The National People's Congress of China has recently reviewed the implementation of the China National Security Law in Hong Kong. One stone has stimulated thousands of feet waves, causing global attention and impacting the Hong Kong financial market.At present, the most urgent concern of Hong Kong citizens and foreign investors is that the implementation of the National Security Law in the Hong Kong area in Hong Kong has increased the international political storm variables and whether it will impact Hong Kong's position as an international financial center.In this regard, the following will be judged from four aspects of the stock market, property market, exchange market, and Sino -US relations.
First of all, everyone knows that the National Security Law of the Hong Kong District is aimed at the division of the country, subverting the state power, terrorist activities, and intervention of external forces. It will be implemented in Hong Kong in the three forms of the basic law attachment, and there is no need for local legislation in Hong Kong.At this time, the National People's Congress reviewed the National Security Law of the Hong Kong District. At this time, there was at least three profound meaning.
From the inside of Hong Kong, anti -repair storms have broke out since June last year, violent demonstrations and even Hong Kong independence have breeded emotions, which is imperative to establish a national security law in Hong Kong.As the social public opinion in Hong Kong has been polarized, and the problems of difficulty in reconciling various positions have emerged, it is clear that it is difficult for the establishment to obtain 2/3 seats in the Legislative Council election in September this year.The government has to resolve national security risks.
From the perspective of the surrounding environment, under the impact of the new crown pneumonia's epidemic, most western countries are busy with resistance and rebuilding the economy.The window.
The three, the Sino -U.S. Trade war was unbroken, and the Sino -US financial warfare was filled with smoke.The Chinese government has accelerated the establishment of the National Security Law for the Hong Kong, which has both guaranteeing the stability of Hong Kong's political situation and maintaining the urgency of Hong Kong's financial system operation. It also has the need to protect China's national financial security.
However, a good time in the eyes of the Chinese government may be a good time to US President Trump.At this moment, Trump is in accordance with the responsibility of the epidemic treatment method in China, and it is not good for the re -election of the president in November this year. China's move is undoubtedly an indirect reason for helping him to transfer the sight of the people in the country.Trump will use the National Security Law of the Hong Kong District to hype Chinese issues to play Hong Kong cards and restrain China.To say no, to increase the chance of re -election.
Therefore, as a grinding between China and the United States, Hong Kong, who is passively trapped in international political storm, is expected to be like a lonely sea of sea in the future, turbulent.However, the author also believes that Hong Kong has undergone storms in the past few decades, and its status of its international financial center is quite tough, and it will definitely not break in one blow.
In terms of the stock market, the famous Hong Kong stock crisis in history includes the 4 days of the stock market disaster in 1987, the Asian financial turmoil in 1997, the 2000 science network bubble explosion, 2008 financial tsunami caused by the storm in 2007, 2015 in 2015, 2015The 811 exchange reform caused Hong Kong stocks to frustration.Among them, the two major stock disasters before Hong Kong returned to China were the most thrilling: the Hong Kong stock market disaster triggered by the 1970s of the Petroleum Crisis made the Hang Seng index from 1,774 points in 1973, and it started to bottom out at 150 in 1974.Once more than 90%.Another stock disaster, which fell more than 50%of the Hang Seng Index, occurred from 1981 to 1984.At that time, China and Britain triggered the crisis of confidence in Hong Kong on the sovereignty of Hong Kong, which once triggered outflow of funds.The Hang Seng Index fell from the highest 1810 points in July 1981 to 676 points in December 1982, and the accumulation fell nearly 63%, which was also extremely shocking.Start rebounding and quickly rose to the 1200 -point mark.
So far in China and Britain's negotiations, Hong Kong has once again been in international political storms, so will the Hang Seng Index repeat the same mistakes, which has a lot of frustrations?The author believes that the storm is reduced in the short term or triggering Hong Kong stocks, and the mid -term stock market atmosphere is also shrouded in dense fog. In the next few months, the trend of the Hang Seng Index will inevitably have a wave and no increase.However, the possibility of panic stock disaster is not high.
