Society: Strategic choice of Taiwanese enterprises under the flames of the United Stat

Source: Taiwan Economic Daily

In the case of the trade war that could not occupy a big sweetness, the Trump administration fell back to fight scientific and technological warfare.In just a few days, there were two consecutive moves: first forced TSMC to announce the plan to invest in the advanced wafer fabal factory in the United States, with a total investment of 12 billion U.S. dollars; then, the US Department of Commerce announced the new regulations for export control and comprehensively blocking chip manufacturers using American technology.Supply semiconductor to China Huawei.

Prior to this, the US government restricted exports that the components made by the United States (technology) accounted for more than 25%of the total value, and then modified to 10%. The new regulations this time are equivalent to lowering it to zero in one breath.However, similar to the past, the new sanction policy has also set a 120 -day buffer period.The purpose is to safeguard the interests of American companies, because the influence of American chips is estimated to reduce the export value by 37%, with a total value of 83 billion US dollars, which is too impact; followed by leaving room for negotiation.The lack of details and timetables in the relevant sanctions policies is to create conditions for the continuous game.

Compared with the confession, the United States forced TSMC to invest in the United States, and there is a plan to look at the future and rebuild the complete semiconductor industry for the United States.TSMC invests in the United States to set up factories. From the consideration of economic benefits, it is obviously not profitable. Compared with Taiwan, such as economics, employee composition, and industrial chain system, related decisions are not economical.It is a political consideration.As for the Trump administration, of course, I also understand the truth, but it seems that I want to bet on a larger game, that is, I foresee many difficulties in TSMC's investment in the United States.Talent, and semiconductor -related upstream and lower reaches, with TSMC, also gathered in the United States.

The show of the US -China Science and Technology War has now clearly emerged. The two protagonists and two supporting actors have been clearly emerged. The plot is the second act of the Middle Ages.

It is not necessary to say more about the situation in the Middle Ages of the United States. The United States has adopted a curbing strategy for China since Obama, but the effect is not good. Trump has changed the string and decided to do it directly with China.Again scientific and technological warfare, in the end, military warfare is not ruled out.From March 2018 to early 2020, the two sides were mainly confrontation with the trade war, during which the scientific and technological warfare was also sporadic.In the end of 2019, the US -China relations have deteriorated significantly. Kissingh, the founder and witness of the US -China relations, could not help but propose: If U.S. -China relations are not restricted to allow their natural development, the results will be compared to comparedIn the last century, World War I was serious.Fortunately, it is not too late, because it is only at the foot of the Cold War.

However, the development of the situation seems to exceed his expectations. First, the new crown epidemic broke out after 2020, which further deteriorated US -China relations.Realization, therefore decided to formally open up the science and technology battlefield.

The outposts of the United States launched the scientific and technological war were the ZTE incident and the Meng Wanzhou incident. It aims to combat Huawei and then let a group of countries refuse to buy Huawei equipment through various influences, but after two years, it fails to work, so it is re -deployed.Decided to make a fierce move: comprehensively disconnect.The United States locks Huawei because Huawei has ahead of the United States in the field of 5G and leads the world; and 5G has 5G in the Industrial Revolution 4.0.Huawei fought into death.Since the supply is to be completely disconnected, it is necessary to start from all companies that supply Huawei's semiconductor, including TSMC, including Qualcomm, such as Qualcomm and one of the largest suppliers.Of course, all the companies that are restricted to Huawei have faced huge losses. TSMC and companies in Taiwan's industrial chain have become sandwich cakes, which are unprecedented in dilemma and difficulties.

The century -old game with China and the United States as the two main characters, two supporting roles appeared in the second -act science and technology war, which were Huawei and TSMC.Huawei's choice does not have suspense. Naturally, it is mainland China. The main strategy is to change time (market) in space (market).As for Taiwan's high -tech electronics industry, which is headed by TSMC, facing technology dependence on the United States, the market dependence on mainland China will increase year by year. Therefore, its strategic choice depends on the judgment of the two situations: First, the future of China is relatedThe ability and speed of catching up with science and technology are the potential and speed of the scale of the market in mainland China.Simply put, it is the ultimate contest between technical orientation and market -oriented.