This column is co -sponsored by FT Chinese website and Jingwei Far Public Accounts, and the China Think Tank Foundation
Last week, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong published Sino -US relations in US Foreign Affairs magazines is the fundamental issue of this era!This article has become one of the focus of international media reports last week.The article pointed out that the assessment of Sino -US relations in Asian countries is that Asian countries regard the United States as the permanent resident in the region.At the same time, China is a regional country with neighbors.Other Asian countries do not want to be forced to make choices between the two.If any party tries to force Asian countries to make MDASH; MDASH; such as Washington attempts to curb the rise of China, or Beijing seek to establish an exclusive forces in Asia MDASH; MDASH; the United States and the United States have embarked on for decades of confrontation for decades.The road has made the Asian century expected for a long time.
Of course, Li Xianlong's above analysis is correct, but he, as always, has not proposed a solution for the possible development direction of Sino -US relations in Asian countries, and proposes a tendency hint.In the second choice between China and the United States, choose the United States.
The author believes that it is important to propose the assessment of the development of Sino -US relations in Asian countries, but it is more important to solve the problem. Singapore is not completely unrequited. This is the direction that Singapore should focus on.Otherwise, even if the development of the author's article is developed, the blessing of Singapore or related countries.
No one wants to offend anyone in Singapore and Asian countries
Li Xianlong has clearly put forward the position of Singapore and Southeast Asian countries in the article: no one wants to offend between China and the United States.The article clearly states that the Asia -Pacific countries do not want to be forced to make choices between the United States and China.They hope to cultivate a good relationship with both sides.They can't bear the price of alienation of China, and other Asian countries will do their best to prevent any single dispute to dominate their overall relationship with Beijing.At the same time, these Asian countries regard the United States as the permanent resident country that has major interests in the region.
The article specifically describes the necessity of doing this: China's economy has developed rapidly. The Belt and Road Investment and Asian Investment Banks have brought development opportunities for Southeast Asian countries. Therefore, countries in the region hope to launch related cooperation with China.The factors that the author did not say is: whether it is politics or military, China is also the leading country in the region.All this constitutes the need for cooperation between Singapore and Southeast Asian countries.
In terms of the necessity of cooperation with the United States, Li Xianlong's most important thing is actually the following public services provided by the United States explained by his article: the United States advocates the establishment of an open, integrated and rule -based global order, and provides a security of securityProtective umbrellas enable regional countries to cooperate with peace on the basis of this.U.S. multinational companies have invested in Asia in large quantities, bringing capital, technology and creativity.As Washington promotes free trade and opens the US market to the world, the trade between Asia and the United States has gradually increased.The author believes that all this in the United States has achieved the stability and prosperity of Asia, and the author is also called American peace.
However, the author obviously believes that the good days of Singapore and ASEAN are leaving.
On the one hand, the author believes that China regards itself as a major mainland country and is eager to become a marine country; it has been committed to the modernization of the Army and the Navy, so as to transform its army into a world -class combat force.China is increasingly hoping to protect and promote its overseas interests and ensure its position that it should have in international affairs. This is fully understandable.
The United States is also changing. The most important thing is that the United States may no longer provide public services.As Li Xianlong said in the article: The United States, which is still a superpowers in many aspects, is re -evaluating its macro strategy.With the decrease in the share of the United States in the global GDP (GDP), it is unclear whether it will continue to bear the heavy responsibility of maintaining international peace and stability, or to adopt a narrower lsquo; U.S. priority rsquo;Methods to protect their own interests.
On the other hand, the author believes that Sino -US relations are becoming increasingly nervous.For example, Li Xianlong analyzed in the article: In the current US presidential campaign, foreign policy has not received much attention, even if there is, its main focus is LSquo; the United States is preferred by RSQUO;In China, the primary task of the leadership is to ensure domestic political stability, and after the weakness and humiliation of nearly two centuries, it once again shows the ambition of an ancient civilization.Therefore, we must not think of granted that the United States and China will deal with bilateral relations based on the rational considerations of national interests, and even have a common wish of mutual benefit and win -win.The two countries may not be on the road of confrontation, but they cannot rule out the possibility of conflict.