This is because on the one hand, the total number of Chinese -funded enterprises in Hong Kong has more than 4,000, and the total assets exceeded $ 3 trillion. Especially in the Hong Kong -funded financial institutions, there are one of the world's financial territory in Hong Kong.Power supports Hong Kong stocks.On the other hand, the funds of Mainland China go south and Hong Kong's stocks can be as high as 42 billion yuan. In terms of Hong Kong stocks and daily transactions, the funds south have also had a significant influence.And once the stock market continues to fall, the shareholders of various blue chip companies, of course, have greatly induced the repurchase stocks to stabilize the stock price.
On the other hand, the Hong Kong stock market has a large number of mature international and local institutional investors in Hong Kong. It does not dismiss the capital because of the market plunge, and often uses the bottom.As Hong Kong, as the only international market that can invest in China, of course, institutional investors cannot give up completely.For retail investors, panic is definitely not a smart choice.Bank of America has analyzed data from 1930 to the present: If investors have missed the S & P 500 Index's best 10 trading days every 10 years, the total return rate is 91 %.If investors choose to stay in the stock market for continuous investment, the total return rate is close to 15,000 %.
After analyzing the stock market, I predicted the performance of the Hong Kong property market.As one of the standards of the international financial center status, various political events in the past have different degrees of influence on the Hong Kong property market.According to public data, before Hong Kong returned to China, as early as the June 7 riots in the last century, Hong Kong property prices had accumulated 42%.In the early 1980s, the China -British negotiations fell by about 32%.On the contrary, due to the impact of political storm in the late 1980s, property prices in Hong Kong fell about 4%briefly, but then, property prices rebounded crazy in the fourth quarter of the same year, and a 17%increase in the year.
After Hong Kong returned to China, the property prices in Hong Kong had fallen 11%during the legislative period in 2003. The social incidents caused by anti -repair in 2019 caused the accumulation of property prices to fall by about 6%.Instead, during the occupation of the Central Movement from September to December 2014, property prices not only fell 5.9%, but also increased.
Why can't the property market fall more and more?The answer is not complicated. Since Hong Kong has been in a state of lack of land supply in the past ten years, it has just been very strong purchasing power, and property prices are easy to rise. After the negative factors are eliminated, property prices have rapidly launched retaliatory waves.
Under the current height uncertainty, the National Security Law of the Hong Kong District is likely to have a short -term impact on Hong Kong property prices.The most obvious response will appear in industrial and commercial properties. The social movement and the impact of the new crown epidemic since June last year, and facing today's political events, it has made business difficulties in business.The price of industrial and commercial properties has accelerated.In terms of the first -hand housing market, the developer will push the market in the short term will hold the wait -and -see attitude, and the new price pricing material will be conservative.In the short term of the second -hand market, the transaction volume may also fall. Some owners with insufficient funds or work changes may be cash out. Owners with sufficient cash may also choose to be resold to rent.
However, in the middle and long period of time, the situation in which the property market in Hong Kong has not changed has not changed, and property prices have not actually fallen.Even if a large change has caused Hong Kong property prices to suddenly fall, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government also has extremely sufficient ammunition in the hands of the Government of the SARS, including withdrawal for the property market.(Including mainland residents) restrictions on buying houses in Hong Kong.
In terms of the foreign exchange market, before the news of the National People's Congress of the People's Congress of China was released, the 12 -month Hong Kong dollar contract was less than 7.78, but the latest (May 25) was reported to 7.8336.It indicates that the Hong Kong dollar is further weakened or there are signs of capital outflow.However, the total assets of foreign exchange funds used to support the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate have now reached 4259.1 billion Hong Kong dollars (US $ 546 billion). After the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the Hong Kong financial regulatory authorities took strict pressure on banks, even if in 2008,The global financial tsunami and the impact of the Sino -US trade war in 2019 have not caused the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate to crisis.Hong Kong has long proved that it has the ability to bear the test of large amounts of funds out of flow, and the financial market price has fluctuated significantly.Even if there is a huge amount of funds flowing away, there are more than $ 3 trillion foreign exchange reserves behind China as a backbone, which should be able to guarantee that the Hong Kong dollar's foreign exchange market will not shake the status of Hong Kong's international financial center.
