US President Trump announced on May 29 that the United States will withdraw from the World Health Organization.This seems to be expected, because he had announced the suspension of the WHO for the suspension of the WHO before (April 14).Trump has accused WHO accusing the WHO in 2019's coronary virus disease epidemic decision -making, focusing on China, not sharing the epidemic information in time, not providing timely prevention policies, and not announced the global popularity in time.Let them be responsible for this.
People have become accustomed to the US retreat under Trump.Over the years, the United States has withdrawn from the Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), UNESCO, Global Immigration Agreement, UN Human Rights Council, Iran Nuclear Agreement, Soviet and the United States to eliminate medium and medium -range missile treaties (referred to as the China Guide Treaty)., Paris Climate Agreement, etc.Is exiting the WHO another retreat?
Things may not be as simple as retreat.After Trump took charge of the United States, his foreign policy orientation has undergone a transition from an economic thinking of a very state of the United States to the normal American power thinking.In the early days, Trump's slogan was to make the United States great again.His judgment is that the United States has been involved in overseas, which has allowed the United States to bear the burden of maintaining too much international order, so the United States should reduce overseas commitments.At this point, Trump has nothing new.His predecessor Obama had done so, but Obama did not clearly propose the US priority slogan like Trump, and did not adopt a radical exit policy like Trump.
Furthermore, Trump, who has a businessman background, is more calculated from economic costs to calculate the United States from overseas.Therefore, when he feels that the money from the United States and the power he enjoyed are not different, he will reduce the share of the United States.At this point, the same is true of the ally.Over the years, Trump has been entangled with alliance for alliances and allies such as European countries, Japan, and South Korea.
The Trump administration's retirement behavior is too aggressive, too much centered on the United States, and is naturally resisted by the American elite and allies.In their opinion, the retreat means the decline of the international influence in the United States, and the United States has no country as a big country.The retreat is even opposed to the US hardliners, because for them, the retreat to a large extent means to give international space to China or other countries.
A fact that cannot be ignored is that when the United States desperately retreats, the rise of China has become more active on the international stage.For example, according to Western observers, among the 15 specialized agencies in the United Nations, China has obtained leadership positions of four institutions, including Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Industrial Development Organization (ONUDI), the United Nations International Telecommunications Alliance (UIT) and the International Civil Aviation Organization.(ICAO).The Director -General of the World Health Organization is even more considered by the West to be pro -China.
Insufficient public products impact international order
In any case, the behavior of the United States means the collapse of the existing international order.The United States became the world's largest economy in the 1890s. It started to be involved in world affairs since the First World War. After World War II, the entire West established the so -called post -war international order.A series of international organizations with the United Nations as the core are the reflection of this international order system.For a long time after the war, the United States did play the leader of this system.
Although people have been calling on the democratization of the international system, in fact, the international system is far more refugeized than the domestic system.For example, although every country has the right to speak within the United Nations, not every country has the same power.All other international organization systems are the case.In fact, because the United States is the world's largest economy, which provides international public products that provide international order survival and development.In the academic world, Robert Gilpin calls this hegemony stability.This is what Joseph Nye has proposed by Joseph Nye in recent years.That is to say, the maintenance and stability of international order requires sufficient international public products; once the international public products are insufficient or lacking, the international order will be in trouble.
However, the role of the United States playing the leadership of the international system does not mean that the United States is providing international public products alone.American leadership roles have a series of conditions.First, while the United States provides the maximum share, it also requires other countries, especially its allies (mostly developed western countries), and the United States has the ability to ask other countries to do so., Openness of the international system.The United States leads the international system, but it is not the power of exclusive international system, but to open this system to other countries (mostly Western allies); other countries enter this system and accept the level of this system, that is, accept the leadership of the United States, that is, accept the leadership of the United StatesThird, as they accept the exchange of US leadership, the United States has also opened its huge markets to these countries.
No matter what conditions, as the Italian New Marxist Antonio Gramsci said, hegemony was obtained because the hegemony can take care of the interests of other characters.
From the perspective of which aspect, today's United States has lost its international leadership capabilities and lost quickly.The United States does not seem to be able to jump out of the survival and development logic of all the empires MDash; MDASH; MDASH; the rise, expansion, excessive expansion, unsatisfactory power, and decline.Although no one will predict the last decline in the United States, people agree that the United States' power is not from the heart and relative decline today.
From this perspective, Trump has shifted from international to internal affairs.If the United States continues to expand, it will decline faster if they continue to expand overseas.
Does the decline in the United States mean the collapse of international order?uncertain.As far as international public products are concerned, if the United States does not provide so much capabilities, other countries can also provide it.Globalization has created global villages, and countries are highly dependent on each other, and they need enough international public products.Globalization has also prompted a large number of emerging countries including China. These emerging countries have strong economic power and have the ability to provide the required public products for international order.
Share international power to maintain international order
If so, there will be no international order crisis.The emergence of the international order crisis is not due to the lack of providing public products; the lack of public products is caused by international politics.To put it bluntly, international public products are just beautiful packaging boxes of international power and politics.The essence of its international public products is the international leadership.The theory of Stability of Gilping's hegemony is better than international public products that can explain the nature of international politics.
