Wangbao Society Review
New coronary pneumonia's epidemic has been caught in more than one hundred countries. The global prosperity is frozen and the prospects are unknown.IMF's latest economic outlook report pointed out that short-term prosperity has almost no V-type reversal. In 2020, the global economic growth rate will decline to -3%. It is 30 times that of 0.1%during the financial tsunami in 2008. It is also the world since the past century.In the most serious economic recession, the United States, the euro area and Japan will be the three major severe areas, with a decline of 5.9%, 7.5%and 5.2%, respectively. Although mainland China can still maintain positive growth, it will quickly shrink from 6.1%to 1.2%, Less than 5%, shows that the epidemic is inconsistently harming each other's economies.
Facing the severe economic situation, the outside world has begun to explore. In the past 10 years, mainland enterprises and families have expanded their credit and accumulated debts with the support of the state. With the large number of companies closed and unemployed by the enterprise, a wave of debt defaults may be further caused by further triggeringComprehensive systemic risk.According to the statistics of international settlement banks, as of the third quarter of 2019, the proportion of non -financial sector companies and family debt in mainland China accounted for 150.4%and 54.4%, respectively, while these two numbers were before the financial tsunami in 2008, but only 98.5%were only 98.5%.And 18.8%.In the past 10 years, the increase in the two is quite amazing.In particular, mainland family debt composition is mainly based on real estate loans, with a proportion of nearly 60 %.The real estate is closely related to the prosperity. Once the economy has shrunk rapidly, the housing market bubbles over the past 10 years may be pierced by this. In addition to intensifying the pressure of family debt repayment, it will also increase the risk of bank system default.It is no wonder that the outside world will worry that when the prosperity falls seriously, these huge debts may be the last straw that crushes the mainland economy.
Worried that it can't be said that there is no reason, but if you consider 3 factors of the mainland's economic system, financing structure, and government response, there will be different images.Simply put, the issue of mainland debt does not only appear now, nor has it soared recently. In fact, it has been lasting for a long time.Since the debt crisis broke out in Greece in 2009, it has been reported in the world to worry about high debt in mainland China.However, 10 years have passed, and such concerns are still there, but the mainland still stands.The reason is the advantages of the economic system, so that the Beijing government can resolve possible debt risks through the power of the country through the power of the country, such as mandatory debt -to -equity, local debt replacement, and the guarantee of the People's Bank of China.It can't be done.
So, is the debt problem just holding it temporarily, will it erupt sooner or later?As mentioned earlier, mainland debt soaring is mainly due to corporate and family debt. The central government's debt accounts for 40%of GDP, and the proportion of foreign debt is extremely low (only 14.4%in 2018).EssenceEven in the past two years, the bond market has been circulating frequently, and the number and amount of cases have repeatedly reached a record high. However, compared with the entire corporate debt scale, the amount of breach of contract is almost equivalent to shaking the trees.The statistics of the Wan De Database pointed out that as of January 2020, the scale of mainland corporate bonds was about 24 trillion yuan, and the amount of corporate bonds in 2019 was 142.4 billion yuan, accounting for only 0.6%. In fact, it is difficult to form a chain effect.
It is worth mentioning that mainland debt structures are not the same as advanced European and American countries, and most of them are indirect financial debts formed through the banking system.In other words, the real creditors behind mainland debt are banks rather than enterprises or households themselves.Under such a structure, once the risk of breach of contract with the company (connected with the prosperity) or the household (and real estate) increases, it will be the banking system.The problem is that under the socialist market economy, the state is absolutely impossible for the state to take a situation in the banking system.Not to mention, since the promise of opening up in the WTO in 2006, almost all major commercial banks in the mainland have accumulated huge assets, and the capital adequacy rate has also been above a high standard.According to the British banker magazine rankings, the mainland's industry and commerce, construction, agriculture, and Bank of China have been in the top 4 for two consecutive years. In 2019, the total profit of the US bank is 4 times.This also means that the ability and bargaining of the financial system to deal with debt crises are very rich.
In the end, it may be the most important. The economic physique of the mainland is not the vulnerability of the outside world.In addition, in recent years, the adjustment of economic and industrial structure has been accelerated, so that the mainland has more capital to resist the risks brought by the decline in the external economy.From the perspective of the income circular flowchart, the data of the National Bureau of Statistics of China pointed out that in the past 10 years (2010-2019) consumption, investment and net exports have contributed to 59.2%, 42.3%, and -1.5%, respectively.The current economic growth momentum from the mainland depends entirely on domestic demand, not external demand.Under this premise, even if the external demand has shrunk strongly, it may not cause damage to the mainland economy, let alone collapse.
Even so, Beijing cannot care.The currency and fiscal policy that should be done and adopted must not be less.In particular, for small and medium -sized enterprises and disadvantaged measures and revitalization measures, we must also be launched boldly and must not be conservative.After all, the major international economic prediction agencies have been alert. This wave of global economic recession is comparable to the Great Depression of the 1930s, and neglect and neglect is the real crisis.
