01 Viewpoint
The European epidemic with Italy and Spain has gradually eased, but the virus expansion trend has not stopped, and Russia has become the forefront of a new round of big outbreak.Russia not only had more than 10,000 new diagnosis cases for four consecutive days, but also three medical staff suspected that due to work pressure, they jumped off the building.Coupled with the public fiscal crisis derived from oil prices, this period can be regarded as the most severe challenge in Putin's 20 years.
As of Thursday (7th), Russia has recorded a total of more than 160,000 new crown pneumonia. Although the number is still less than that of European countries, France, Germany and other European countries, the country has added a number of new cases for four consecutive days.Mikhail Mishustin and Minister of Culture Olga Lyubimova were all recruited.In addition, three doctors in the country committed suicide in a serial jump of the country within ten days, evoking the attention of the people's work pressure and environment for medical staff, which made the outside world worry that the Russian epidemic was getting out of control.
Double Strikes of Elasticity and Economic
Although as early as January 30, Russia has taken the lead in closing the border border with China to reduce the contact of transnational people, but in the end, it can only delay the period when the epidemic explosion.Russia's current cases are not only concentrated in Moscow and St. Petersburg, but also passed on to the Saha Republic of Siberia, the Habarovsk region in the east, and Moldosk in the north.Virus transmission on vast land, as well as sending medical staff and supplies.The reasons for the reversal of the epidemic are divergent. Some people blame this on the people's ignoring the authorities' outsourcing ban, and some people say that they are insufficient detection capacity, which leads to a large number of hidden cases lurking in the community, constituting a chain that is difficult to trace.In any case, the end result is the most severe governance crisis in Putin's twenty years.
Although local governments are trying to deal with epidemic diseases that sweeping global, the front of Morkos does not stop there.Excluding the burden of medical systems and economic pain caused by the new crown pneumonia, Putin also has to deal with the oil production capacity battle and constitutional referendum with Saudi Arabia.Governance after the expiration.
Economically, Russia is the worst recession in the Soviet era.According to economists, Sergei Guriev, etc., the country's economic shrinkage or up to 10 % this year is far more serious than the financial crisis broke out in 2008.At the same time, when the unemployment rate rises, the authorities have also increased unemployment benefits from the original 8,000 rubles to 12,000 rubles from early April.The gap is still doubt.
People ’s hope slowly falls
At the same time, Putin is promoting the constitutional amendment to continue its political career.According to the current constitution of the current Constitution, Putin had to abdicate in 2024 and must not seek re -election again.Two years of presidential term.However, as the epidemic turned sharply in April, the virus not only extended the large -scale military parade in commemorating the Su Russia to defeat the Nazi in World War II, but also for the same as the constitutional referendum that was originally scheduled to be held in April.
However, Putin, which was originally stable in the referendum, was also dragged down by the epidemic.According to the polls of Levada Center, after the new crown pneumonia is coming, Putin's people have slowly fell from 69%in February to 63%in March; and another poll even more than even more polls.It shows that Putin's support fell to 50%on April 17.Even though this is also better than the leaders of Hong Kong or European and American countries, compared with its trading, 50 % are not just qualified indicators, but also have never seen a nightmare.
After looking at Putin in 1999, even when the financial crisis broke out in 2008 and the international oil price fell, its support rate was 60 % of the low point from 2008 to 2011, and the high point was in 2014 at 201488%of Crimean, so only 50%of the support so far is the most severe challenge for 20 years.Although the self -epidemic began in February, Putin has maintained a distance with the makers and local officials of the epidemic prevention policy and the section of the festival. With the spread of the people's dissatisfaction, Putin's re -election has finally encountered the challenge.
