Author: Peng Shengyu
The WHO said at the new crown pneumonia's epidemic conference held on April 15 that, although the popularity of new crown pneumonia has lasted for several months, it is still in the early stages of new crown pneumonia.Accelerating the spread, it is unclear what factors such as temperature and humidity can have on the impact of the new crown virus.
There are at least three shock waves in the global epidemic: the first wave is mainly in the large -scale outbreak of China.The second wave is mainly the outbreak of the epidemic in developed countries in Europe and the United States.The third wave is underdeveloped areas such as South America, South Asia, Africa, Russia, and Turkey.These regional regional medical levels are relatively poor or density, which is a controlled area that determines when the Earth's epidemic ended.Due to the basic characteristics of globalization, there may be more shock waves in the future.The epidemic is likely to cycle back and forth between different countries in the north and south hemispheres, which will have a long period of impact on human life.
The epidemic impact on the global economy is huge.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on April 14, 2020 The latest World Economic Outlook Report, stating that the world economic growth is the most serious blow since the Great Depression of the 30th century. It is expected that global GDP growth in 2020 will shrink by 3%.IMF emphasized that this was the first time in the world since the Great Depression in the 1930s, and the world has faced the recession at the same time in developed economies and emerging economies.The report added that due to the high uncertainty of the prospect of the new coronary virus, if the epidemic continues to deteriorate in the second half of the year, global economic growth will encounter a greater blow, and GDP this year may shrink by 6%.If the epidemic lasted until 2021, the global GDP may shrink by 2.2%next year.
IMF emphasized that the world's worst economic consequences have faced the world's Great Depression in the 1930s, with a significant degree of severity than the global financial crisis from 2008-09, and the global GDP growth in 2009 was -0.1%.IMF predicts that the global economy will recover to 5.8%year -on -year growth in 2021, and the blow of the new crown epidemic will cause about $ 9 trillion in the world's loss in this year and next, surpassing the total GDP of Japan and Germany.In developed economies, the IMF is expected to have a economic growth rate of -6.1%in 2020, and the recovery to 4.5%in 2021.Among them, the economic growth rate of the United States in 2020 was -5.9%and 4.7%in 2021.In emerging markets and developing economies, the IMF is expected to have a economic growth rate of -1%in 2020.China's economic growth is expected to be 1.2%in 2020, and 9.2%in 2021.
On March 30, 2020, WTI crude oil fell below $ 20, which once reached a new low of $ 19.92/barrel.It is worth noting that this is the first time since February 2002, which has fallen below $ 20 for 18 years.This price also easily broke the lowest point of the oil price plunge cycle from 2014-2016.On April 20, the settlement price of Lightweight Crude Oil Futures in the United States closed at -37.63 US dollars per barrel in May. This is the first time that Petroleum Futures has fallen into negative trading after the transaction has been traded in the New York Commodity Exchange in 1983.Market response has shown that the crude oil organization OPEC and Russia's recently reached production reduction agreement is not enough to deal with the sharp decline in the demand caused by the global diffusion of the new crown pneumonia, and the problem of exhaustion of oil storage facilities has further lost confidence in the market's crude oil stock price in recent months.
The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on April 8th's Standing Committee meeting made it clear that it was prepared for a long time.Domestic: At present, the results of my country's epidemic prevention and control have been further consolidated, and important progress has been made in resumption of work and re -production, and the economic and social operation order has been accelerated.International: The international epidemic has continued to spread, the risks of the world economy have intensified, and the uncertain factors have increased significantly.The pressure on the prevention of epidemics in my country is increasing, and the re -production and re -production and economic and social development are facing new difficulties and challenges.The meeting also requires the bottom line thinking and normalization prevention and control: 1) The bottom line thinking: Do a long period of mind preparation and work preparation for the thinking of changes in the external environment for a long time.2) Normal prevention and control: To persist in accelerating the comprehensive recovery of production and living order in the prevention and control of the normalization epidemic.And proposed the six guarantees: comprehensively implementing the employment of residents' employment, basic livelihood, market entity, food security security security, stable supply chain supply chain, and operating tasks of the sponsor layer.