This is the essence of China and the United States on the international stage today.The United States has lost its international leadership, and China's rapid rise is also willing to bear more international responsibilities, or provide more international public products.This is also the original intention of the concept of Stakeholder, who had been a representative of the United States Trade, Deputy Secretary of State of the United States, and the Governor of the World Bank of the United States, and the Governor of the World Bank.Maintain the existing international order.
As the second largest economy, China has become the strongest maintenanceer of the post -war system for many years.In the process of rising, China did not start another stove. Instead, he chose to join the existing international system, and then changed its status through reform the existing world system to play a greater international role.On the surface, China ’s choice is the best choice for China itself and the United States, because this choice can avoid shocking to the existing international system.
But in the international political field, the problem is not so simple.Regardless of whether to play a larger role in the post -war system or in the existing system, the challenges faced by China are huge.
First of all, the United States will not withdraw from the international political stage.Although the United States has not been able to follow, it is still the largest and most country in the world, including the largest economy, the largest market, the most innovative corporate system, and the strongestLarge military power and so on.A country with so many most, not only will not withdraw from the international political stage, but also will not want to share international power with other countries, especially to share with a country with its own culture, value system, ideology and political system.that power.This is very different from the post -war British to the United States to transfer international hegemony.The international leadership of the British Glory Exit (GraceFully Exit), the United States has become the leader of the international system, not only because of a fierce war between European countries, except for the United States that is exempted from the war, the Western powers are not able to lead the world.The homogeneity of the country.
Secondly, even if the United States is unable to lead the world, can Western countries accept China?Although this world is not in the West, no matter whether people like or not, this world order is established by the Western world and has always been dominated by the Western world.Although the openness of world order enables other non -Western countries to participate, the non -Western world has never led the world.Even if other countries have accepted the role of Chinese leadership, it is difficult for China to lead the world without the acceptance of the Western world.At least from now, there is no willingness to accept Chinese leadership in the Western world; on the contrary, Western countries are always alert whether China will obtain international leadership.In this anti -epidemic process, the West has always tried to prevent China from obtaining international leadership in the process of resistance, and the reasons behind them are self -explanatory.
Chinese people believe that Guoba will decline
Again, it is more important that China itself has always expressed unintentional competition with the United States and leading the world.This aspect is because objectively China does not have enough ability to lead the world.Although China is the second largest economy in the world and will surpass the United States in the future not far, even so, China's per capita national income is far lower than the United States, and in terms of science and technology, innovation, military, corporate systems, etc.Behind the United States.At the press conference of the two sessions just past, Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang emphasized that China ’s still has a 600 millionth monthly monthly income of 1,000 yuan (about S $ 198).This shows that China will be in the position of developing countries for a long time.On the other hand, China does not have such a willingness.The national tyrants will decline, and the Chinese believe.The British Empire, Japan, and the Soviet Union were declining during the hegemony.If such a powerful U.S. leadership world is so difficult, why go to grab the leadership of the United States?
China is part of the world system and also benefits from this world system.China needs to maintain this order and is willing to cooperate with other countries, especially the United States to maintain this order.This is why China is interested in the concept of the interests of Zelike.China believes that as long as the cooperation between China and the United States, both problems can be resolved; but if the two countries have conflicts, it will be a disaster in the world.
However, the United States does not think so.The United States believes that if China continues to develop, it will sooner or later grab the United States as a world leader.
The United States does not have strong leadership capabilities, but it will not voluntarily abandon international organizations; China has not enough ability and willingness, and does not want to be the destroyer of the current system. Western countries must not only maintain the existing international order and beware of China.This means that existing international organizations are likely to exist, but it will become more and more politically, and it will become a tool for the international political struggle for major sovereign countries.Because of the struggle, the balance of each country, and the radical reform of international organizations cannot be achieved. Therefore, their efficiency will be low, corruption will continue to exist, and they will not be able to meet the needs of member states.
This situation obviously does not meet the interests of various countries.How to respond to major congresses?Where is the new order?Although many diplomats and diplomats, including Kissinger, are predicting the emergence of new order, the appearance of a new order will not be so easy.The new order will definitely not be made by repairing the old order.Historical experience shows that the new order will inevitably start from regions and parts, and expand from regional order and local order to an international order.
Whether it is the Sino -US trade war or the wrestling of China, the United States, China and the West caused by the crown disease epidemic, it shows that the world is transformed towards one world, two systems, and two markets.If the existing international organization is weakened, a world will inevitably be blurred, and the two systems and two markets will be entities.
If so, there is nothing to be surprised.After World War II, although there was a system centered on the United Nations, the Western system, such as the Seven Kingdoms (G7), still exists, and many international issues were solved through the Western system, not the United Nations system.China has long begun to supplement the existing world system, such as BRICS countries, BRICS Banks, Asian Infrastructure Investment Banks and Belt and Road Initiative.The British government is promoting the establishment of a group 10 (the original G7 plus Australia, South Korea, and India) to develop 5G technology to fight against China.If another Group such as GX will appear in the future to support another system and market, it may also be caused by the objective laws of international politics, not the original intention of China.If globalization continues to advance, people should not even be surprised that some countries will become member states of two systems and two markets at the same time.
As for how China makes this system and market competitive and achieve sustainable development, it is an important issue that needs to be discussed.
(The author is a professor at the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore)
The article only represents personal point of view
