold on the pressure in all aspects.However, in terms of foreign publicity, we must keep a low -key and leave him with a little face.

01: What are the aspects of these responses?What are the ways to respond to diplomatic responses?

Lin Minwang: Don't just be the toughness of the diplomatic tone. It is not interesting to scold the war. We only have one Global Times to murly the Indians, but all Indian media are ridiculing China every day.Once the other party crosses the actual control line, the fight should be played.Like this time, if you don't listen, you can only do so.It is also an important principle to not cause trouble, not afraid of things.

01: You have suggested that due to the further expansion of the gap between China and India, coupled with the changes in the international environment and India itself, the foundation of China and India's original strategic cooperation was further weakened.Now that the border conflicts are coming back, what changes will the future Sino -Indian relations have?

Lin Minwang: It ’s hard to say in the future. Let’ s take a look at what kind of processing results will be in this crisis.It takes a little time to cool down the incident. Sino -Indian relations have always been good, and they have not been worse. It has not been worse. For more than ten years, this situation has been maintained. In the future, this situation of not cold and hot will continue.