With the increase in China's production costs, the acceleration of domestic economic transformation and the Sino -US trade war, etc., a considerable number of multinational enterprises have considered or are transferring part of the supply chain to China to realize the diversification of China's +1 supply chain diversification.strategy.
Southeast Asia is an open -oriented area of interconnection. As the 2019 coronary virus epidemic has set out at the same time in many countries, the situation in the Southeast Asia prevention and control epidemic is severe, and the confirmed cases are rapidly increasing.
Different Southeast Asian countries have a large gap in the public health system, medical facilities conditions and medical resources. Therefore, countries have different abilities in responding to the infectious disease outbreak.Based on the 2019 Global Competitiveness Report, Singapore ranks first in the world in the sanitary competitiveness index of evaluating the level of medical system level; however, many countries such as Laos and the Philippines are rearring.
If the epidemic spreads, a country with a weak public health system will be overwhelmed.Therefore, Southeast Asian countries must take strong measures to detect suspected patients, isolation, and the treatment of diagnosis patients to reduce the disease rate, while tracking close contact and prevent and control community infection.
In the context of the epidemic raging worldwide, both global halo and the influence of international organizations have become dim.On the contrary, the toughness of the country becomes particularly important.The crown disease epidemic shows that it is important to build a powerful country.The toughness will regain the key position of the country's overall competitiveness and become the core factor affecting competitiveness.The toughness of a country is composed of its response ability, administrative coordination ability, medical resource deployment ability, technological development strength and social cohesion.
Taking South Korea as an example, since the outbreak of the epidemic in mid -February, the South Korean authorities have taken strong measures to basically control the epidemic in about one month.It is commendable that South Korea has not implemented a measure of city closure and has not taken extreme measures to stop public transportation.Behind the Korean epidemic prevention model shows the toughness of its country.
On February 20, 2020, the Foreign Minister of China and the 10 countries in Asia, gathered Vientiane Elephant in Laos, and held a special meeting on crown disease issues in China.The joint statement issued after the meeting reflects the determination to strengthen cooperation between China and Asian's member states and cope with the epidemic.The two sides will improve cooperation in the field of public health, medical professionals exchanges, and improve the emergency mechanism of bilateral public health crisis.
Negative impact on Asia's Safe Economy
As a near neighbor, Southeast Asia is the area with the most close economic and trade exchanges with China.As an important tourist source market, the core of the global industrial chain, and important trading partners, China plays an important role in promoting economic growth in regional countries.China is the largest trading partner of many member states in Asia.On the one hand, the proportion of exports to Asia's exports to the total exports of China is increasing; on the other hand, the proportion of imports from Asia in Asia's imports in China's total imports are also increasing.China and Asians' member states have established close economic and trade links through the global supply chain industry chain.
In 2019, the total foreign trade in Asia was US $ 2199.2 billion, of which 18%of the trade with China, much higher than that of the second place in the EU (10%) and the third place in Japan (8.1%).In addition, in the field of investment, although China's investment in Asianan is still lower than the United States, the European Union and Japan, the growth momentum of investment in Chinese enterprises in the past few years cannot be underestimated.In 2019, China's investment in the region reached 15.5 billion US dollars, accounting for more than 13%of China's foreign investment.
In terms of breadth or depth, the economic connection between China and Asians today is higher than ever.China has become the second largest economy in the world, accounting for 16%of the global economy.The most direct impact of Chinese factors on the Asian economy comes from two aspects.
First of all, the revenue of Asian tourism depends on Chinese tourists.Asia Finean has rich natural resources, diverse humanities, unique scenery, and neighboring China. Therefore, this area is favored by Chinese tourists.In 2018, Chinese tourists visited more than 30 million people in Southeast Asia.Tourists from China have a very high proportion of admission tourists from all countries, especially Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia.
The flocked Chinese tourists are active in local tourist attractions.According to the data released by the McKinsey Global Institute in July 2019, Chinese tourists spending in Thailand are equivalent to 7%to 9%of Thai personal consumption.However, with the development of the epidemic, China has stopped traveling from domestic tourists from the country, and many countries have adopted measures to restrict Chinese tourists from entering the country.
Chinese tourists have fallen sharply, which has a huge impact on the tourism industry, aviation, catering industry, and other supporting service industries in Asia's Gyeongan.For countries, such as Thailand and Cambodia, which are used as pillar industries, they have the greatest impact.
Secondly, the Asianan country participated in the global industrial chain centered on China, relying on exported raw materials and intermediate products to China, and used to complete the final processing assembly in China.According to McKinsey Global Research Institute's report data from China and the world in July 2019, the export of Chinese exports accounted for 11%of Malaysia and Vietnam's domestic output value.Take Vietnam as an example, although Vietnam has developed its export -oriented manufacturing industry in recent years.However, Vietnam's production at this stage cannot leave raw materials and intermediate products from China. This is the dilemma faced by Vietnam and many other Asianan countries.For Southeast Asia, it is unrealistic or phenomenon to de -Chineseization in industrial development at this stage.
Since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, China has established a strong comparative advantage in the global industrial chain.On the contrary, the industrial system of the Ya'an country is not sound, and the lack of complete industrial facilities in upstream and downstream.Most countries have a trade deficit to China, especially Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines.If the deficit continues, it will eventually be not conducive to the industrialization of these countries.
Industrial Chain Reorganization and Asian Sannian Development Opportunities
With the increase in China's production costs, the acceleration of domestic economic transformation and the Sino -US trade war, there are already considerable number of multinational enterprises, considering or transferring part of the supply chain to China to achieve the diversified supply chain of China +1Out of strategy.For example, after closing the factory in Huizhou, Guangdong in October 2019, South Korea Samsung Electronics completed the goal of transferring its supply chain capacity out of China.At the same time, Samsung set up two large assembly factories in Vietnam.
The crown disease is urgent to deepen the diversification and reorganization of global supply chain.The reorganization of the industrial chain is no longer a matter of whether it is or not, but the problem of time and degree. The epidemic will become a turning point for the reorganization of the global industrial chain.According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce of China, from January to February 2020, China's actual use of foreign capital decreased by 8.6%compared with the same period last year; of which February was a significant decline of 25.6%compared with the same period last year.A survey report released by the US Chinese Chamber of Commerce in February stated that one -third of American companies will move out of China when the factory cannot start.
Seizing the opportunities brought by China's development is important for promoting the economic growth of Asia in Asia.Nevertheless, the epidemic is a wake -up to Asia, which is economically transitioning to China, and the industrial chain centered on China to achieve economic growth. It has huge risks.In recent years, the attitude of the Asianan country has become increasingly complicated to China and has become more cautious.According to the questionnaire survey report released by the Erv Isa East South Asian Research Institute in Singapore in January 2020, as high as 71.9%of the respondents, worried about China's economic influence in the region.
Southeast Asia is one of the fastest -growing regions in the world. The region's young laborers are sufficient, the middle class has continued to expand, the regional market potential is huge, and the rich natural resources and the low production costs.Play more important roles in the global industrial chain.
Global supply chain reorganization provides an opportunity for Southeast Asian countries to accelerate the development of the manufacturing industry. The Asianan country should seize the opportunities brought by the global industrial chain decentralization and reorganization, and implement the bold economy and labor field reformRevolution, thereby vigorously develop manufacturing.
(The author is a senior researcher at the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore)
