Wangbao Society Review
The new coronary pneumonia's epidemic has continued to impact the global economy, and governments of various countries have launched various stimulus policies.Take a closer look at its content. In addition to the loose and credit expansion of the currency surface, the tax subsidy and reduction of the fiscal surface, the expansion of public expenditure, and the transfer payment of individuals are even more important.According to Bloomberg statistics, the global fiscal stimulus policy on epidemics has reached more than $ 8 trillion or more, far exceeding the 2008 financial tsunami.The IMF survey also pointed out that as of April 8th, financial support, including Germany, Italy, Japan, Britain, the United States and other countries, accounted for more than two digits, and Germany and Italy even as high as 3 %.How to lift the economy and stay away from the recession is the most important governance goal in except for the prevention of the epidemic.
Compared with the radical market and bailout moves of various countries, mainland China is relatively conservative, and the scale is not as the scale (less than 5%of the GDP proportion), but there should be no less.Regardless of the rent and interest subsidies of individuals or enterprises, or credit guarantees for the renewal of enterprises, a series of response policies have already been launched.It is worth mentioning that due to the excellent performance of the epidemic prevention and control compared to European and American countries, the progress of the resumption of work in mainland China has significantly exceeded market expectations. Beijing will have more surplus to stimulate consumption and investment, rather than simply sprinkle money.
Recently, the mainland government has announced the major actions that in order to respond to the impact of the epidemic on the economy, a series of investment project plans will be launched next.Among them, the construction of new infrastructure construction based on 5G base stations, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, big data center, intercity high -speed railway and rail transit, UHV transmission, and new energy vehicle charging piles (referred to as new infrastructure)It will be the core of the entire investment project.According to Lu media reports, since the central government issued this policy, 25 local governments have proposed relevant investment plans, with a total amount of nearly 50 trillion yuan, which is about half of the 1 year of the mainland.The large handwriting makes people feel that the mainland wants to copy the model of the successful driving economic growth and save the economic trend of continuous decline.
The direction of the mainland is correct, and the world is still under the threat of the new coronary virus. In the face of the demand for external terminals, the demand of the outside world has shrunk strongly. If you want to maintain economic growth momentum, you still have to consume and invest through domestic demand.However, consumption mainly depends on the recovery of market confidence. It will have time backward problems, and it is difficult to improve immediately in the short term through policies.However, the government's investment expenditure is not the same. The problem of backwardness is relatively small, so it can make a substantial contribution to the economy immediately.This is also advocated by the past Kainz school. When the market fails, it is necessary for the government to do.In other words, the government must actively intervene and intervene in the problem of lack of effective demand for short -term.
Although some scholars strongly criticize the practice of smashing a lot of money to push new infrastructure, it is to draw cakes to hunger and drink thirst.Especially at the moment when the debt is high, large -scale government expenditures will increase the national financial burden, and at the same time crowd out private consumption and investment, which is not conducive to future economic growth.This statement seems to be reasonable, but in fact, it cannot be banned.The reason is simple. If there is no very well in a very period, it will only make the economic situation worse.Even if this will deteriorate the government's finances, it is also a bitter fruit that must be swallowed.What's more, sprinkling money to save the economy is the practice of the world, not unique to the mainland.
Furthermore, the new infrastructure is different from the traditional iron public base construction. In addition to maintaining the short -term economic momentum, the real intention behind it is to support the development of the high -tech industry in the mainland.status.As we all know, the confrontation between China and the United States has become a long -term structural issue in terms of trade, technology or finance.The outbreak of the new crown pneumonia has made the confrontation between China and the United States more sharp. In the future, conflicts and contradictions will become the main axis of Sino -US relations.Recently, the US Department of Commerce announced that it will implement new restrictions on the export of the mainland, asking US companies to sell some high -tech products to Chinese companies with military background without permission, which is an example.
The impact of the new crown epidemic on the mainland economy is far smaller than that of European and American countries, but it should not be complacent about this, or holding the mentality of optimistic about the drama.Because from the perspective of global economy and trade, this is not only good for the mainland, but also unrealistic.According to past experience, the global economic trend after major infectious diseases, whether it is V or U -type recovery, always return to the original growth track.Therefore, the most important thing to do in the mainland at this stage is not to sit at the sinking of others, but to seize the opportunity while taking care of themselves in Europe and the United States, speed up the pace of new infrastructure, and strengthen its own technological strength.After all, this not only helps to improve the short -term economic momentum, but also help the adjustment and upgrading of long -term economic and industrial structures. It can also seize a place in the future of global science and technology hegemony.
