The 2019 coronary virus epidemic has flooded into a global epidemic, which is a world -class and historical disaster.Although the disaster is far from over, we should think about the future: Can this global epidemic promote human reflection and progress and improve global governance?My clear prediction is: No.

Looking back at history, people seem to be clear; in the face of the future, they are at a loss.This major epidemic reflects many major issues of global governance, and the good person hoped to be a good person who believed that the epidemic could promote human reflection and progress.However, good intentions may not be achieved.In human history, the tragedy of repeating the same mistakes is far more comedy.

The basic idea of this discussion is: If an event does not have any necessary conditions, the incident cannot occur.In other words, if an event must be demonstrated, it is necessary to prove the sufficient conditions of it; if an event is not possible, you only need to deny that it is necessary.For the crown disease epidemic, because the current international pattern does not have the necessary conditions for human reflection and progress, mdash; mdash; execution forces, it cannot make human reflection and progress.

However, this is not to say that humans will no longer reflect and make progress, but to say that new reflection and progress of human beings cannot take the crown disease epidemic as an opportunity or incentive.It is also necessary to show that this article is only a possible impact of the crown disease epidemic, and does not hold a specific position.

Conditions for reflection and progress

There are at least two conditions for reflection and progress: ideological driving and execution forces.Executive force means that reflection and progress need to be realized.The difference is that at the social level, the implementation force required for progress is more powerful, and it is usually organizational forces.

It is not difficult to meet the first condition to meet the crown disease, because the ideological resources that humans can use are sufficient.Global governance is first of all risk control, followed by welfare sharing.Regarding the two, both ancient and modern China and foreign countries have many positive ideas.An ancient world of the world in China can be used as ideological resources.For example, the League of League requires the princesses without leaving rape, no leaving, disaster relief, and disaster (meaning not to protect the sinners, do not keep bad people, relieve disaster, and stabilize). This is a risk -controlled control;Lisa (meaning not to hoard food, do not monopolize benefits), this is welfare sharing (left Chuan Middot; Xianggong eleven years).Zuo Chuan records many international behaviors between vassal states.

In Christianity, the Bible believes that God's people should help each other, which transcends national borders.Kant's permanent peace theory proposes to establish world countries to mediate disputes.Modern international mutual aid ideas are richer.Therefore, there is no shortage of international mutual assistance in China and the West.

However, in certain periods, these ideas may not be transformed into public opinion.Because ideas are diverse, some ideas advocate international mutual assistance, and some advocate that the country's prosperity is a picture, but there may be only one reality choice.What kind of thought decides to adopt is the national will, including national goals, means, etc., that is, the execution force mentioned in this article.

Kindness will not be implemented, and it is usually not thought, but the execution force.Lack of execution forces, ideas cannot be transformed into large -scale and strong public opinion.Even if a few people call, the idea is weak.The execution force is not only a catalyst that transforms ideas into public opinion, but also a promoter to promote progress.Therefore, the crown disease cannot promote human reflection and progress. The key is to lack the second condition MDASH; mdash; execution forces.

History of Capital

To enable crown diseases to promote human reflection and progress, more generally, to achieve progress on major international issues, and where does the execution force come from?Great country collaboration.

A bird's -eye view of history can be concluded that the collaboration of large powers is a necessary condition for human reflection and progress.To be more accurate, the cooperation of the largest and second largest countries is a necessary condition for international progress.In the absence of major differences between the boss (the first country) and the second child (the second largest country), the smaller the difference between the strength of the two, and the less the boss is, the less likely the bossEssenceThis principle is also suitable for general organizational relationships.

You can first look at the generation of the International Alliance (League of Nations (referred to as the National Alliance) and United National.After the World War I, regardless of victory or defeat, countries were severely damaged.It is proposed to establish the National Alliance's execution power as the British and the United States as the victor. The two are the first and second powers (at that time, the United States had exceeded the United Kingdom, but it has not completely replaced the British hegemony).In addition, big countries such as France and Russia are also the victors.