Churchill said, don't waste every crisis!Today's crisis, for some industries in China, sometimes greater opportunities!The author believes that the Petroleum industry should be more aggressive in the global oil and gas industry's trough.
First, beware of complicated situations, and ensure that energy autonomous supply guarantees national energy security.
If the epidemic has a worse ending, many countries may have serious unemployment, economic depression, and social unstable. It is not ruled out that there will be complicated situations in various situations.The more you prepare, the more you can avoid being seriously affected.China should do its own oil supply. Domestic oil exploration and development not only cannot retreat and stagnate, but to increase the protection of national energy supply.
One of the six guarantees proposed by the central government is to ensure energy safety.Three barrels of oil in China accounted for only a small part of the country's consumption (about 1/3). Under the complex situation of the current situation, the responsibility of ensuring the safety of national energy cannot be reduced.The sweetness of profit earning.To maintain a strong strategic fixed force, the more complicated the situation, the more stable domestic oil.
The average barrel oil cost of three barrels of oil is difficult to reduce the cost of mining in a short period of time. The mining costs will not be too much in the next few years and next year. It should be unruly, and the seven -year action plan is performed without discounting.
2. The overall response strategies and goals of PetroChina's large -scale central enterprises in response to the current situation are as follows: buy more foreign oil, stabilize internal oil; collect resources, strong oil companies;
Temporarily put down the pursuit of oil to the outside world, and we are temporarily used abroad to buy oil and supplement.The downturn of oil prices is a good time for China, which has a 70%oil import rate in 2019.Oil was originally a valuable treasure. The current oil prices are not enough for mining costs. In China with an import volume of 70%, the import rate is not as good as 90%.
During the dips, we can collect resource collection techniques.International oil prices are in a historical position, which is the good opportunity for large domestic energy companies to go to the sea.The bottom, including starting some oilfields, purchasing low -cost crude oil, acquisition technology or equipment, and deep -water companies that are lacking in deep water in dips, etc., are all considering.Great imported oil, buy resources, buy technology, and buy ability is what we are doing.We only need to do a good job of ensuring energy supply and safety. Whether it is self -priced or imported work, legs walk together!You should bite this direction to advance boldly and seize the opportunity window period.
Seize the opportunity to acquire reorganizations, this year there will be a group of oil companies and oil service companies bankrupt.This is a favorable time for acquiring potential high -quality assets.ARTEM Abramov, the head of Rystad Energy Research, said that the $ 30 is already bad, but once it reaches $ 20 or even $ 10, it is simply a nightmare.Many petroleum companies bear too much debt during economic prosperity.Some companies will not be able to survive this historic recession.According to Rystad Energy, in the $ 20 oil environment, by the end of 2021, 533 US oil exploration and production companies will apply for bankruptcy.
Most of the world's large and medium -sized oil uniform companies are controlled by private shareholders, but they have the core technical capabilities of oil exploration and development. They should use national power. When they are the most difficult and unbearable, they should decisively.Don't think about the money in our own hands, behind us is the country.For example, if some of the world's three major oil service giants cannot support, what the shareholders want to sell, the price is very reasonable, and they can let go of their boldness to do snakes. Three barrels of oil can be jointly acquired to control the world's technology giants in control.My own hand.
At this time, some oil fields in the third world may be much higher than before, and we can consider using the mining contract to enter the shareholding of the oil field.China is the world's largest capital group.Control all large oil clothes.The United States is not a hundred responses.Seize opportunities, money, surgery, use together, acquisition is just a way.
Third, we must seize the window period that may not be long.During the special opportunity window period, the biggest focus of work is to study the opportunity to provide decision -making suggestions to seize the opportunity and make strategic aggressive research and judgment.Accelerate the decision -making process and ensure that high -quality suggestions can be implemented in the opportunity window.