However, the author has to emphasize that the above inference is based on the conclusions of the US President Trump's not in the case of Hong Kong.However, the United States has passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democratic Acts at the end of last year. It is generally believed that if the Trump administration did not respond to the National Security Law of the Hong Kong area, it would be considered weak to China. Therefore, the US government has a huge cause of sanctions on Hong Kong.
There are currently at least three strict sanctions plans in Trump's pockets.
First, in accordance with the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Acts, some officials and enterprises of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government prohibit high -tech products from entering Hong Kong, and the cancellation of Hong Kong's special status, and no longer regard Hong Kong as an independent customs zone.Second, the U.S. government restricts certain enterprises to go to Hong Kong or set up headquarters in Hong Kong, and steps up to investigate various types of funds to Hong Kong. Hong Kong funds entering and exiting will be controlled by the US government and US -funded enterprises required to withdraw from Hong Kong in Hong Kong.The most extreme sanctions are to exclude Hong Kong's financial institutions, enterprises or individuals outside the international settlement system. Hong Kong cannot use US dollars to cut off international transactions and cause Hong Kong to fall into a systematic crisis.
How much may be implemented by the U.S. government's sanctions and the status of Hong Kong's international financial center?
First, if some officials and enterprises in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government in the United States are prohibited from entering Hong Kong in high -tech products, it will cause damage to some Hong Kong officials and industries, but it will not affect the overall Hong Kong as a whole.If the United States cancels the status of Hong Kong's independent tariff area, of course, it will have a substantial impact on the economic and trade market in Hong Kong.However, from the perspective of data, the total amount of products in Hong Kong is only about 500 million US dollars per year, and foreign trade does not mainly depend on the United States.On the other hand, its trade surplus in Hong Kong has reached 297 billion US dollars in the past 10 years, only over 30 billion U.S. dollars in 2018.In addition, Hong Kong is not only a single economic system for the United States to earn the highest trade surplus, but also the third largest red wine export market in the United States, the fourth largest beef and beef products export market, and the seventh largest agricultural product export market.Therefore, if the U.S. government takes this measure, it is the most severe export product.
Second, if the United States restricts some companies to go to Hong Kong or set up headquarters in Hong Kong, regulates Hong Kong's funds in and out, and requires the evacuation of US -funded enterprises in Hong Kong, will inevitably cause the international market to lose confidence in Hong Kong., Which triggered a sharp decline in property prices, a large number of enterprises went bankrupt and a large number of people were unemployed. The status of Hong Kong's international financial center may not be guaranteed.
But it is worth noting that this measure is also harmful to the United States.There are about 1,400 US companies operating in Hong Kong, of which 283 areas headquarters and 443 regional offices are the largest in countries or regions around the world. In additionCommunity.The total asset value and customer deposits of US financial institutions in Hong Kong are about $ 148 billion and $ 79 billion, respectively, and invest in Hong Kong's huge amount.Coupled with the acceleration of China's financial industry, this is an opportunity that the United States and even global financial institutions cannot let go.At present, more than 800 funds in the world are in charge of nearly $ 2 trillion in assets, of which about 25%of their investment are on Chinese stocks (most of them are Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong).Investment shares.
It can be seen from a series of data that if the US government sanctions Hong Kong, it will not only give Western companies including American companies abandon the rich return of the Hong Kong market in the future, but even the past investment in Hong Kong has become elastic, which seriously damages its commercial interests.Moreover, these financial institutions will also miss the dividend of China's economic growth in the future, and the consequences will seriously damage the vested interests.U.S. companies and Wall Street financial institutions are not central enterprises and state -owned enterprises in the United States. Are these business and financial crocodiles willing to obey and implement the political decisions of the US government. For Trump's personal presidential election, they will damage their own business interests?
Third, the most extreme option is that the US government directly excludes Hong Kong from the US dollar system.The possibility of such a big move is lower, but you may wish to predict the readers.If the United States sacrifice this trick, Hong Kong will instantly lose its international financial center status.At this point, it is expected that the Chinese government will also take the most intense counterattack, including but not limited to restricting the export of rare earths to the United States to strike the high -tech industry of the United States, promote the depreciation of the RMB, extend the resistance of American agricultural products, in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, North KoreaThe problem of creating trouble, even accelerating the internationalization of the RMB, accelerating the development of the RMB cross -border payment system (CIPS), allowing Hong Kong to directly become the international financial center of the RMB, and to promote the US dollar in the international market, impact the US dollar as the main international main international main internationalThe status and other means of currency are like a comprehensive war except the thermal weapons in China and the United States.
