Ye Xiuliang
Huawei already has a world -class chip design capabilities. Its weakness is that TSMC needs to produce high -end 7 -nanometer (and 5 nanometer in the future) chip for its foundry; the other weakness is to produce these high -end chips, which must use the Dutch Acel company(ASML) Advanced Optical Machine.The US Department of Commerce recently announced that it is basically prohibited from the production of these high -end chips for Huawei's foundry for Huawei. The purpose is to enable Huawei to maintain its high -end business without these chips.
However, the U.S. Department of Commerce's ban has a wide range, that is, TSMC can still complete the Huawei orders received before the ban announcement, plus Huawei ’s pre -stock stocks.Orders should be at least enough to support its operation until the end of this year, that is, after the November election in the United States.
In addition, the 5G base station with a large proportion of Huawei's business, the chips used are not so much. The most chips are actually mobile phone business.The 5G base station is a one -time output, and the mobile phone is hundreds of millions of production per year.Huawei's current base station chip inventory should be enough to support its 5G base station business in the next few years.
Countermeasures by the Chinese government and Huawei
Therefore, it should not be Huawei's 5G base station business, but the mobile phone business.In response to this issue, the Chinese government and Huawei have recently made a series of actions. The most important and most urgent of them may not be supporting SMIC, but to cooperate with Taiwan MediaTek Technology, South Korea Samsung, and Seminar Semiconductor.Although the U.S. ban prevented TSMC from producing chips designed for Huawei's foundry, it did not prevent TSMC from the chips designed by TSMC production of MediaTeng Technology and Italian Semiconductor, so these two companies can still apply to sell these high -end chips to Huawei.Essence
In addition, shortly after the U.S. Department of Commerce's ban, South Korea Samsung also announced the increase in its 7 -nanometer chip production capacity in the Chinese factory, as well as the production of 5nm chips in the future.Although the efficiency of the Samsung 7nm chip is not as high as the 7 -nanometer chip of TSMC, it is also a 7 -nanometer chip, which is enough to cope with Huawei.
Of course, the U.S. government can still prohibit or does not approve these companies to provide high -end chips to Huawei, but in this way, the US government also prohibits US chip design companies (such as Qualcomm) sell chips to Huawei.This will mean that the profit, development prospects, and even survivability of American chip companies will be severely damaged.The US government offends not only a TSMC company, but also a high -end chip supplier in the world, and the country behind foreign chip companies.Even if the US government can provide a reason to talk about past, the international political costs will not be less, and the chances of successful implementation are much lower.
TSMC did not worry about the order because of its leading technology, so he chose not to violate the US ban, but Samsung's 7nm chip has been beaten by TSMC's foundry production.Facing such large orders and development opportunities such as Huawei and China, it is almost a choice that can continue to survive and re -surpass TSMC.
Similarly, the participation of MediaTek and Semiconductor Semiconductor is of great significance to their profits, future development and survival.To successfully force them not to supply high -end chips for Huawei, the US government is equivalent to cutting off the business they think of life, which is equivalent to fighting market forces with administrative instructions; let alone this instruction is a long arm for foreign companiesJurisdiction, victory or negative is also unknown.
Even if the surface is successful, people have adjusted or changed their heads, and there are policies and countermeasures to implement these instructions. For exampleAfter Huawei mobile phones, shipped in the name of his own.Once so, the prestige of the US hegemony will be severely damaged.
In short, the above -mentioned countermeasures can solve the suppression of the US high -end chip source of Huawei in the long run, and retreat can continue at least a period of time in Huawei's mobile phone business, so that SMIC has more time, and develop the goal of achieving the goal of localization of high -end chips.Essence
The role of SMIC
Although SMIC has developed its rapid development in recent years and has begun to mass production of 14 nanometer chips, this number is still quite limited, far less than cope with China's domestic needs.SMIC plans to mass -produced N+1 (and future N+2) category 7nm chips at the end of this year. It is also unknown whether the yield that can be achieved in a very difficult achievement can reach the standard.In addition, SMIC's foundry technology has two generations in TSMC, while high -end mobile phones must use the most advanced chips.Therefore, it is the above -mentioned countermeasures that can solve Huawei's high -end mobile phone business, not the development of SMIC.
However, how long the above countermeasures can be supported are also unknown.Developing Sino -Core international foundry production technology has always been the most dependent long -term solution solution.Or home appliances only require only low -end chips.The supply in this area is actually okay.
With the recent support of the Chinese government for SMIC, if the yield of SMIC's 14 -nanometer chip can cross that high threshold, its production capacity should gradually be improved to meet Huawei's mid -range mobile phones, Chinese defense military workers and other others.Industry needs.As for whether SMIC can eventually achieve the localization of high -end chips, we still have to wait and see.
In addition to the problem of good rates, Acel was prohibited from selling the most advanced Extreme Ultraviolet Lithogram to SMIC, and it was also one of the obstacles.In this regard, SMIC can only be imported and imported by Deep Ultraviolet Lithogram, and make some changes in the process to achieve a 7 -nanometer chip with a slightly worse production performance.In addition, it is also a related countermeasure adopted by the Chinese government with preferential policies to attract Astomel to the establishment of a after -sales service center in China.
In summary, the United States should not be able to block Huawei. At least Huawei's 5G base stations and other important businesses can continue to exist and develop; it is at most that Huawei's high -end mobile phone business will be blocked.Due to the above countermeasures, Huawei's mobile phone business should be maintained for at least one period.At the same time, Huawei has also begun to accelerate the development of other businesses, such as the recent development of autonomous driving business with 15 car companies and cloud computing business that has developed high -speed in recent years.In other words, whether the United States can block Huawei's high -end mobile phone business is still unknown; even if it can, it will stimulate the creativity of Huawei and China and forcing it to develop first in other fields.
In the United States, in addition to hurting the United States technology companies, such as chip sales that affect Qualcomm, forcing Huawei to use Huawei mobile service system, breaking the monopoly of Google mobile service systems, it will also affect the international image and weaken its prestige in the United States, such asForced foreign companies to bypass the ban in different ways, forcing China and even the European Union to fight or resist the ban.More importantly, suppression, on the one hand, will cause the United States to focus on development and support its technology industry, on the other hand, it will force the Chinese government departments to work together to remove natural, bureaucratic and industrial obstacles that have hindered the development of Chinese science and technology in the past.China will also allocate more resources to support the development of science and technology, stimulate the potential, determination, and creativity of Chinese technology companies and scientific and technological personnel, accelerate China to become a major science and technology country, and form a long -lasting time in the field of science and technology in the field of science and technology.
The author is an associate professor at the Department of Economics of Nanyang Institute of Technology
In the United States, in addition to hurting the United States technology companies, such as chip sales that affect Qualcomm, forcing Huawei to use Huawei's mobile service system to break the monopoly of Google mobile service systems, it will also affect the US international image and weaken its prestige.Foreign companies bypassed the ban in different ways and forced China and even the European Union to fight or resist the ban.