This window period may not be very long. When the epidemic is over, traffic recovery, cars, airplanes, demand for oil will soon recover.Small and medium -sized investment mergers and acquisitions can be actively considered.Don't have an unsuccessful experience before, cut off the ideas of small and medium -sized business with money.
Do n’t get quality and efficiency as soon as you reach the industry ’s low valley.
Opportunities are for those who are acting.Don't be afraid of your head.Strategic departments should be brave to put the suggestions.If we do nothing, it will be difficult to find this strategic opportunity period, and it will be a sinner of history.I dare not think about it, I can't do anything.The biggest and biggest problem that is most afraid of is that you can't do it!If the epidemic is controlled, the price of oil will rebound and the economy will rebound.We have been very sure of the rebound situation after the epidemic, and the machine must not be lost.Three barrels of oil should be invested with greater time and energy, greater active and initiative, action and courage to use excellent opportunities, and they cannot do nothing.
4. The state must take the bank and capital to actively support the aggressive behavior of the petroleum industry in the trough of the global oil and gas industry.
The global oil and gas industry is a period of downturn. As a company in the oil and gas industry, its own operations have also been greatly affected, and their income and profits are severely atrophy.At this time, if only the financial resources of the oil company itself are only difficult to support the aggressive behavior of the industry's trough.At this time, the state needs to be consciously supported, to lead banks and capital decisively and in a timely manner, and actively support the aggressive behavior of the PetroChina industry in the global oil and gas industry's trough.It is difficult to advance.
5. Promote internationalization and technology development, and do not use money as a technology-market-equipment cross and combined swap tactics.It is recommended to use 10-20 years to stand at a very high degree of high strategy and high degree of attention to promote the internationalization of the Group's international-technical development technology-equipment-market transaction-exchange strategy.
When there is no money, everyone has technology, market, equipment, and clever tactics to actively carry out technology-market-equipment cross and combined swap.The development of international development and technological development should take the three measures to go together with the development, money development, and use of surgery.It is recommended that governments in each country that are demanded around the world, and global peers in every corner of the world to do the following eight forms of transactions-exchange.1) Technology exchange market, 2) market changes, 3) Equipment exchange market, 4) market change technology, 5) market change equipment, 6) technology change equipment, 7) technology exchange technology, 8) equipment change equipment.
This kind of benefit acquisition required technology-equipment-market transaction-exchange is the strategic path selection of internationalization to become bigger and stronger, and at the same time effectively improve the technical equipment level and ability.Trading-exchange is a business behavior that does not damage its own technical level and strength.The above-mentioned exchange process may last about 10-20 years. If the technology-equipment-market transaction-exchange strategy can be successful, our oil central enterprise may become the world's very influential business covering global oil companies.Carefully thinking about the technology-equipment-exchange transactions-exchange strategy of countries and oil-related companies in the world. This is a bold and magnificent feat that may bring great changes in destiny.
6. Promoting internationalization, to realize the autonomy of national petroleum exploration and mining for countries in need, it is the best point for going global to squeeze competitors to achieve its own international development.
Combined with the national Belt and Road strategy, starting from the countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, through selective and step-by-step help to help countries in need to realize the autonomy of national petroleum exploration and mining, establish a material exploration-directional well-testing well-drilling-drillingEnd of the independent industrial industrial system such as production-refining and other aspects.This is the best starting point for going global to achieve internationalization. It is also the most powerful weapon for the market with Western giants. It is the most likely to grow its own western giants that are most likely to achieve breakthroughs.Active visit to negotiation is to obtain the development needs, interests and transactions of various companies in various countries around the world.
Don't think about the church apprentice starving the master, we are not a master.In this world's oil and gas industry cakes, most of the Western oil companies that are mastered in many places have nothing to do with us.If we don't grab, there is nothing in the cake.When we teach apprentices, we go to the cake of others.