It can be seen that any one of the three options in Trump's pockets hurts the enemy for one thousand, and it will be difficult to suffer from the strong opposition from the American business and Wall Street.Earlier, the American business community and Wall Street supported Trump to launch a trade war with China because American companies hoped that Trump can be a US company to strive for more discounts and special treatment in Chinese businessmen.door.If Trump's three sanctions on Hong Kong, especially the launch of financial sanctions, will cause the American business and Wall Street to stop the Chinese market and be forced to abandon the huge opportunities of 1.4 billion people. The impact and losses are difficult to estimate.
If Trump forcibly sanction Hong Kong regardless of the interests of the American business and Wall Street, it will force these behind -the -scenes gold owners to launch the power of political agent, public opinion power, and lobbying groups to obstruct Trump's re -election.For Trump, it will make him a bad choice and worsen.Take a step back, if Trump insists on sanctioning Hong Kong, it is very likely that in the near future, it will only sacrifice some officials and enterprises sanctioning the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, and prohibit high -tech products from entering Hong Kong's options that have less impact on its election.Other options must wait for him to succeed in re -election, but at that time, Mu has become a boat. I believe that the National Security Law of the Hong Kong District has been implemented in Hong Kong for a long time.
Therefore, I predict that under the circumstances of Sino -US relations, China ’s launch of the National Security Law of the Hong Kong District will cause US President Trump to respond strongly, playing Hong Kong cards, and put pressure on China in many directions.But at the same time, its strategy is more inclined to be thunderous and heavy, trying to intimidate Hong Kong and Mainland China, forcing mainland China and Hong Kong to make more benefits to enhance the chance of winning his presidential re -election.
This is the best era and the worst era.If the plot development is as expected, Hong Kong has the opportunity to usher in the best era: the implementation of the National Security Law of the Hong Kong District will help eliminate Hong Kong's political doubts, which will not only restore the order and stability of the society. At the same time, the rules of the National Security Law can be planned.The clear boundaries have made Hong Kong people and the outside world see that the foundation of the rule of law in Hong Kong has not been weakened, and the commitment of one country, two systems has not deteriorated. This will make foreign investors more confident in business in Hong Kong. It will also attract more foreign investors to go.Investment in Hong Kong.In the Hong Kong stock market, more and more stocks in the United States and China are listed in Hong Kong, which has increased the proportion of new economic ingredients, which greatly increases the depth of Hong Kong stocks. It also allows investors to have more choices. It will undoubtedly consolidate and developHong Kong's status as an international financial center.
More importantly, if Hong Kong's political environment and social order can be resumed after the implementation of the National Security Law of the Hong Kong District, it will help the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government to gradually solve the years of unsolved economic development, land problems, housing problems, youth employment problems, etc.Grasp the opportunities of the construction of the Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao Greater Bay Area and the Belt and Road Initiative to obtain the dividend of China's development. As long as the Hong Kong people are united and work together, Hong Kong can definitely start again.
However, if the plot is not expected, Trump will not play cards according to common sense, and he will sanction Hong Kong with the heart of fish dead nets and confront many western countries and China. Hong Kong is likely to fall into a worst era.For a long time, Hong Kong's core coreThe competitive advantage is actually a cluster effect consisting of many professionals such as lawyers, accountants, investment banks, professional consulting and academic elites. The opportunity of Hong Kong's future Dongshan will be resurrected in the future. Maybe it depends on whether most professionals can adhere to and rebuild Hong Kong together.
From a small fishing port to an international financial center, Hong Kong is by no means the first time in the face of huge uncertainty. Almost every time the worst era passed, Hong Kong regained the fanfare and entered the best era.The stubborn and intelligent Hong Kong people may be prepared for the worst today, and at the same time look forward to the best era.
(The author is the dean of the Silk Road Zhigu Research Institute. This article only represents the author's point of view. Editor -in -chief email: [email protected])
