Since the crown disease has become a global epidemic, governments from various countries have continued to launch economic stimulus policies to save the weak economy.However, from the first battle of the financial tsunami in 2008, the effect of monetary policy is not only difficult to say, but also the results of the sharing economy of the whole people.During the post -crown disease period, in addition to the leaders of various countries and the central bank, in addition to preventing malignant shrinkage, the political and economic influence of deflation and abnormal wealth cannot be underestimated.
Beginning in late February, the global government and central banks have successively realized the seriousness of crown disease against the economy, and have launched unprecedented market rescue plans.For example, the People's Bank of China reduced the benchmark loan interest rate on February 20, and released 550 billion yuan to the market with a low deposit reserve rate on March 13;The interest rate of the current federal fund is 0 to 0.25 %, and then announced on the 23rd of the same month to announce the open quantitative loose and purchase enterprises and local bonds.The width scale will be canceled on the 26th to cancel the debt purchase limit of the euro zone countries.Japan, Britain, Canada, India, South Korea and other countries also have similar actions.Although the implementation rules and scale of monetary policies in various countries are different, the world will undoubtedly usher in a torrent of funds.
However, many traditional economists have a doubtful attitude towards monetary policy.On the one hand, most of the means of various monetary policy are used to adjust the supply of money in one country to drive the growth of total demand, so as to open up more employment positions and accelerate the economic operation rate; but at the same time, when the currency supply volumeThe increase in the growth of overall economic demand, inflation will follow.However, as Milton Friedman said, inflation is only an ubiquitous currency effect, so most supporters will agree that as long as the inflation rate remains appropriate, inflation can be eaten by the purchasing power of currency, not only can be offset economic growth.It will help stimulate the vigorous development of the economy.This is also the main goal of the central banks of various countries after the financial tsunami in 2008.
Limited real economy benefits
However, theory is also theory. From reality, monetary policy is very limited to boosting the overall role of the economy.Although Obama and then the then Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke have come up with quantitative easing to make up for the liquidity of the market to save a lot of financial companies that have trapped in financial difficulties due to excessive leverage, the general public is difficult to benefit.Because monetary policy is not a fiscal policy, it can directly affect wages and employment markets. Instead, the credit market will inject funds into the real economy. When credit demand is insufficient, excess funds will be parked in the asset market and become a tool for chasing asset value -added.This can also explain why the pace of recovery in the financial market after 2008 will go higher and faster than the employment market in the real economy. The United States spent about ten years to create more than 1 million jobs, but it has already been a job, but it has already been created.Crown disease was cleared.
Since this global epidemic has forced the central banks of many countries to launch the monetary policy that has not been seen before, the remaining problems will only usher in a stagnation or shrinking in the future.The former refers to the economic environment of Qualcomm's rise, high unemployment rate, and low growth, and the latter refers to consumers expect that the price of goods will decline with the economic backward, and then choose to delay consumption.However, when it is expected, the vicious circle of the poor fighting the poor will occur, and eventually enter the economic recession.
However, looking at the two major economies MDASH; MDASH; the past experience in the United States and the euro zone has widely implemented a wide range of experience. Although the employment market slowly recovered after the launch of the wide volume, the increase rate is only the United States barely meets the goals.The increase rate is more like an ECG of the dying patient.In other words, the monetary policy imposed after the outbreak of the crown disease is not only difficult to push up the ups and downs in the short term, but to form a stagnation situation.Effective.
Furthermore, the political risks brought by monetary policy may be more terrible than economic risks.Since 2008, many economists have pointed out that most of the economic growth in the post -financial tsunami period has fallen into the top of the social class, namely 1%V.S.99%of the weal's uneven theory.The gap between the extended rich and the poor will not only cause social movements such as Wall Street, but even the atmosphere inside the establishment will change. As Trump can rely on the inspirational to enter the White House with a priority of the United States, the United States can prioritize the White House's inspirational to enter the White House.story.Therefore, in addition to the funding chain of the financial rescue policy, it is also necessary to directly and benefit from the people, so as to prevent economic turmoil in order to prevent political turmoil will become a starting point for political reelection.
