Qi Dongtao
As always, in the inauguration speeches of Tsai Ing -wen on May 20, she maintained her consistent low -key and flat style, and did not bring any accidents to various circles.
From the perspective of mainland China, because she did not explicitly accept the principles of China in her speech, she criticized that she still did not come up with a qualified answer sheet.But because the mainland has long determined that she will not openly accept the principles of China, she is not surprised by her speech.
On the one hand, the United States has always been in low -key cooperation with the rapid improvement of US -Taiwan relations, and on the other hand, she has not actively provoked the style of the mainland, so she should also be very satisfied with her speech.The day before the speech, US Secretary of State Pompeo publicly congratulated Tsai Ing -wen.This unprecedented big movement shows that he has already known the content of the speech in advance, and the US Taiwan mutual trust can be said to have reached a new height.
By comparing with Tsai Ing -wen's inauguration four years ago, we can find some new features of this speech.First of all, unlike when working four years ago, she used a lot of words to thank you for choosing her. This time, she started with Taiwan as a community.Important cornerstone of growth.
In the discussion, she first mentioned the Republic of China, and then mentioned the country twice to Taiwan. In fact, it is explained that the success of Taiwan's success resistance has greatly enhanced the recognition of the Republic of China as a country as a country, and it has formed a stronger strongerConsciousness of Destiny Community.This discussion not only meets the needs of Taiwanese nationalism, but also makes the mainland unable to catch the handle. It is a very clever expression.
Of course, if the mainland uses a magnifying glass, it will be said that this is also based on epidemics, which is essentially trying to use the epidemic to fight for the international health organization.sex.
Secondly, it is completely different from four years ago that more than four months of epidemic promoting changes in international politics and economic acceleration, providing Taiwan with unprecedented challenges and opportunities. Cai Yingwen used unprecedented challenges and excellent opportunities to summarize.The big background of Taiwan's four -year Taiwan sounds like a century -old change that Chinese leaders have proposed a few years ago.
Although both of them talk about the huge challenges facing each other, they also emphasize that the opportunities brought by the big change can help themselves achieve a more favorable position in strategic. Therefore, it is essentially an optimistic and inspiring statement.However, in terms of cross -strait relations, if the relationship between the two parties continues to be tense, it is impossible to be optimistic at the same time, and one party will inevitably become more and more passive.
Again, unlike four years ago, Cai’s speech put national defense, diplomacy, and cross -strait relations together under the topic of national security, and then with other topics, such as economic development, social stability, system strengthening, and deepening democracy, etc., togetherPut under the topic of national construction projects.
Once again, we saw that Cai's emphasis on Taiwan as a country, trying to put all the work we did on the nationalist label for the country like Taiwan.Of course, this is the appetite of Taiwanese nationalism, which has been constantly launched by her and the DPP in the past year.
Specific to the cross -strait relations, in fact, there are some places that are worth further.From the perspective of the number of words, the discussions on cross -strait relations in the two -time speech are only more than 300 words, accounting for 5%of the lectures of nearly 6,000 words. It can be said that it is not the focus of the speech.No extravagance.
Like last time, this time she still stated that she would follow the regulations on the Constitution of the Republic of China and the Cross -Strait People's Relations, and euphemistically expressed a China that recognizes Taiwan.Just a few days before her inauguration, the DPP legislator Cai Yiyu withdrew from the Legislative Yuan to delete the proposal to delete the unified relevant text of the countries in the Republic of China Constitution and Cross -Strait People's Relations Regulations, which also shows that Cai Yingwen did not want to be regarded by the mainland as active provocation.
In addition, when she rejected one country, two systems, the reason proposed was no longer that democracy and authority that had been said before could not exist in a country at the same time, or Taiwan was already an independent country, but to dwarf Taiwan, one country, two systems, and destroying the status quo of the Taiwan Strait.Is this implied: If the mainland can propose a solution that does not dwarf Taiwan, Taiwan is likely to accept it?If the DPP believes that the biggest obstacle to unity is the different political system of both sides, and the unity must wait until the mainland has achieved desktop democracy, then unity is indeed far away.
However, if you think that the biggest obstacle of unity is the unequal status of the two sides, because the mainland can actually find a unified way to make Taiwan feel equal, then unity is not far away.Although Tsai Ing -wen continued to reject one country, two systems, it didn't sound as decisive as before.
