Wang Wei Wen: Will the Longxiang Chen Bings border play the Donglang incident?

Early

Double Festive

The ice and snow in the Himalayan, which came from the spring, melted, and China and India entered the dense period of each year's border patrol. However, this year, the road was suspected to be opposed to India's mountains near the mountain mouth of Ban Gonghu, which suddenly heated up the dispute between the dragon elephant.China -India is currently in a confrontation in the controversial Ladaka region, causing public opinion to worry about the 2017 Donglang incident.

About 250 soldiers in China and India were fighting on the shore of Ban Gonghu on May 5th, causing more than 100 people to be injured and opened the curtain of confrontation.After the negotiations between the Sino -Indian border disputes were unsuccessful, the two countries recently have some Chen Bing border. Among them, China has reportedly assigned at least 2,000 soldiers to Bangong Lake and Lawan Valley.

The Sino -Indian border dispute covers a border of about 3,500 kilometers. The two countries broke out in 1962, and the border disputes occurred from time to time. The most serious recent incident was the most serious.China and India had confronted for more than two months and were on the verge of war, but eventually ended peacefully.

Since the outbreak of the Sino -Indian government's confrontation, it has actually been restrained, and it is obviously unwilling to get out of control.Ren Guoqiang, a spokesman for the Ministry of National Defense, said on May 29 that China -India has the ability to communicate with the establishment of a border -related mechanism with diplomatic channels.Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian also expressed four times in the past week, saying that the situation in the current Sino -Indian border area is generally stable and controllable.

But the contradiction between China and India also made the United States smell the opportunity to expand the Indo -Pacific strategy.After U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Wales encouraged India to resist Chinese provocations on May 20, US President Trump issued a tweet (27th) to recommend himself as a peacemaker, saying that the United States is willing and capable of mediation between China and IndiaAdjust.Trump told reporters at the White House the next day that he had a discussion with Indian Prime Minister Modi to discuss the Sino -Indian border dispute, and broke the news that he (Modi) was in a bad mood because of the matter with China.

Trump's enthusiasm was rejected by Zhongyin.Zhao Lijian said on May 29: No third party intervention is required; the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement the next day to denial Trump and Modi.Indian Defense Director Raginat said in an interview on May 31 that India had declined to mediate by Trump's residence and stated that India was launched military and diplomatic negotiations.

Although China -India tried to cool down, the two sides continued to increase troops this week, and the two countries continued to light up the weapons of the three land and air forces to deter each other.US Defense News quoted military sources on June 1 that the two military sources were shifting heavy equipment, artillery and combat vehicles to the rear base of Ladaka.

While India deployed the US -made speedboat in Ban Gonghu, the PLA West Sea Fleet (Ban Gonghu Water Squadron) also showed its main emergency response power mdash; mdash; the latest 928D patrol boat.After the Indian fighter aircraft went over the disputed area, China was also exposed yesterday that 22 military planes went to China -India's confrontation frontline airport, which is rare recently.

When the two armies stepped up to increase their troops, the Indian government's low -key on the border confrontation was alive at the wild party, and India has also increasingly rising populist pressure.India's anti -China emotions are constantly heating up. A mobile phone application called removal of Chinese mobile applications (Remove China Apps) has downloaded 5 million times since its launch in India in late May.

The videos of suspected China and India's army in Ban Gonghu recently exposed, and also provoked the sensitive nerves of netizens between the two countries.A short video was widely circulated on the Chinese network and Twitter on May 31. It showed that a Chinese soldier was seized by Indian soldiers and was beaten.A photo of the Indian army was injured after the Chinese network.The Indian military was an emergency fire on the same day and rejected the video content without certification, condemning someone to maliciously release the video.

Faced with the questioning of the opposition party, the Indian Ministry of the Interior, Changsha, put out a tough posture, saying that the Modi government would not compromise at all in the confrontation with China.The attitude of the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has also undergone subtle changes. He took the initiative to disclose that Trump and Modi talked the phone the day before yesterday and discussed the situation of the Sino -Indian border.

U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo has not forgotten to add firewood recently, and has condemned China to bully India in the border confrontation.Reuters quoted Pompeo in the Institute of U.S. Enterprise of Think Tank the day before yesterday that China mobilizes the army in actual control lines, which is exactly the same as on dealing with the crown disease epidemic, South China Sea and Hong Kong. These are all actions adopted by the autocracy.

Can China -India avoid the repeat of the Donglang incident?It is foreseeable that as long as China -India is not abducted by populism, is not disturbed by the United States, and misjudgments will not occur. Although small -scale conflicts may continue to be performed in the future, Shake hands.

China -India has also been in a mature mechanism for the friction of border conflict for many years, including technical means such as withdrawal and dialogue. I believe that this time it will continue to play the role of controlling disputes.The Indian media now quoted high -level government sources on the day before yesterday that China -India has begun to show a goodwill attitude to reduce soldiers symbolically in certain regions.

The total value of China -India Trade has increased to RMB 639.5 billion last year (S $ 125.7 billion).In the world full of uncertainty after the epidemic, I believe that both countries will focus on the restart of the economy, so that the dispute between the dragon elephant will go to the dragon elephant dance.