The epidemic is still spreading globally, but I believe everyone has felt its huge destructive power.The United Nations described that this crown disease is the most serious global crisis since World War II, and is worried that it may cause conflict in all over the world; the world bank described this epidemic situation as a global recession;The economic recession caused by the secondary epidemic will be more serious than the 2008 global financial crisis.
UN Secretary -General Gutres said the crisis was so serious because the epidemic threatened everyone in the world, and the economic impact caused by the epidemic would lead to decline, which may be incomparable in modern history.The world's top academic journals have recently issued a consecutive statement: The virus does not discriminate against, and all of us have risks.If this epidemic is regarded as a war, it is a war between the coronary virus and human confrontation; if this epidemic is regarded as a crisis, it is mainly reflected in the economic and social level of natural disasters directly causeDisaster.
Therefore, this epidemic is not the ultimate comprehensive pressure scene. It is testing the comprehensive strength of various countries, and at the same time, it provides many valuable lessons and thinking review spaces.The author has some ideas and opinions in the following aspects.
Medical System
In this war between humans and viruses, the medical systems of various countries played the role of the warfield system.Different from the usual personalized medical disease plan, coronary virus is a new opponent for humans. Before humans have no vaccine and special effects, there is no corresponding treatment plan.The epidemic, rational response strategy, and the most likely to get the effect is comprehensive means such as epidemic prevention and control and medical support and protection.
A high -efficiency and high -quality medical system must have the following two characteristics: First, the professional division of labor, including the first community clinic and health management, public health, epidemic prevention and control, disaster medical treatment, emergency emergency, outpatient hospitalization, rehabilitation and nursing, Public medical infrastructure such as the end of the hospital; the second is to be able to quickly integrate, so as to be people -oriented, the point, line, and surface layout are reasonable, the system is sound, and the effective national medical security system is operated.Once the epidemic outbreaks, it will perform their own duties and deploy the nationwide in the country in a seamless and orderly manner.
During this anti -epidemic process, some countries have exposed insufficient medical services, or the oversupply of medical systems and insufficient medical reserves in emergency response.This is reflected in the public health medical system, and its medical industry chain has shortcomings such as shortcomings. On the other hand, it is more reflected in the comprehensive strength of a country's epidemic prevention and control, including the reasonable and rapid distribution of medical supplies in the country.The collection, processing and sharing of epidemic information, and multiple tests of the ability of the national emergency governance system.
Financial stability
Since the global financial crisis in 2008, in addition to traditional functions MDASH; MDASH; maintaining stability of prices, central banks of various countries have also started to face up and pay more attention to the topic of financial stability, that is, in any case, especially in a very important period, how to maintain the entire financial systemSafety and operation to ensure that the real economy is sustainable and efficient financial services.
Just as the global financial crisis in 2008 was triggered by improper management of the US real estate industry, this financial market shock was caused by the popularity of coronary virus diseases, and the cause was not in the financial sector.The epidemic is essentially a shock that causes the real economy.Few people will expect the serious consequences of the large -scale spread of the epidemic, which leads to the relevant authorities to block the city, cause serious damage to the enterprise, the operation of the operation, the exhaustion of funds, and the problem of corporate liquidity and credit, which eventually causes the financial market to fluctuate.
This means that to maintain financial stability, the central bank's challenge is getting bigger and more complicated.Due to the large source of systemic risks, it involves financial, economic, government finance, commodity energy prices, real estate prices, and even public health. Then, the source may also be domestic or foreign factor.Therefore, the central bank must use multiple perspectives to monitor, evaluate and analyze the source of various systemic risks, and the correlation and connection of the financial sector, and predict the possibility and seriousness of the financial market shock.Solution.
The solution and tools should be handled flexibly according to the situation, and it may also involve measures such as multi -approach of different government departments and institutions.This is obviously led by the central bank. Mastering monetary policy adjustment of monetary supply and interest rates to cope with inflation to maintain price stability.
In short, maintaining financial stability will be an increasingly important issue in the future of the central banks of various countries, and it is likely to be an increasingly tricky issue. It is an important part of the financial strength of a country in the future.
Industrial value chain and supply chain
The coronary virus epidemic has led to the slowdown of manufacturing activities, which is mainly reflected in the shortage of components, labor interruptions, traffic interruptions, unable to be delivered to customers, and due to all the above factors, the total production capacity has not been fully utilized.This is likely to lead to the reorganization of global supply chains.
The United Nations Trade and Development Organization reported in early March this year that the impact of the 2019 coronary virus epidemic on global trade stated that in the past 20 years, China has become the largest exporter in the world, and an important part of the global production network and the global production network.EssenceChina has become the main supply of raw materials and components of cars, mobile phones, precision instruments, communication equipment, medical equipment, and other products, and its importance in the global economy has continued to rise.As of now, about 20%of the global manufacturing intermediate product trade comes from China.Any production interruption in China will affect regional value chains in Europe, the United States and East Asia.
