Former Foreign Secretary of India and former ambassador to China, Vijay Gokhale, published an article entitled that China does not want to overthrow the global order, but wants to take over it.The article of It WANTS This One, which clearly puts forward the view that China wants to take over the world order.
The author believes that with the difficulties of the United States, the world is in crisis, and China intends to take over international institutions that manage the world, such as the World Health Organization and the United Nations.In the author's opinion, China's logic of taking over world order is self -explanatory.China is the biggest beneficiary of globalization.It systematically uses Western leadership to improve its interests and influence.China is now the second largest donor of the United Nations.Over the years, China has steadily established its own influence in international institutions, and has occupied four major United Nations institutions that formulate international rules and standards.
The author believes that the information conveyed to the world is simple: As the United States withdraws from its global responsibility, China is ready to pick up this disabled.This is a seductive proposal for the fatigue and poor world due to the epidemic.As long as someone takes over, it is good, and few people will consider their significance to global order, because the primary tasks of most countries are development and stability.
The author also warns that if the West cannot restore his belief in democratic universal power, from India to Indonesia, from Ghana to Uruguay, China can occupy the world as expected.
At first glance, this view has its novelty, it is obviously different from the revolutionary theory that has been circulating in the Western world and another stove theory.Revolutionary theory believes that the relationship between China and the world order is a revolutionary relationship, that is, China's intention is to overthrow the world order that exists on the rules.The West, especially the United States, has always complained and criticized China, and believes that China does not abide by existing rules after joining the world system.
From the beginning, the Trump administration has regarded China as a revisionist of existing international order.Another stove theory will go further, thinking that China will be like the Soviet Union. If it is not accepted by existing international organizations, it will start another stove to establish an international order centered on its own.
Relationship with existing world order
Although China takes over the rich imagination of the author's theory of world order, it has indeed raised a major issue to China, that is, how to deal with the relationship with the existing world order.
Since the reform and opening up, in general, the relationship between China and the existing world system has gone through several stages.First, join the world system.Unlike the Soviet Union, China did not choose to start another stove to establish its own international system.On the contrary, China chose to accept and join the existing world system. Although this system was established by Western countries, it has also been led by Western.Second, in line with the world system.Before joining the World Trade Organization, China has made great efforts to modify and adjust domestic laws, regulations, and policies in order to integrate with world rules.
In fact, the rise of China is the same process as China ’s globalization.Today's China and the existing international order are almost integrated. It is difficult for China to exit the existing international order, and it is difficult for the West to crowd out China to squeeze international order.This is a long time that China believes that it can rise peacefully.To this day, no matter what reason, if China and the West forcibly decoupled, they are extremely painful for both parties, and they will pay a huge price.
Third, reform the existing international order.Although there are many problems with the current international system with the United Nations system as the core and facing severe challenges, China has become the most important supporter and supporter of this system.Under this premise, China advocates improving its operating efficiency through the reform system.But it is very clear that reform is not just China's request, but also the requirements of most countries within the system.
Obviously, within this system, the interests of some western countries have been excessively expressed, and the interests of the majority of developing countries, including China.This unbalanced power structure is also the reason for poor international system operation.Therefore, people can say that reform is the requirements of this system itself.
Fourth, supplement the existing international order.After decades of reform and opening up, China not only plays an increasingly important role in existing international order, but also has the ability to supplement the existing international system.Infrastructure investment banks, BRICS banks, etc.But it should be pointed out that these regional organizations have the following characteristics.
First of all, they are supplemented rather than alternative existing areas or international organizations.The responsibilities of these regional organizations are not re -coincided with the responsibilities of existing regions or international organizations.Secondly, openness, although China advocates the construction of these regional organizations, these organizations are open, and all other related countries are welcome to join.Thirdly, the multilaterality, that is, within these areas, does not show high level of level, but that relevant countries have the right to participate in the implementation of decision -making and decision -making.
If in the first and second stages, China's behavior is accepted and welcomed by the West. In the third and fourth stage, China's behavior is rejected and opposed by the West.In the first and second stages, the West believes that as China joins the world system and is in line with the world system, China will evolve into a Western country.This is not only manifested on the economic and diplomatic level, but also should also be manifested in China's politics, that is, Chinese politics will also become Western -style democratic politics.In fact, the West, especially the United States, is open to China and allows China to enter its dominant world system. There is this political expectation behind it.
The problem is that in the West, after the first and second stages, China has obtained huge benefits from the world -led world system, but China not only has not evolved into the country that the West wants to see, but has the ability to reform to reformThe world system dominated by the West can even take the initiative to build an international multilateral organization with regional and even global significance.
Obviously, the West with the United States as the core not only has always opposed the suggestions of China's reform of the international system, but also strives to prevent China's supplement to the world system.Some Western countries, especially the United States, have always regarded China's Belt and Road and other regional initiatives and other exit behaviors as new colonialism, new imperialism or new expansionism.
Excessive burden on the US expansion causes too much burden
Although the United States is still the world's most powerful country, after President Trump came to power, the United States began to quickly adjust its relationship with this system.As Trump said at the West Point Military Academy in the United States on June 13, when he delivered a speech to the 2020 graduation class, the United States was not a world police.aggression.We are ending the era of endless war.Instead, it is to re -focus on the key interests of defending the United States.
