Author: Liu Jincai
The Cross -Strait Economic Cooperation Architecture Agreement (ECFA) has signed on June 29, 2010 and will expire on the 10th anniversary of June 29, 2020.Because the ECFA is only a framework agreement, its subsequent agreement is interrupted due to the 2014 Sun Flower Study Movement.Although the DPP government has repeatedly clarified that all agreements on the cross -strait signing on both sides of the Taiwan Strait have continued to be effective, the mainland authorities suspended the free travel of Luke in August 2019, and the Lu Sheng came to Taiwan to study in April 2020.Cooperation has tightened, and this year, the entire ECFA will be invalidated.
First of all, cross -strait authorities signed ECFA to have a positive effect on the peaceful development of cross -strait.The people of Taiwan sharing the opportunities and bones of the development of mainland China are conducive to the convergence of the minds of people on both sides of the strait, and through peaceful development to a peaceful process.However, in recent days, many academic circles have pointed out whether to renew the visa. It must be based on the clear cross -strait on the basis of the 1992 consensus that the country and the two sides of the strait.However, the DPP has publicly announced that the political foundation of the 1992 consensus has not been recognized. In fact, the basis of the renewal and operation of the ECFA has been destroyed., Anti -China and Anti -China route.
Secondly, the Democratic Progressive Party has different stances before and after the operation of ECFA, full of contradictions and opposition discussions.In 2010, Cai Yingwen, then the chairman of the DPP, led the anti -ECFA parade of the people's referendum as the owner, claiming that he would block the ECFA and launch a referendum decision in the Legislative Yuan.The Sunflower Student Movement broke out in March 2014, leading to abortion of cross -strait service trade agreements.From the gradual movement of the student movement of the Sunflower anti -service trade to anti -China and anti -China movement, it can be said that ideology is linked to economic rationality, and political idealism is surpassed by economic pragmaticism.
However, after the DPP ruling, it also declared respect for the basis of the previous 23 agreements. It is hoped that the continuous operation of ECFA will not be influenced by the political hostility of cross -strait authorities.
Furthermore, interrupting ECFA will block Taiwan's economic growth and reduce Taiwan's competitiveness.According to the Oxford Institute of Economic Research, the coronary virus reported on the Asia -Pacific economic impact report, whether the ECFA cross -strait can continue and the impact of the new crown pneumonia in Taiwan.If ECFA has not been extended, the Taiwan economy will be in a very crisis.Due to the epidemic, the urban effect is only reduced by 0.6%on the economic growth of Taiwan.The economic performance of Taiwan in the second half of the year is based on whether the ECFA can continue. If the ECFA can continue, it is predicted that Taiwan's economic growth will usher in a new high in nearly six years in 2021, reaching 3.6%.
Finally, interrupting the ECFA, the cross -strait industrial chain cannot immediately be in line to the Xinnan -direction country.If the mainland interrupts ECFA, the potential will have a fierce impact on Taiwan SMEs. There are 539 ECFA earlier lists, including only 18 agricultural products, and the rest are industry -related raw materials and components.Losting zero -tariff reduction and exemption benefits will increase by about 7%to 8%of tariffs. Although large enterprises may have the ability to resist risks, for SMEs, the competitive advantage will be reduced due to huge cost pressure.
(The author is assistant professor at the Department of Public Affairs of Fo Guang University)