Although the United States eventually caused Congress to reject the motion of joining the Kuomintarian Federation due to domestic isolation, but without the support of the United States, the National False would not be generated.Therefore, the establishment of the National Alliance is the result of the collaboration between the great power, especially the collaboration between the boss and the second child.The United States and the Soviet Union did not join the National Alliance, resulting in the weak execution of the National Alliance.This exactly shows that there is no support for large or strong people, and it is difficult for the international community or general organizations to solve major problems.

In the late World War II, the claim of the establishment of the United Nations was proposed by the U.S. President Roosevelt.During the preparation of the United Nations, the United States and Britain had proposed that the principles of decision -making that still obeyed the majority of the majority, but Stalin proposed that a permanent member of the country must have a vote veto, otherwise it will not be added.If the great Soviet country does not join, the subsequent Huoyo countries will not be added, and the coverage and execution of the United Nations will be greatly weakened.In the end, the United States waited for concessions.

The war can be launched by unilateral, and the peace must be achieved.The higher the international community's anarchy, the more international collaboration is achieved by any party and the second middle school.In domestic society, although as long as the boss agrees to form decisions, this is not an anti -examples analyzed above, because domestic society is different from the international community.There are higher organizations or leaders.

If a higher organization or leader supports the boss, even if the second child opposes, the decision can be formed.In fact, this is the deformation or special situation of the collaboration between the boss's second.The second becomes the third child.Therefore, this decision is still the collaboration between the actual boss and the second child.

Look at it further.During the Spring and Autumn Period of China, the war was frequent.Zuo Chuan recorded 745 wars, with an average of 2.9 times a year.Despite 719 BC, the doctor of the Lu Guo pointed out: Husband and soldiers, still fire, and Ephesians, will also be self -immolation (Zuo Chuan MIDDOT; Ru Yin Gong for four years), but the war has been continuously due to the support of the great power.It was not until 656 BC that the two most powerful countries in Qi and Chu reached the League of Zhao Ling, achieving peace for a period of time (Zuo Chuan Middot; Four years of Gong Gong).After Qi Yonggong's death, the Chu country lacked his opponents and began to invade China (Central Plains vassal states), so he entered the period of Jinchu.

Although the battle of the city established the dominant status of the Jin Dynasty, after the death of Jin Wengong, Jin and Chu conducted 80 years of tug -of -hegemony.During the period, countries, including Jin and Chu, recognized the harm of war and held two soldiers.However, because the boss and the second child did not comply with the agreement, the first soldiers in the first soldiers actually failed (Zuo Chuan Middot; Eleven years of Chenggong).

During the bloom of the Second Soldiers Conference, the boss (Jin State) and the second child (Chu State) both agreed to the soldiers. Although Qi Guo (third or fourth) wanted to be stalk from it, it was persuaded by domestic officials (Zuo ChuanMiddot; Xianggong 27 years).Because the boss and the second child compared the agreement, the second soldiers' conference resolved the conflict.Until the end of the spring and autumn, there was almost no war between the two major groups of Jin and Chu (see the conflict between clumsy and coordinating MDASH; MDASH; centered on the Spring and Autumn War Alliance).The failure of the first soldiers and the second success of the Soldiers Conference explained from the perspective of anti -and positive aspects that only the cooperation of large powers can achieve international cooperation.

It is impossible for humans to learn lessons from the epidemic

It can be understood from the investigation of the above theory and history, why it is impossible for humans to reflect and progress in crown disease, because it should beThe boss (United States) and the second child (China) of this world have a serious division, which will even expand.

