The external environment of China's economic development has undergone fundamental changes in recent years.The rise of anti -globalization trends, the Sino -US trade war, the global supply chain breaks caused by the global epidemic of coronary virus diseases in 2019, and the surround of international geopolitics launched by the United States are all China in China and the future of foreign economic exchanges.Facing great challenges and uncertainty.Even more tricky is that these challenges may be the beginning of the troubles that China encountered.The strategy of comprehensive integration into the international market that China's reform and opening up has been incorporated into the international market over the past 40 years is facing a huge test. China may have to shift from export -oriented internationalization strategies to rely on the domestic market.This is not only the inherent requirements of the sustainable development of China's economy, but also the need to ensure China's economic security.
In this context, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on May 14, and for the first time, it proposed to build a new development pattern of mutual promotion of domestic and international dual cycles.Chinese President Xi Jinping recently emphasized that in the symposium of the two conferences of the country, it once again emphasized the gradual development pattern of developing a large -scale domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual -cycle promotion. In the new situation, my country has participated in international cooperation and new competition.From this point of view, the domestic and international dual cycles have become China's new strategic choice.The transformation of this strategy will definitely have an important impact on the Chinese economy and even the world economy.
In fact, the construction of a circular system in China has always been in progress.Under the current international situation, the improvement of China's domestic circulation system has great urgency.China is trying to accelerate the establishment of a complete industrial chain, supply chain and demand chain in China, and strengthen the resource cycle between the three regions of East, Central and Western.Recently, China has re -promoted the rapid development of the western region.These are important measures to build a domestic circulation system in China.
Industrial Chain Supply Chain Localization
The complete localization of the industrial chain and supply chain is not feasible for most countries, but for a large market like China, it can try to work in this direction.China's huge market capacity should meet the requirements of scale economy and agglomeration effects.
China has occupied the central position in the global industrial chain and supply chain, and the supply chain, service chain, and value chain system formed around the industrial chain are the world's most complete.The powerful enterprise ecosystem formed, integrates industrial facilities, financing, productive services, open research and development, and high -quality labor supply, which can provide complete solutions for business activities.This is the strongest magnetic and adhesive of multinational companies.
China's current shortcomings are weak high -end links in production and supply chains. In the future, it can make up for this defect through scientific and technological innovation and international cooperation.In addition, the construction of emerging infrastructure with 5G, big data, and artificial intelligence as the core will also provide important support for the complete industrial chain and supply chain construction.
The construction of China's domestic demand chain is another important part of the domestic economic cycle.The greatest impact on the global crown disease on China is the impact of overseas demand.The sharp decline in the demand for foreign trade, and it was difficult for outward -oriented enterprises to find domestic alternative demand for a while, which caused a severe shock.Even after the epidemic passes, the demand from the European and American markets will continue to weaken.Therefore, in order to establish a complete domestic cycle system, the cycle of domestic demand side has become an important part.
Take China's domestic consumption demand, China is a large consumer market with 1.4 billion people. The rapidly expanding middle class has reached at least 400 million people, making China the strongest country with the strongest purchasing power.The establishment of China's domestic demand system must not only provide new outlets for exports to exports to export -oriented enterprises, but also provide strong profit guarantee for domestic enterprises.This is an important part of ensuring the construction of domestic industrial chains and supply chain.Without the needs of the consumer market, companies will lose their motivation for development and innovation.
In terms of participating in the international economic cycle, China has also strived to open up a new way for international cycles in recent years.For a long time in the past, the international cycle is a cycle of north and south led by developed countries in Europe and the United States.With the advantages of technology, funds and management, the developed countries, located in the northern hemisphere, distribute orders to developing countries in the southern hemisphere.Developed countries in the southern hemisphere are processed and produced on the basis of their low -cost advantages, and then exported the consumer goods they produced to the developed countries in the northern hemisphere.In the process of reform and opening up, China participated in this circular system in depth.However, this circular system is facing the dilemma of insufficient power, and developing countries are also in a unfavorable position in this circular system.