According to the author's logic, in the above background, once Singapore and ASEAN countries are forced to choose from, there will be no good days in both sides of China and the United States.Obviously, if it falls to the United States, its past public services are less provided, and even security may not be provided, or it is required to spend money to buy the United States, and the money in the United States will not be easily earned for you. At the same time, China does notThere will be no action on this; falling to China, the United States will not let go, and how China will treat Singapore and Asian countries, and it is not sure.
Therefore, no one of China and the United States emphasized in Li Xianlong's article is indeed the truth.
The suggestion of Li Xianlong's article
However, in the face of the tension prospects of Sino -US relations explained in the above article, the urgent urgency should be a way to solve the problem.But unfortunately, Li Xianlong did not propose a clear solution. In his words, it was that Singapore and other Asia -Pacific countries could not have much influence on the development of the situation.But he hinted in the article: This is relatively pro -pro -United States, which may not include Trump's individual, which can be seen from the author's attitude towards Trump's SARS and handling allies. At the same time, the author, the authorI also hope that more regional countries will involve and finally check the trend of disturbances in the area; as for which country, Li Xianlong does not say it is China.
When analyzing the United States, Li Xianlong pointed out that the United States' generous and open policy has greatly benefited the Asia -Pacific region. These policies originated from the deep -rooted political ideals, and it as Lsquo; and lsquo;Images, but they also reflect their wise own interests.A stable and prosperous Asia -Pacific region, first of all, is the fortress against communist countries during the Cold War, and then an important area in the world that consists of many American -friendly, stable and prosperous countries.The Asia -Pacific region provides a huge market and important production base for American companies.It is no wonder that there are several most firm allies in the United States in Asia, such as Australia, Japan and South Korea, and some long -term partners, such as Singapore.Here, Li Xianlong's sense of closeness to the United States is obvious.
In comparison of China, Li Xianlong believed that China had two obstacles to expanding influence in this region and taking over the security characters played by the United States.In the article, he said: Unlike the United States, there are marine and territorial disputes in several countries in the South China Sea and the region. These countries will believe that China's naval deployment is to promote its marine and territorial claims.
The second obstacle is: Many Southeast Asian countries have one more Chinese ethnic minorities, and their relationship with the majority of non -Chinese people is often very subtle.These countries have an excessive view of any China's excessive impact on their Chinese population, especially when China recalls the history of China ’s communist rebellion in Southeast Asian communist before the early 1980s.Li Xianlong believes that in the foreseeable future, these sensitive factors will restrict China's role in Southeast Asian affairs.Although Li Xianlong also emphasizes China's economic importance and the reality that the United States cannot replace in the article, it emphasizes that China's large companies have begun to invest overseas, but it still takes many years to have the same scale and level as the United StatesTransnational company.Not to mention common values here.
In addition to the above hints, another point emphasized by the author is: the introduction of Japan and India's power into the region, checks and balancesBeauty conflict.The author said in the article: The United States and China are not the only major countries that have considerable influence in this area; other participants have also played an important role.Especially in Japan, in view of the scale and advancement of its economy, it has contributed a lot to this area.At the same time, India also emphasized that India also has huge potential influence.Under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi, India has made strategic adjustments to announce lsquo; east -directional action policy RSQUO; (Act East Policy), other countries also look forward to seeing this policy put into implementation.This idea of introducing external forces is completely consistent with the thoughts of his father Li Guangyao.
In addition to the above -mentioned stance to respond to the new situation, the full text of Li Xianlong's article can be seen that he confuses and contradictions facing the current new situation in Singapore and Asian countries, especially the new situation in the development of Sino -US relations, and the current global epidemic situation.At the background.But it is clear that once he was forced to choose a team in China and the United States, his position was obvious.
The author believes that Singapore and ASEAN must understand that unity is power.Only by making a real contribution to the tension between China and the United States in the unity area, can we avoid the tragic ending of the second choice between China and the United States.Otherwise, in the face of the sharp changes in Sino -US relations, and there is no national group in other parties in the region, the words of the so -called state and the United States will not offend.At the point of being out of control, Singapore and ASEAN countries will choose one of the two in China and the United States.As for the introduction of other forces to enter the zone, it also requires flag and backbone power. Otherwise, with Singapore's portion, it will even become inadequate in the region.Isn't it completely wrong with this?
(Note: The author is Secretary -General of the International Public Opinion Research Center of the Chahar Society and a researcher at the Peninsula Peace Research Center. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.
