United Daily News Agency
Crude oil has always been the favorite of speculators. After more than ten years ago, oil prices have been fired to a peak of $ 147. Now due to the raging epidemic, under the sealing of the city, economic activities have stopped, and the demand for crude oil has fallen sharply. In AprilOn the 21st, the U.S. Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) May Futures Oil price fell to a negative $ forty dollars, which means that unless you pay a barrel of 40 dollars to subsidize the money spent by the buyer's transportation store, no one will have five people at all.Crude oil due to the expiration of the month.
After more than a week of rebound fluctuations, countries have been preparing to unblock one after another, and the situation is still not optimistic.According to Goldman Sachs Group, within three weeks of the global oil market, it is faced with the limit of oil storage capacity, and global output needs to be discontinued by nearly 20 %.
However, it is not easy to reduce supply. First, international competition is not allowed.Last year, oil prices could be maintained at $ 60, but the largest two oil export countries each had ghosts: Saudi Arabia -led oil output countries hoped that Russia would jointly reduce production and maintain oil prices;The rock oil industry is expelled from the market. It is generally believed that oil prices are less than 40 US dollars, and shale oil mining is not available.
The two countries are not allowed to meet each other, racing to increase production, and the United States coordinated separately. Russia finally sold Trump's face. It also believed that oil prices had been low enough to make some shale oil companies bankrupt.It accounts for nearly 10 % global output.Unexpectedly, the market atmosphere was pessimistic. In less than May, the futures price collapsed.
Secondly, there is a sinking cost for the excavation of the oil well. It is difficult to open it like the faucet, and it will be closed. If the production is reduced, it is necessary to wait for this oil well to be used without oil.The problem is that when the oil price was still more than 50 yuan before, everyone invested in a nest, but now I can't put it away.
When Trump fell at zero yuan in futures oil prices, he announced that he would purchase 75 million barrels as a strategic reserve, but the global output of the world exceeded 15 million barrels of consumption.There is nowhere to go to such a large amount. All known storage places are filled. The refinery and oil storage centers are about to be fully loaded. The oil carrier carrier at sea is also used for oil.It's almost full.
For the general public, several phenomena reflected in oil prices are worth noting.One is to represent the phenomenon of economic atrophy of the economy: It stands to reason that the decline in oil prices is good for the aviation industry and the transportation industry, but this cannot encourage more consumption. Because the epidemic is raging, everyone cannot travel, and even because of the banning order, the vehicles on the road are significantly large.Decreased, demand is reduced, and the benefits of reduced costs have brought about reduced costs.
This also shows that the economic prospects are considered, and the doubts of currency tightening have risen. Even if the ban will be lifted in the future, everyone is worried that the epidemic will come back and dare not consume. It makes manufacturers more reluctant to produce, which will cause corporate employees to send unpaid leave and form a vicious circle.In other words, after the economic unblocking, it is not a V -type rebound, but a U -shaped, or even a long -term L.
The International Monetary Fund predicts that the total global economy will shrink by three%this year. This is the worst recession since the Great Depression of 1930. The 2009 financial crisis was only 07%.Must be noticed.
The second is that the United States has shrunk to isolation: During the two oil crisis of the 1970s, the United States was still global hegemon. It considers the stability of global oil prices and the safety of crude oil sources.Now that the United States relies on shale oil technology, the oil production has doubled in five years. Last year, it was even more popular in the world's oil -producing country. Crude oil can be self -sufficient. The United States can reduce the dependence of the outside world.It is dangerous to the world.
Although Trump's involvement in oil prices has also announced a strategic reserve, he is not only to save oil prices and energy companies, but also to save Wall Street stock markets and his re -election.
The third is that this is only a good news for global environmental protection: now uses less petrochemical fuel, and global pollution is reduced, but the downturn of oil prices is the result. The real cause is the epidemic.Crude oil consumption is reduced, and oil prices cannot be supported.
However, in the era of low oil prices, the development of sustainable energy will also slow down.The epidemic is just a pause to the earth. Although the ecology has local recovery, although the warmth slows down, it will not stay forever at this moment.
Several phenomena reflected in the global outbreak of ultra -low oil prices should be able to give us some inspiration: the rejuvenation of bailout cannot be slow, the United States is insufficient protection, and the sustainable energy sources cannot be slow.
