Li Xianlong: The harm of the US -China confrontation in the endangered Asian century

Li Xianlong

In recent years, there is a discussion that the next century is the Pacific Century in Asia. It seems that such a century is coming.I disagree with this view.Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping expressed this view to Gansi, a visiting Indian Prime Minister Rajir Middot in 1988.More than 30 years later, Deng Xiaoping proved his foresight.For decades, Asia has achieved extraordinary economic achievements, and is now the fastest growing area in the world.In these 10 years, the scale of the Asian economy will surpass the sum of other world economies, which has never occurred since the 19th century.However, even today, Deng Xiaoping's warning is still alert: the Asian century is neither inevitable nor destined.

The reason why Asia is prosperous is because Pax Americana, which has been maintained since the end of World War II, provides a favorable strategic environment.However, the tension between the United States and China has caused profound problems about the future of Asia and the form of emerging international order.Southeast Asian countries, including Singapore, are particularly worried, because they are at the intersection of the interests of various powers, and they must avoid being sandwiched in the middle or forced to make unpleasant choices.

The status quo of Asia must be changed.But the new pattern will bring more success, or will it bring a dangerous instability?This depends on the choice made by the United States and China.These two major powers must formulate a coexistence model. While maintaining a competitive relationship in some areas, it will not allow contradictions between the two countries to cooperate in all fields.

Asian countries regard the United States as a resident country that has major interests in the region.At the same time, China is a regional country with neighbors.Other Asian countries do not want to be forced to choose between the two.If any party tries to force Asian countries to make MDASH; MDASH; such as Washington attempts to curb China's rise, or Beijing seek to establish an exclusive forces in Asia MDASH; MDASH; the United States and China have embarked on a long -term confrontation road for decades.The Asian century that has been expected for a long time is at stake.

Two stages of the Mermelon's Governance

There were two very different stages in the United States in Asia in the 20th century.The first was from 1945 to the 1970s, the previous decades of the Cold War, the United States and its allies competed with the influence with the Soviet Group.Although China has joined forces to fight against the United States with the Soviet Union during the Korean War and the Vietnam War, its economy is still introverted and closed, and its economic connection with other Asian countries is very small.At the same time, the free market economy in other parts of Asia is taking off.First, Japan, then Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan and other emerging industrial economies.

The United States enables Asia's stability and prosperity.The United States advocates the establishment of an open, integrated, and rule -based global order, and provides a security umbrella to enable regional countries to cooperate with peaceful competition on this basis.U.S. multinational companies have invested in Asia in large quantities, bringing capital, technology and creativity.As Washington promotes free trade and opens the US market to the world, the trade between Asia and the United States has gradually increased.

In the 1970s, two major events brought American American peace into a new stage: then the US national security adviser Kissinger secretly visited China in 1971, laying the foundation for the decades of hostile to the United States and China;Deng Xiaoping launched the reform and opening up policy in 1978, making the Chinese economy take off.By the end of the 1990s, economic barriers gradually eliminated, and international trade increased rapidly.After the war between the Vietnam War and the Cambodia, other countries in Vietnam and the Central South Peninsula were able to focus their energy and resources on economic development and began to catch up with other Asian countries.

For a long time, many Asian countries have regarded the United States and other developed countries as the main economic partners, but they are now increasingly grasping the opportunities brought by China's rapid development.combine together.Within decades, China has changed its economy to other parts of other parts of Asia to the largest economy and major economic partners in the region.China's influence in regional affairs has also increased accordingly.

Nevertheless, American peace is still effective, and these fundamental changes in China's status occur within its framework.China has no ability to challenge the dominant position of the United States, nor does it try to do so.In fact, it adopts Deng Xiaoping's famous saying, Tao Guang, as a guidance, and puts the modernization of agriculture, industry and technology before the construction of military forces.

Therefore, while establishing economic relations with China, Southeast Asian countries have also maintained a firm connection with the United States and other developed countries, so as to enjoy the benefits of both the beauty.They also deepened their connections and worked together to establish an open architecture for regional cooperation rooted in the Asian Simpan organization.Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization was established in 1989, the Yajia'an Regional Forum was established in 1994, and the East Asian Summit has been held every year since 2005, and it has played a core role.

China has fully participated in these processes.Every year, the Chinese Prime Minister visits a member of the Asian Simpan to meet the leaders of the Asianan countries to prepare to fully explain China's views on Southeast Asia and put forward suggestions for strengthening cooperation between China and Asians.As China ’s interests in the region have continued to increase, it has also launched its own initiative, including the Belt and Road and Asian infrastructure investment banks.These all help to deepen the cooperation between China and neighboring countries, and of course, it also increases its influence.

However, because this is an open regional architecture, China has no absolute influence.The United States is still an important participant, and it has guaranteed the initiatives such as the Asia Reassure Initiative Act and making good use of the investment promotion law to consolidate regional security and and other initiatives. Stable and strengthen its economyparticipate.Asianan also established a formal dialogue mechanism with the European Union, India and many other countries.Ya'an believes that such a connection network has created a stronger framework for cooperation and provides more space for the collective interests of its member states internationally.