In the past few years, the choice of Trump authorities has reduced the United States' commitment to the existing world system by retreating strategies.Trump's policy is so aggressive that the U.S. hardships cannot adapt, because they believe that the result of the US retreat is to give China the opportunity to continue to rise, and China will fill the international space that the United States has withdrawn at any time.
Trump's judgment is not wrong, but the mistake is in his policy choice.Even before Trump, the United States had already realized the overweight problem caused by excessive expansion of the empire.During the Cold War of the United States and the Soviet Union, the expansion of the United States was restricted by the Soviet Union.After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the United States was super strong, and a series of expansion (NATO, the Middle East War, the Democratic Plan of the Greater Middle East) quickly evolved into a modern version of the super empire.The United States often adopts unilateralism in the process of expansion, not only throwing the United Nations aside, but also not cooperating with traditional allies.Therefore, the United States needs to pay for its expansion operation.
As a result, with excessive expansion, over -burden is over.Although President Obama started to take someSpecific actions hope to promote the degree of affordability of the empire to shrink to the United States, but the effect is not significant.The empire showed a situation where it was easy to expand and contracted.Therefore, after Trump came to power, under the preferred slogan of the United States, it can be said that it has adopted the policy of fast -knives and cutting into chaos, regardless of its consequences from the international system and international treaty that it does not consider the interests of the United States.
In fact, the United States can have a better choice.That is, through international cooperation, it has promoted its dominant world system to become more open. Like before sharing international power with other Western powers, it shared international power with emerging powers including China;The great powers jointly bear international responsibility.Some of the major politicians in the United States think so. They hope to give China more international responsibilities by giving more international space in China.
If so, international politics will be a win -win game, because this can extend and even consolidate the international status of the United States and also in line with China's interests.China has neither sufficient strength, no strong desire, nor the tradition of hegemony with other countries.
But at least two factors make this win -win game impossible.First, American hardliners who believe in realism do not believe that international politics can be a win -win situation.They believe that China's ultimate purpose is to replace the United States as the world hegemony.Therefore, regardless of China's action, the United States always interprets it as a challenge to the United States.Second, the completely different values, ideology, and political systems between China and the United States have also hindered any meaningful political trust between China and the United States.Without a certain degree of political trust, the two countries have long been in the same dream state of the same bed in American scholars.
Today, the crown disease has accelerated the disintegration of world order established after World War II.Whether it is a diplomat or a politician, people are aware of the difficulty of the old order.How to disintegrate the old order?What will the new international order look like?How to establish a new order?Who (which countries) are established?These issues are not only concerned by researchers from various countries, but some countries have also brought these issues to the agenda of foreign policy.
China must know its own choice
As the second largest economy, China, which has been highly involved in world affairs, must also think about these issues.For China, there are several aspects of choices very clearly.First of all, it is impossible for China to take over the world order as Gu Kaijie said.This is not only because it mentioned earlier, China has neither sufficient strength, no strong willingness, and no such tradition to take over the world order full of infinite problems from the United States, but also because the United States will not voluntarily withdraw from international order.Anyway, the United States under Trump is not equal to the United States after Trump.Once the United States restores normal, its return to international order can also be expected.
Secondly, although many existing international organizations have already died and their efficiency is low, there is still a distance from death, mainly because other Western countries outside the United States do not want these international organizations to die.In this regard, China and these Western countries have common interests.For example, the United States withdrawing from the World Health Organization does not lead to the death of this organization. European countries and China are as always supporting it.Western countries and China do this is not unreasonable.It is very simple. It is easy to destroy an organization, but it is difficult to build an organization.
Third, China's own interests, abilities and international relations based on China's own interests will try their best to promote the polarization of international power.With the upgrading of the Sino -US conflict, today's world has more and more present a world, two systems, or a world, and the two markets, namely a United States -centered system and market, and one centered on China -centered.System and market.This trend does not conform to China's long -term interests.China's long -term interests are to try to avoid the polarization of international power, that is, China and the United States.If it evolves into the two poles of China and the United States, it is likely to evolve into the Sino -US relations of the United States and Soviet in the past.
In fact, behind the polarization, world power is also polarized.The United States is still strong, China continues to rise, Russia does not admit defeat, Germany has restored its status in Europe and expanding its international influence, and India is pursuing.Among all these big powers, none of the great powers have the ability to make another big country yield.
Therefore, as long as China can effectively control high nationalist emotions, continue to implement the established reform and opening up policy, and to turn a pragmatic foreign policy, it will be difficult to appear a West that is dominated by China during the Cold War of the United States and the Soviet Union.Even if the Cold War between the United States and the United States cannot be eased and even continues to deteriorate, most Western countries will leave between China and the United States without rational choices.
China must also be a new country.If the old road of the past and the hegemonism is repeated, whether it is British or American, China will eventually fail.A multi -pole, diverse, and open international order is not only a more democratic and fair order, but also a more sustainable international order.
(The author is a professor at the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore)
The article only represents personal point of view