First, on the one hand, the United States has regarded China as the challenger of its hegemony; on the other hand, China is pursuing the rise.Although China has always declared peaceful rise, the United States does not believe it, so it has increased its containment of China, such as trade war and the use of Taiwan issues to cause friction.To promote international cooperation, the role of the first power is the most important.If the second child disagrees, the agreement will not be reached; if the boss disagrees, the agreement cannot be reached.According to the preparation of China's containment in the United States in recent years, the Sino -US conflict will only intensify in the visible future.This is the basic trend of Sino -US relations.The pattern of the second and second -year -old relationship will seriously damage international collaboration.

Second, the basic trend of Sino -US relations has led the responsibility of the two countries to the crown disease epidemic.Both sides are shirk responsibility, emphasize their advantages, and dilute their shortcomings; emphasize the shortcomings of the other party and dilute the advantages of each other.Trump blatantly calls the coronal virus as a Chinese virus.China believes that the US statement is irresponsible and pointed out that China has timely notified the U.S. on the US, and the outbreak of the United States is because the United States does not cherish and make full use of China's epidemic prevention and immune time to the United States.

Third, the two sides not only shirk responsibility, but also use the epidemic as a tool to stimulate domestic nationalism and promote hostility to each other.For example, Trump's attack on China is definitely not conducive to the development and mutual cooperation between the relationship between the two countries, and it will also worsen the perception of the American people in China.

One actor will try to use all possible factors to serve its main goals, and so is the country.When division or conflict becomes the tone of international relations, the incidental incident will only be used to exacerbate division or conflict.When the United States regards China as a challenger, it will use all possible factors to curb China.

Indeed, the crown disease epidemic has brought great trouble to the United States and Americans, causing huge losses, but who should blame this and the United States lacks self -review.Trump has repeatedly said that the American epidemic has been okay. The United States is safe and does not actively take measures.Until the outbreak, Trump did not reflect, but repeatedly shook the pot to China, boasted that he was wise and great.This approach obviously not only does not promote Sino -US cooperation, but will increase the gap between China and the United States.

Crown disease will only exacerbate world division

On April 3, 2020, former US Secretary of State Kissinger wrote on the Wall Street Journal that the crown disease epidemic will always change world order, and call on the principles of free world order and strive to cure world economic trauma.To achieve these appeals, it is necessary to cooperate with great powers, but at present, it is difficult to achieve.Although the global epidemic has not yet ended, it is foreseeable that the popularity of crown diseases not only cannot promote human reflection and progress, but will increase world division, especially the division of great powers; more than, the more serious the epidemic, the more severe the division.

Humans do not reflect and progress, but they usually experience painful lessons.Even the National Alliance, which was established based on the terrible battle of World War I, failed to prevent more painful World War II.Since the Second World War, the world's overall Chengping has not experienced three generations of disaster, especially the Great War. Many people have forgotten the tragic world division and war.From the folk to the official, the thought of fighting and good fighting is growing.Therefore, it is necessary to reflect and improve human beings again, unless there are outstanding leaders, elite groups, and rational people, they must pay a huge price.

Crisis does not necessarily make the country or human beings progress, but often move backwards.In the face of crisis, some rulers often make mistakes, especially the reason to attribute the reason to the outside, to promote and encourage them (as for their true thoughts, it is unknown) to facilitate their centralized and autocracy.For example, Germany's centralized and military -oriented disadvantages have become the main countries that trigger the World War I.After the First World War, Germany faced the defeat of the defeat and did not become a free and open -rule democratic country, but instead went to fascism.There are many examples such as this.Therefore, it may not be necessary to prosper the state, let alone humans.

The blindness of the world's cognition is inexplicable and incompetent, which is the tragedy of human beings. This is generally the same as before modern history.But the greatest tragedy of human beings is that it is generally known to the world, and even knowing that the world is going to the abyss, but it is still confusing and incomparable.

The author is Sichuan University in China

Professor of the School of International Relations

Although it is still in the epidemic, it is foreseeable that the popularity of crown diseases will not only promote human reflection and progress, but will increase world division, especially the division of great powers; more, the more serious the epidemic, the more severe the division.