In the future, the corporate strategy of a country must consider whether there is any reason to evacuate the large -scale supply chain in China. Considering the factors will involve whether it is easy to transfer knowledge and capital, and the infrastructure, labor, logistics and transportation lines where the supplier is locatedAnd the degree and predictability of local regulations.Even if the lesson of the current epidemic, should you consider the local medical system, and whether there are enough resources to cope with the outbreak?Or considering many levels of suppliers that depend on operating in many countries or regions?
In short, re -consider how to deploy the value chain and supply chain of new industries around the world or region, and increase its replacement and diversification, to strengthen the toughness of enterprise operations, which is almost a foregone conclusion.
National Strategic Materials Reserve
Strategic material reserve is an important way for the state to ensure supplies in the very period. The purpose is to cope with war and other accidents, and to ensure the normal operation of the national economy and national defense needs.Two World War further proved the importance of strategic material reserves.
Different from ordinary material reserves, strategic material reserve mainly focuses on emergencies related to national security, such as war, natural disasters, epidemic diseases, terrorist attacks, and play the function of storage pool.In view of the increasingly important role of strategic materials in the growth of national economic strength and modern defense construction, most countries around the world attach great importance to strategic material reserves.
IMF President Gorkoya recently called the crisis as the dark moment of humans she had seen in her life and the world economy that has never been seen since the establishment of the IMF.How much impact does the epidemic affect the world economy?How long is the time cycle?Because the epidemic has continued to spread in the world's countries, it is not possible to accurately estimate at present, but it is certain that a national strategic material reserve is more important when the global sealed city is locked in the world.In addition to results, it has also become a stable cockpit stone for a country's economy and society.
Mutual trust between the government and the people
This epidemic is a natural disaster, and the epidemic prevention and control is a systematic engineering involving all aspects.This is a battle between humans and viruses. Chinese President Xi Jinping said: Winning the people's war to prevent and control the people must rely on the people.Pioneer warrior, mutual trust is the basis for determining the cooperation between the two.
The trust relationship between the government and the people is the core of the social trust relationship.The strength of faith is related to the economic development of a country, which directly affects the cohesion of a country in the face of emergencies, and is the cornerstone of a government's social legitimacy.
The reason why China can achieve a staged victory is that in the beginning of the prevention and control work, the Chinese government fully demonstrated the pursuit of the people's life safety and health -oriented value, the path selection of the people, and the deep motivation of the people relying on the people's deep motivationEssenceBased on the sincerity of the government, the government starts with the most concerned realistic issues that the people are most concerned about from patients' treatment, supplies, re -production and production, and daily life security.Essence
Civil social responsibility and cohesion
The sense of social responsibility reflects that individual social individuals should perform the responsibilities and obligations of the country and society, or manifested as the ethical care and obligations of others;Society and countries, and when their own interests contradict the interests of the country, society, and others, they must focus on the interests of the country, society, and others.
Under the threat of the coronal virus, everyone may be in danger. For a country, this epidemic prevention and control work is also reflected in the cohesion and centripetal force of the people of one country, as well as a sense of civilized morality and social responsibility.Field test.
In the face of the epidemic, countries around the world have a back to retrograde, especially the medical staff who are on the front line of the epidemic. With a strong sense of morality and responsibility, they have paid the hard work and sacrifice that ordinary people can't reach, and some even presented even given upPassionate life.They gave up the sense of social responsibility reflected by self -interest for others' health, and were respected and admired by people.
After people recognize that the asymptomatic patients with coronary virus can also pass on the characteristics of people, a small mask is reflected in the case of uncertainty whether they are virus infection.It brings some inconvenience to itself.In addition, the prevention and control measures of governments in various governments will definitely bring a lot of inconvenience to the people's work and daily life, but it ultimately reflects that it is good at treating themselves while treating each other.
People, groups and groups, and people and society are not the collection of countless independent individuals, but a unimplified whole.Under the threat of coronal virus, everyone may be in danger, and anyone may become the next victim.The people must be a community to the greatest extent, and they must work together to launch a counterattack. The cohesion of the people is a powerful weapon to counterattack the virus.
(Dr. Bai Shizhen is a guest professor at the National University of Singapore, Dean of Li Bai Financial College, and former dean of the Singapore Financial Administration.P>
Considering how to deploy new industry value chains and supply chains globally or regional, increase its replacement and diversification to strengthen the toughness of corporate operations, which is almost a foregone conclusion.