Open east -west flow to the new international cycle
In the future, China will participate in the international cycle. In addition to continuing to participate in the cycle of the above -mentioned north -south direction, it will also strive to take a different approach.For example, the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative is a new international cycle that opens east -west flow.It not only comes in the developing countries that have been ignored in the past, but also tolerate the participation of developed countries such as Europe with an open platform, which is more inclusive than the global cycle flowing from north to south.Although single developing countries or emerging economies are not strong in terms of economic level, consumption power, and technological strength, the overall ability is huge.Strengthening cooperation with these countries is a new channel for China to participate in the international cycle.
China does not try to replace the original north -south circulation system with the circulating system of this west, but wants to supplement the original cycle system.Through these two complementary cycle systems, China hopes to strengthen the connection with developed countries and developing countries at the same time, and participate in international cycles at multiple angles.China is promoting the new western development strategy and the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port, which can become an important platform for participating in the international cycle.
Although the cycle of global resources is most conducive to the improvement of resource efficiency, under the current globalization of geopolitics, the global cycle is facing great uncertainty.Therefore, opening up cooperation within the international area is particularly important.For example, China can cooperate with Northeast Asia and Asia in Asia to form a close regional industry and supply chain integration.East Asia is the focus of the global economy. The geographical location of China is conducive to connecting Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, and establishing a regional industrial chain and a supply chain system.The cooperation framework of Yajia'an 10+3 and the construction of China's international land and sea new channels can all become an important platform for promoting international regional cycle.
China's new strategy attempts have formed the mutual promotion of domestic and international cycles.As the international anti -globalization wave and the wearing lipstick with China are getting stronger, the global circulation system will face great uncertainty.China strives to build a domestic and international dual -cycle system from the perspective of economic efficiency and economic security, which is conducive to decentralizing China's strategic risks and maintaining long -term stable development.
Under the interference of geopolitical politics, the global circulation system has a broken phenomenon.This unfavorable external environment may not be eliminated in the short term.China establishes a domestic circular system that can create a relatively stable and controllable environment to increase China's strategic emerging industries in China and promote the transformation and upgrading of the industrial chain and demand chain.In the new development strategy, China regards domestic cycles as the key subject, and believes that this is the lowest guarantee of bottom -line thinking.Even if the external world has a major impact on supply and demand, China's domestic circulation system should still be able to maintain the basic economic operation of the economy.
The new strategy of China regards domestic cycles and international cycles as mutual coordination and mutual promotion relationships, rather than exclude each other.When the domestic cycle is smooth, China can better participate in the international cycle in depth, and can also obtain new competitive advantages in the international market.The stability of the circulation system in China is more conducive to the stability of the global economic cycle.On the other hand, participation in international cycles is conducive to Chinese companies to carry out global layout, and also create more opportunities for China's domestic economic cycle, as well as providing external motivation for development.
It is foreseeable that the external environment of China's development will face long -term severe challenges, and China has to rely more on its own strength to develop development.The establishment of a domestic and international dual -loop is a long -term strategy. Corresponding system construction and reform measures must be carried out in advance.Accelerate the improvement of the market economy system, increase open intensity and adopt the best international practice, and build the business environment in accordance with the highest international standardsProvide an environment of equal competition for state -owned enterprises, private enterprises and international enterprises.
In the long run, China's development eventually depends on the improvement of the internal institutional mechanism and the improvement of governance capabilities.China has recently introduced a series of policies for deepening reform and opening up, including foreign enterprise investment law, opening up of the capital market, deepening of the market economy system, reform of state -owned enterprises, new western open strategies, Hainan free trade ports, element market reforms, etc.It is the pavement to achieve the above new strategy.A new development pattern has been launched in China, and we can wait and see if it can be successful.
(The author is an associate professor at the School of Public Policy, the National University of Singapore)
Original Lianhe Morning Post's English Electronic Magazine Thought China (ThinkChina)
