The overseas epidemic is compressing the development space of China's related industries from both the supply and demand.Based on this, this article observes the two dimensions of domestic industrial supply and demand on overseas markets, observing the opportunities and challenges facing various industries in China.Li Political Commissar, Chief Economist of Industrial Bank
With the expansion of China's economy to the outside world, China has become increasingly involved in the global value chain division of labor.Data show that as of 2019, China's imports accounted for 14.5%of GDP and exports accounted for 17.4%of GDP.
On the one hand, from the supply side, in the vertical professional division of labor systems, China's final product production and exports need to rely on global parts imports.Based on this, this article constructs the dependence indicators of parts and components exported by the final product to measure the industry's dependence on the overseas industry chain.The specific measurement method is: First, according to the UN Comtrade's HS4 -point product inlet and export data, the intermediate and final products are separated; then, the ratio of the total value of the intermediate product import of the industry to the total export value of the final product is calculated.The higher the value, the higher the dependence of the production and export of the industry on the overseas middle and upstream industry chain.
High -dependence on imports in the raw material industry
The calculation results show that the import of intermediate products accounts for the manufacturing industry with coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel with the export of the final product more than 100%., The import of products in this industry accounts for 517.6%of its final product export value; the manufacturing of radio, television and communications equipment and devices, which account for 120.7%of the total export value of the final product;Intermediate imports in this industry account for 111.5%of the total export value of the final product.
It is not difficult to understand that the two major industries of coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel manufacturing and agriculture, hunting and forestry are intensive industries of raw materials. Its main imports of raw materials such as coal, crude oil, soybeans and other raw materials, and after processingConsumption, thus its high import value is high and the total export value is low, which jointly determines the high value of the total export value of intermediate products.The two major industries of radio, television and communication equipment and devices, cars, trailers, and semi -trailers. Due to the characteristics of high unit price and high value -added, components have a higher proportion of intermediate products accounting for the total value of the final product export.
In addition, the manufacture of food and beverages, the manufacturing of chemicals and chemical products, and the manufacturing of unsocisfactory power machinery and device manufacturing, in which the imports of product imports account for more than 30%of the total export value of the final product.Relatively speaking, the proportion of medical devices, precision instruments and optical instruments, and clocks in the manufacturing intermediate products accounted for 0.2%of the total export value of the final product, and the proportion of export value of other non -metallic mineral products in the manufacturing intermediate product imports is only 0.5%.Other industries such as textile manufacturing, manufacturing of metal products, and manufacturing of furniture.Other transportation equipment manufacturing intermediate products account for less than 10%.
On the other hand, from the perspective of demand, Chinese manufacturing production activities at the same time serve both domestic and foreign markets.Under the impact of the epidemic, the shrinking overseas market has a serious impact on the industry that highly serves overseas markets.
In this article, based on the 2017 National Input and output forms issued by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total export value of each industry accounted for the proportion of total output and measured its dependence on overseas markets.Data show that the total value of the total output of offices, accounting and computers accounted for 52.8%, and the foreign demand market dependence ranked first; then in order to make furniture manufacturing and unscolkurned manufacturing, the industry's exports are total total exports.The value of total output is 36.0%; the total outlets of radio, television and communication equipment and devices account for 27.3%; the total value of the manufacturing export exports of medical devices, precision instruments and optical instruments, and clocks accounts for the total output of the industry.It was 26.3%, and the total output of the manufacturing export of textiles accounted for 24.5%.
From the sides of the comprehensive supply and demand: First of all, according to the data distribution characteristics, the number of segments is lower than 0.5 definition low supply and low demand shock, that is, the proportion of the intermediate product imports accountsThe proportion of total export value to the total output value is less than or equal to 7.5%is the impact of low demand.At the same time, industries that are in high supply and high demand impact are the manufacture of radio, television and communication equipment and devices, the manufacture of unsatisfactory power machinery and installations, and the manufacture of non -alternative machinery and equipment;There are main industries with demand impact include offices, accounting and computer manufacturing, furniture manufacturing; unsteady manufacturing, manufacturing of medical devices, precision instruments and optical instruments, clocks, textile manufacturing, manufacturing of rubber and plastic products, wood, wood, and wood and plastic productsThe manufacturing of wood products and cork products, except for furniture; manufacturing of straw -editing items and weaving materials, the manufacturing of other transportation equipment, the manufacturing of metal products, except for machinery and equipment;The manufacture of paper products, the supply of electricity, gas and water, the manufacturing of chemicals and chemical products, the manufacturing of food and beverages, the manufacturing of cars, trailers and semi -trailers;The manufacture of other non -metallic mineral products and the manufacturing of basic metals.
Mainland chip welcoming share opportunities
The epidemic spreads overseas from squeezing the development of related industries in China from both ends of supply and demand, forming different challenges and opportunities for different industries.Specifically:
First of all, from the perspective of high -reliance on overseas supplies, there are mainly the manufacturing of radio, television and communication equipment and devices, manufacturing of cars, trailers and semi -trailers, and unsteady power machinery and installation manufacturing.For industries that depend on the supply of overseas industrial chains, the epidemic spreads or drives them to seek import substitution.The import channels are blocked and domestic market demand is the two major factors that constitute an import substitution. The obstruction of imported channels caused by the current epidemic has created one of the conditions for import substitutions, and further from the domestic market scale:
First, take the semiconductor chip as an example. At present, the latest data shows that in 2019, the import amount of Chinese chips was as high as 300 billion US dollars, accounting for about 10.8%of all China's total imports.From the perspective of domestic sales, in 2018, the sales of semiconductor chips in China reached 158.4 billion US dollars, accounting for about 33.1%of the global total consumption value, which is the world's largest chip consumer market.According to the first report of the First Finance and Economics on April 7, as the core component of 5G mobile phones, most of the RF chip markets have been occupied by several companies in the United States and Japan. Recently, due to the upgrade of the epidemic, the risk of production of these manufacturers has been increased.5G mobile phones will be concentrated on the market, which brings market substitution opportunities to domestic chip companies.
Second, take the automotive industry as an example. As one of the most global industries, the automotive industry is the industry with the largest amount of trade in the world.Data show that in 2018, the global vehicle export value was 9800 billion US dollars, accounting for 5.1%of the total exports of all goods in the world, and the scale was far exceeding the oil and body circuit.Mobile phones and computers and other commodities.From the perspective of the consumption scale of China's domestic market, China's auto sales have maintained the world's first in the world for ten consecutive years since 2009, and currently accounting for nearly 30%of global auto sales.
Secondly, from the perspective of high -dependence on overseas demand, there are mainly textiles, medical devices, offices, accounting and computer manufacturing, furniture manufacturing, and unspeakable manufacturing industries.Considering that the epidemic has increased the demand for global medical devices, the affected medical device is less affected, but labor -intensive industries such as textiles and furniture may be trapped due to the atrophy of foreign demand.
Finally, from the perspective of production and demand in domestic industries, there are mainly other non -metal mineral products manufacturing, manufacturing of metal products, except for machinery and equipment, and fisheries.The manufacturing and metal products manufacturing of other non -metal mineral products are mainly related to the demand for fixed asset investment.In order to hedge the economic downturn and unemployment pressure, a positive fiscal policy or the main force of investing in infrastructure or becoming a pushing demand will drive the demand for other non -metal products manufacturing and metal products manufacturing.