Seven, enrich the acquisition of technology, and actively promote the technical exchange technology between three barrels of oil, which can reasonably save scientific research funds.During the difficulty period, money should not be consumed in the research and development of technologies that may be obtained through technical exchanges between three barrels of oil.
The technical lists between the three barrels of three barrels of oil can be listed. Many three barrels of oil are developed in technology or products. Some units have already mastered it. There are many repetitive scientific research between the three barrels of oil.The technology changing technology, you have me and everyone have it together. It is an excellent way to obtain a technology without cost, which can be operated.During today's difficulties, it is very impossible to persist blindly.There is no need to conduct feasibility studies, just talk to each other.The technical secrets and technical patents between the three barrels of oil are tens of thousands of, locked in the file cabinet, and placed in the computer, which will only rot and smell.The self -closed scientific research between oil companies is wasted, and it is a great manpower, material and financial resources, time, and income.The technology replacement of private enterprises in state -owned enterprises is necessary.You can list the list to find the appropriate object to promote technology changing technology, technology replacement market, etc., so that these things that may rot in our computer can exert greater value and enrich our technical and market acquisition channels.Li Yuan is more than disadvantaged, so you must not consider the disadvantages too much.You will make hot and sour potato shreds. He will make braised pork. If you teach each other, everyone will.
8. Increase the oil storage capacity to expand the capacity of the oil storage depot and cooperate with the Oil Oil Oil Storage Storage Storage Storage Store
With the popularity of new coronary pneumonia virus, the economy has stalled, crude oil inventory is already very large, and there is almost a few space for US energy companies to store oil.Many countries are copying crude oil; before in April, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued the second batch of non -state -owned trade crude oil import quotas for more than 2 months in advance.It is foreseeable that in the future, China's crude oil and refined oil inventory will usher in another surge peak. Are we ready?Tibetan oil is a good way to solve the current limited capacity of my country's oil storage depot. However, from the perspective of long -term development, it is the basis for accelerating the expansion of the construction of my country's oil storage depot.
9. Participating in the disintegration of production reduction agreement behind will greatly reduce the international production reduction agreement.
Domestic oil central enterprises should work together to expand the right to speak of oil prices; PetroChina companies must hold a group with the world's petroleum demand countries, and they can actively act behind them. All parties can make efforts, stir up, and let the production reduction agreement abortion or implement a great discount.
If the three barrels of oil are looking forward to the price of oil every day, this is a very short -sighted behavior that has a high collective interest without political height.China is the largest beneficiary of China with a downturn oil price and 70 % of the world's largest import rate.This is definitely a great good for China!The short -term interests of the three barrels of oil are insignificant compared to the country's great interests.
It should be focused on national interests. Welcome low oil prices and pay attention to the group's own interests.Low oil prices are great benefits for our China to be the biggest beneficiary. The interests of the company's company's interests in the country are insignificant.
X. Strategic perspective attaches great importance to oil imports, and it is necessary to consider coordinating management and overall organizational arrangements.It is recommended that the state can explore the establishment of the China Petroleum Import and Export Corporation, comprehensively manage oil import and export, and national oil strategic reserves.
Petroleum imports have reached 70%of oil consumption in the country.The annual ratio will be higher. For such a huge amount of country, oil imports will be difficult to meet the national strategic needs if they only make each enterprise choose themselves and have a messy attack.It is necessary to attach great importance to the import of oil from strategy, and it is necessary to consider coordinating management and overall management organization arrangements. It is suggested that the state can explore the establishment of the China Petroleum Import and Export Corporation.
How to develop the epidemic in the future can not be predicted with optimistic expectations.Maybe the world is still at the foot of the mountain.The epidemic may be painful and long for a long time. It may change the world far. China wants to evaluate all subsequent world changes.There is no luck.You can be far away, and you can prevent bad or not. It is not a waste.It is the purpose.If we go to compare history after the epidemic is over, this epidemic may be a century -old disaster, or it may be a century -old opportunity in China. Please do not waste this crisis.
Author: Peng Shengyu (Strategic Researcher)
TEL: 13207569791
