Yang Tinghui: The century epidemic affects Irans internal affairs and diplomacy

The international situation has always changed rapidly.Earlier this year, the United States assassinated the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Holy City Brigade, the commander of the Sakamani, shocked the world; the two sides of the United States immediately launched the incident.When international public opinion has worried that the Middle East will usher in a new round of military conflict upgrades, the US President Trump will attend the press conference to cool down with a group of White House officials.Essence

What is even more unexpected is that, compared to the threat of military conflict, the century epidemic is more direct and huge.Some commented that the US sanctions on Iran have exacerbated the Iranian epidemic crisis.In fact, Iran itself must also be responsible for the inadequate response.Regardless of the truth, Iranian conservatives have failed to deal with the use of epidemic, which is relatively mild President Rouhani, which has a gentle impact on the biggest unstable factors in the Middle East in Iran.

After the Iranian epidemic epidemic, the US sanctions on Iran became the focus of attention from the outside world because the U.S. economic sanctions measures may hinder Iran's purchase of supplies required for resistance.In this regard, the U.S. Treasury Department announced on February 27 to relax the sanctions against the Iranian central bank and let the Iranian entrance Coronary virus testing kit and medical supplies.The next day, US Secretary of State Pompeo proposed to provide medical supplies to the Iranian government.Since then, the Trump administration has repeatedly emphasized that the US sanction of Iran has not hindered the other party's purchase of medical rescue items.Not only that, the United States is ready to donate medical supplies directly to Iran when necessary.

However, Iran not only did not accept a new plan thrown in the United States, but refuted that Trump and Pompeo's remarks were the psychological war between the American demonization of Iran.In addition, Iran tried to borrow $ 5 billion from the International Monetary Fund, but was strongly opposed by the United States.

The US State Department spokesman told the National Interest magazine that Iranian corruption officials were full of humanitarian funds, and the evils used to support terrorist activities were difficult to write.The implication is that the Trump administration believes that even if Iran's borrowing is successful, related loans are unlikely to be used in medical use.However, the European Union EU in the United States has decided to support Iran's application for assistance to the International Monetary Fund and promise to provide Iran with humanist assistance of 20 million euros.

Concealing the epidemic to frustrate officials and people's trustworthy

In fact, for a long time, both sides of the United States and Iraqi hoped that through this epidemic crisis, Libra tilted to themselves.In any case, even if I temporarily remove the above disputes, Iran's epidemic is burnt, and it must take a lot of responsibilities itself.

Specifically, the number of real infections in Iran is still a mystery.It is generally believed that this closed god rights country is the most serious Middle East country with the worst epidemic, because it has done its golden opportunity to implement the city and isolation policy throughout February.Iranian officials and parliamentarians are infected, and they can also reflect the severity of the Iranian epidemic crisis.

In fact, although Iran's domestic media had begun to disclose crown diseases infected in early February, the government was delayed until February 19 that two nationals were infected for the first time., Always concealed the fact that people were infected.In addition, many doctors have been warned that they cannot disclose the truth of the epidemic. In addition, Iranian state -owned television stations are incredible. For example, Professor Ali Karami, a Professor Ali Karami at the BAQiyatallah University of Medical Sciences.The diseased virus is described as a biochemical weapon developed by the United States and Israel against Iran, making more and more people question the reliability of official epidemic information.

It is worth mentioning that when the century's epidemic was not outbreak, Iran has faced the problem of mutual mutual trust in officials and people.For example, in November last year, the Iranian armed forces suppressed demonstrations that broke out due to the surge in oil prices.For example, in January this year, the Iranian government tried to conceal the shot down the Ukrainian aircraft, causing Iran to explode again.Today, Iran's evidence of concealment of the epidemic is conclusive. In particular, when more and more countries have implemented a policy of isolation, sealed the city, and maintaining social distance, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard still dispatched 300,000 soldiers to the severe epidemic area, trying to show the public to the public to show the powerful people to the public.The side.The official propaganda bridge section that is out of reality is added to the dislike of the sober people.

Tough conservatives seek comprehensive power

However, although the Islamic Revolutionary Guard's performance during the anti -epidemic was not very pleasing, overall, the Iranian tough conservatives it supported may not be severely frustrated.It can even be said that if the United States continues to implement the extreme pressure pressure on Iran, the tough conservatives of Iran will have the opportunity to encourage nationalist emotions and consolidate the support of domestic people.

Looking back at the beginning of the President of Rouhani, he tried to restrain the economic influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, such as regardless of the opposition of the Revolutionary Guard, promoting reforms and enhancing the transparency of the domestic economy (as one of the conditions for reaching the Iranian nuclear agreement), but the United StatesAfter President Trump ranked the revolutionary guard as a terrorist organization last year, Rouhani was forced to abandon relevant measures, otherwise he would be identified as the United States and sold the national interests of Iran.

In all fairness, before the Iranian epidemic epidemic, Rouhani's actual political power has been weakened due to unfavorable political situation.The most obvious example is that Iran's highest leader Hamenei in March last year, he appointed conservative flag character Ebrahim Raisi, the conservative flag in the 2016 presidential election as chief judge of the Iranian judicial system, and Iran's tough conservative conservativePaids in the recent Congress elections, and the current Rouhani is undoubtedly a veritable lame duck.

Facing the charges of inadequate resistance, Iran's tough conservatives not only repeatedly emphasized that the epidemic was a conspiracy to combat Iran in the United States and Israel, and tried to criticize public opinion guidance and accusations of the Ruhani government to seriously misjudge the situation.At the same time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard announced that the soldiers of the generals donated 20%of the salary to assist in resistance.All these are the tough conservatives to build a momentum for the presidential election held in the first half of next year.

Although Rouhani must not seek re -election again, it highlights his policy mistakes to weaken the support of mild reformists.Whether Iran's rude and conservatives can be loud, it is yet to be divided, but it is clear that the epidemic crisis is not a pure medical problem, and different political forces are also conspiring to send a fatal blow to political opponents.From the perspective of global resistance, this is undoubtedly unpredictable.

(The author is an associate researcher at the Department of Public Policy of the City University of Hong Kong and a researcher at the Institute of International Issues of Hong Kong)