Stephens: It is difficult for the US economy to restore strong growth. The COVID-19 epidemic is likely to take more lives of Americans. Trump will not be re-elected.
It is not a prediction, but occasionally imagining that the situation is better.Looking forward to summer, two potential major events will occur.Scientists tell us that the vaccine and (or) treatment methods for the new type of coronary virus pneumonia (COVID-19) may allow us to get rid of this epidemic.As for the second possibility, my friends in the foreign policy community have vowed to remain silent.It is very quiet that the United States may choose a new president.
Most parts of the world are canceling the blockbustering measures to prevent new coronal viruses, but before we have a greater grasp of permanently suppressing the COVID-19, the recovery will still be small and slow.The current danger is that the recovery of normal living to any extent will indicate the second wave of autumn infections.Popularists believe that the virus roll is inevitable.What kind of scrolls come from the question.As long as there is an uncertainty, the company will hesitate and dare not open the full horsepower to make a strong investigation.
The key factor of continuous recovery is confidence.By eliminating future risks, vaccine mdash; mdash; or in the case of a firm commitment to develop vaccines in one year, MDASH; mdash; will change the future prospects.A great way to reduce mortality is also very helpful.Most economic predictors are currently depicted by the severe situation based on the assumptions that the virus will exist indefinitely.If the virus is expected to be completely suppressed, the economic rebound may be stronger than the rebound after the financial crisis in 2008.
Although politicians and policy makers outside the United States are willing to predict every progress of the vaccine, it is noticeable that they have remained silent about geological politics in 2020 without an epidemic.In addition to a few dictators, most American and allies support Democratic candidates Joe Biden.Some people heard that European leaders said privately that Donald Trump's re -election will be a disaster to our democratic countries that we usually call Western.However, most of them are wrong in 2016.If it is predicted that American voters will abandon Trump now, it is tantamount to challenging fate.
However, polls show that Biden now has more than 50%of the chances of winning elections.Trump has rely on his basic market. In the months before the election, the US economy will be difficult to recover strong growth. COVID-19 is likely to take more Americans' lives.The situation may change, but the possibility of Trump will be kicked off in a series of angry tweets.
Biden's victory itself will not change the world.The fierce competition between China and the United States will not disappear if it is strategic or economic.The Middle East is still far from peace.Russia's Vladimir Putin has almost no signs of revenge.Globalization and inequality tension will continue to supply fuel for the fire of populism.Just as we need multilateralism to deal with the threat of global warming to human life and death, the multilateralism system has been severely damaged.Even the most friendly US leaders cannot easily solve these challenges.
It doesn't matter.After Trump, who has repeatedly fickle, as long as the new president attaches importance to the allies and is willing to let the United States join the Paris climate change agreement, and want to strengthen instead of weakening the order of opening and freedom in the West, this will be a considerable progress in itselfEssenceThis will reproduce the chances of being lost in the warlord of the war.Democracy around the world is retreat, which largely reflects people's contempt for leaders of the world's most powerful democratic countries.
So now is not when the allies of the United States watch.On the contrary, they should conscientiously think about how to rebuild the rules -based international system MDASH; MDASH; this order is likely to be rejected by China and Russia, but it is essential for the democratic values that the Western security and prosperity depend on.
We know that Biden is a strong supporter of NATO.At the moment he was elected, European member states of NATO should fulfill their commitments to make more contributions to the alliance.The Democratic candidate also stated that he hopes to save the international nuclear agreement with Iran.What can Europe do to persuade Tehran to solve the concerns that many Americans can understand?
In addition to these regional problems, European governments, as well as allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, can also play a role in formulating the overall strategy of the West to China. The strategy will also include the necessary contact with Beijing and the interests of the West and the western interests and the western interests.The values are strongly defended.Trump's condemnation, sanctions, and threats gave Europeans an excuse to escape difficult choices.
Mdash; mdash; after the Cold War, the United States seems to be able to reshape the world as much as possible in the short period of Mdash; mdash; it is gone.However, Trump's situation during his presidency shows the potential destructive of the United States withdrawn from international leadership.If Biden was elected president, the American allies should propose cooperation with him.Of course, Trump may still win.However, if so, there is nothing to predict.
Translator/Pei Pan