So far, this approach is effective.But the strategic foundation of American peace has changed fundamentally.In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China has undergone tremendous changes.As China's economic, technical capabilities and political influence have doubled, its views on the world have also changed.Today's Chinese leader no longer quotes Deng Xiaoping's preservation of obscurity.China regards itself as a major mainland country and is eager to become a marine country; it has been committed to the modernization of the army and the navy, so that its army is transformed into a world -class combat force.China is increasingly hoping to protect and promote its overseas interests and ensure its position that it should have in international affairs. This is fully understandable.

At the same time, the United States, which is still a superpower in many aspects, is re -evaluating its macro strategy.With the decrease in the share of the United States in the global GDP (GDP), it is unclear whether it will continue to bear the heavy responsibility of maintaining international peace and stability, or to adopt a narrower U.S. priority to protect itselfBenefit.As Washington puts a fundamental reflection on its liability in the global system, its relationship with Beijing has received more and more attention.

Maim and China's major choice

The United States and China are facing major choices.The United States must decide that China ’s rise is regarded as a threat of survival, trying to curb China with all possible means, or acknowledge that China itself is a big country.If the latter is selected, the United States must formulate a method of dealing with China to promote cooperation and benign competition as much as possible without allowing the overall relationship of competition damage.The ideal situation is that this competition will be carried out within the agreed multilateral framework and uses rules and guidelines similar to the United Nations and the World Trade Organization.

The United States may find that this is a painful adjustment, especially in Washington, more and more people think that contact with Beijing has failed, it is necessary to take moreTough means to safeguard their interests.However, no matter how arduous this task is for the United States, it is worth the maximum efforts to meet China's ambitions in the existing international rules and standards.This system stipulates the responsibilities and restrictions of all countries, strengthen trust, helps control conflict, and create a safer and more stable environment for cooperation and competition.

Conversely, if the United States chooses to try to curb the rise of China, it may cause a rebound, causing the two countries to embark on the road of confrontation for decades.The United States is not a declining country.It has a strong toughness and strength. One of them is that it can attract talents from all over the world. Among the Nine Nobel Prize in Science Award, eight are American citizens or later citizen become American citizens.On the other hand, the Chinese economy has huge vitality and increasingly advanced technology; it is far from a wave of Potemkin Village (editor: refers to the construction and measures specifically used to give people false impressions), nor the last few of the Soviet Union.The crumbling plan economy.Any confrontation between the two powers is unlikely to end in the case of a peaceful collapse of a country like during the Cold War.

As far as China is concerned, it must decide whether to become a unreasonable country, to do whatever they want, to win with its absolute influence and economic strength, but it must also be risked by strong resistance by the United States and other countries.This approach may exacerbate tension and dissatisfaction. In the long run, it will affect China's status and influence.This is a real danger: a recent survey of the Pew Research Center found that Canada, the United States, and other people in Asia and Western European countries have become more and more negative in China.Although China has recently worked hard to create soft power overseas, such as the network of the Confucius Institute, as well as Chinese international newspapers and television media, the situation is still not good for it.

Or, China can acknowledge that it is no longer accumulated in poverty and accepts the world's higher expectations.Politically, China is no longer reasonable to enjoy the discounts and privileges it obtained when they are smaller and less developed, such as the generous clauses when joining the WTO in 2001.A larger and more powerful China should not only respect global rules and norms, but also assume greater responsibilities, maintain and update China's international order that has achieved such brilliant achievements.If the existing rules and specifications are no longer applicable, China should cooperate with the United States and other countries to formulate positive arrangements that all countries can accept.

The road to creating new order is not flat.Powerful domestic pressure promotes and restricts the choice of foreign policies between the two countries.In the current U.S. presidential campaign, foreign policy has not received much attention. Even if there is, its main focus is also the discussion of different versions of the theme of the United States.In China, the primary task of the leadership is to ensure domestic political stability, and after the weakness and humiliation of nearly two centuries, it once again shows the ambition of an ancient civilization.Therefore, we must not think of granted that the United States and China will deal with bilateral relations based on the rational considerations of national interests, and even have a common wish of mutual benefit and win -win.The two countries may not be on the road of confrontation, but they cannot rule out the possibility of conflict.

Change in the Asia -Pacific region

These forces will be staged around the world, but a key stage will be the Asia -Pacific region.The United States has always has a crucial national interest in this region.In order to defeat Japan in the Pacific War, the United States consumed a lot of resources, paid a heavy price of bleeding, and almost lost the three future presidents.It fought two high -cost wars in North Korea and Vietnam, consolidating society and economy for non -communist countries in Asia, winning ideological struggles with communism, and striving for precious time.

The generous and open policies in the United States have greatly benefited the Asia -Pacific region. These policies originated from the deep -rooted political ideals, as well as their self -image as the city of the top of the mountain and the light of the country, but they also reflect their wise self -interest considerations.A stable and prosperous Asia -Pacific region, first of all, is the fortress against communist countries during the Cold War, and then an important area in the world that consists of many American -friendly, stable and prosperous countries.The Asia -Pacific region provides a huge market and important production base for American companies.It is no wonder that there are several most firm allies in the United States in Asia, such as Australia, Japan and South Korea, and some long -term partners, such as Singapore.