Tsai Ing -wen also said that cross -strait relations are at a historical turning point. He hopes that mainland leaders and her should take the responsibility of improving cross -strait relations.The statement of the turning point is a bit confusing, as she is still regarded by the mainland as an unqualified speech by the mainland, cross -strait relations will only continue to deteriorate. How can there be a turning point?How can such a speech hopes that the leaders of the other side will improve cross -strait relations according to their own ideas?
In fact, although Tsai Ing -wen has always dealt with the relationship with the mainland very carefully, the mainland in her second term will likely become her biggest challenge.The biggest reason is not Taiwan, but conflicts between China and the United States.The epidemic has exacerbated the conflict between China and the United States, and further enhances Taiwan's strategic value for the United States. The United States will inevitably develop relations with Taiwan in more fields.
For the mainland, the greater the value of Taiwan for the United States, the greater the threat to itself.So to a large extent, Washington, not Tsai Ing -wen, controls Taiwan's threat to the mainland.Although Tsai Ing -wen insists on not provoking the mainland, she can't stop Washington's use of Taiwan to stimulate the mainland.The patience of the mainland is not the bottom line, and it will inevitably increase the pressure on Taiwan in all aspects of economics, diplomacy, and military.
Many people believe that the epidemic has seriously hit China's economy, and China is also even more popular internationally, which may force the mainland to take the initiative to improve the relationship with Taiwan.But the situation in the eyes of many Chinese people is exactly the opposite: they believe that the epidemic has a more serious blow to the US economy. China will be the first major country to recover from the epidemic.With the economic strength of the first recovery, it will be more influential internationally; the global production value chain may be reorganized, but the Chinese economy will change the cage in the reorganization with the advantages of talents, infrastructure, funds, and markets that have accumulated for a long time., Get up to the next level.
To put it simply, mainland China has not been frustrated because of his epidemic, but he feels that he is more brave.This enhanced self -confidence will inevitably have a greater conflict with the United States that is increasing in the United States, and Taiwan will inevitably suffer a greater impact.
In the increasingly intensified competition between China and the United States, in the international situation of acceleration changes, the next four years have provided a sufficient time for the mainland to prepare and implement various actions against Taiwan.Now that Taipei has formed a benign cycle interactive mechanism with Washington, of course, this will continue to provide Tsai Ing -wen to be happy; however, the problem is that the interactive mechanism of a vicious cycle is also forming a vicious cycle.This malignant cycle ability.This external irresistivation will be the biggest challenge of her second term.
Judging from the internal situation of Taiwan, Tsai Ing -wen faces an unprecedented favorable environment.Successful resistance has allowed her and the DPP to continue the political situation of rising since the beginning of the year.According to the polls of the New Taiwan National Policy Think Tank, the ratio of the public ratio of Cai Yingwen's performance in May last year was 34.5%, and in May this year, it has risen significantly to 74.5%;68.9%; the growth rate of the satisfaction rate of Minister of Health and Welfare and the anti -epidemic commander Chen Shizhong was even more amazing, from 37.3%a year ago to 93.4%, which fully reflects the huge impact of successful resistance on Taiwan's public opinion.
Economically, the economic growth of Taiwan in the first quarter of Taiwan was 1.54%, and it is expected to increase by 2.37%throughout the year. The economic growth rate will undoubtedly become the first of the four Asian dragons.fromIn terms of unemployment rate, the unemployment rate in Taiwan in February and March was 3.7%, which has not changed much in the same period last year.Because the impact of the epidemic on economy and society is not particularly serious, the budget of stimulating economic development by the Taiwan government only accounts for 5.5%of GDP, which is lower than many developed countries.More importantly, the DPP's largest political opponent Kuomintang has not seen signs of going out of the trough so far, giving the Cai Yingwen government more governance space.
In the past four years, Tsai Ing -wen has transformed the opportunity to the United States with the pressure on the mainland into her own political capital, making people have to look at her.In the next four years, can she still be at ease in the situation of tightness in the outside?Perhaps, when Tsai Ing -wen and her team faced this situation, they were also relaxed and tight on the surface?
The author is the National University of Singapore
Researcher of East Asia Research Institute