China also has major interests in this region.Northeast Asia is still shrouded in the shadow of the Second Sino -Japanese War and the Korean War.Southeast Asia is the source of Chinese energy and raw materials, economic partners, and important maritime traffic lines.In order to protect energy safety, it also regards the Malacca Strait and the South China Sea as a throat that must be open.But a key difference between the United States is that China regards the Asia -Pacific region as the so -called Near Abroad for Russia, so it is essential for its own safety.

The Pacific is large enough to accommodate China and the United States.But he also said that the security of Asia will be maintained in the final analysis.This has a problem: it is considered that the Pacific Ocean is large enough, so that the United States and China can coexist in peace. What are the overlapping friends and partnerships?Still thinking that it is large enough, can two major powers divide one of them into two, forming the scope of hostile forces?Singapore and other Asia -Pacific countries tend to interpret, it is self -evident.Although they may not have much influence on the development of the situation, they are still eager to be forced to be forced to choose between the United States and China.The security forces in the United States are still crucial to the Asia -Pacific region.Without it, Japan and South Korea will have to consider the development of nuclear weapons; both countries are nuclear threshold countries, and this topic often appears in their public discussions, especially considering North Korea's growing nuclear weapons capabilities.Fortunately, the development of these situations is still just hypothetical, but its prospects are neither conducive to the stability of Northeast Asia, nor is it conducive to global anti -diffusion efforts.

Since World War II, the Seventh Fleet has contributed to the security of Southeast Asia.It ensures that the maritime traffic line is safe and open, thereby promoting trade and economic growth.Although China's military strength is continuously enhanced, it still cannot replace the security role played by the United States.Unlike the United States, there are marine and territorial disputes in several countries in the South China Sea and the region. These countries will believe that China's naval deployment is to promote its marine and territorial claims.

Another obstacle that hinders China's replacement of the US's current security role is that many Southeast Asian countries have a lot of Chinese ethnic minorities, and their relationship with the majority of non -Chinese people is often very subtle.These countries have an excessive view of any China's excessive impact on their Chinese population, especially when China recalls the history of China ’s communist rebellion in Southeast Asian communist before the early 1980s.In the foreseeable future, these sensitive factors will restrict China's role in Southeast Asian affairs.

Singapore is the only multi -ethnic country in Southeast Asia.In fact, it is the only sovereign country in the world except China.However, Singapore has made great efforts to create a diverse race, rather than the national identity of the Chinese.Moreover, it also extremely careful to avoid doing anything that might be mistaken for itself as China.To this end, Singapore did not establish diplomatic relations with China until 1990, becoming the last Southeast Asian country to establish diplomatic relations with China except Brunei.

Of course, Singapore and other Asian countries hope to establish a good relationship with China.They want to get the goodwill and support of such a big country and participate in their development.From aircraft, mobile phones to surgical masks, the global supply chain is closely linked to China and other Asian countries.China's huge scale has made it the largest trading partner in most other Asian countries, including all the Treaty allies in the United States in the region, as well as Singapore and almost all other Asian nations.

The United States is difficult or almost impossible to replace China, becoming the world's largest supply country, just as the United States has no Chinese market, it is unimaginable.China is the third largest importer of American products, second only to Canada and Mexico.But China cannot replace the economic status of the United States in Asia.The global financial system mainly depends on U.S. financial institutions, and RMB is unlikely to replace the US dollar to become the world's reserve currency.Although the exports of other Asian countries to China exceed the out of the United StatesHowever, the US multinational company is still the largest source of foreign investment in many Asia -Pacific countries including Singapore.Large Chinese companies have begun to invest in overseas, but it takes many years to have the same scale and level as the United States.These multinational companies combine the global production chain, link Asia with global economic economy, and create millions of employment opportunities.

For these reasons, the Asia -Pacific countries do not want to be forced to make choices between the United States and China.They hope to cultivate a good relationship with both sides.They can't bear the price of alienation of China, and other Asian countries will do their best to prevent any single dispute to dominate their overall relationship with Beijing.At the same time, these Asian countries regard the United States as the permanent resident country that has major interests in the region.When the US President Barack Obama announced that the United States intends to balance its Asian foreign policy, the attitude of Asian countries is widely supported, but not every country clearly expresses it.What makes them feel relieved, although the Trump administration has proposed the problem of sharing costs and burdens with AIA and allies, it also proposes the strategy of the Indian Ocean MDASH; the Pacific Ocean, and announced that it intends to strengthen the U.S. Indian Ocean MDASH; the Pacific Command DepartmentEssence

A larger and more powerful China should not only respect global rules and norms, but also assume greater responsibilities, maintain and update China's international order that has achieved such brilliant achievements.If the existing rules and specifications are no longer applicable, China should cooperate with the United States and other countries to formulate positive arrangements that all countries can accept.