The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced on April 17 that preliminary accounting was that the first quarter of the domestic GDP (GDP) was 2065.5.4 billion yuan (about new yuan of about 4153.6 billion yuan), which was calculated at comparable prices, a year -on -year decrease of 6.8%.This number surprised the Chinese, but it was unexpected.
Over the years, it has been used to the number of GDP growth. At first glance, it was really surprised to see a negative growth and a decrease of 6.8%.The quarterly growth rate of GDP has broken zero, which is the first negative growth in China since the announcement of GDP in 1992.
But this number is objective and fair, seeking truth from facts, and the feeling of being trapped in the epidemic, which is in line with the expectations of economists.The industry has previously expected that more than 5%of China's first quarter will decline.Therefore, the decline of 6.8%is within the expected range.
Affected by the epidemic and the Spring Festival factors, from late January to the end of February 2020, the Chinese economy is basically in a state of suspension of production and business. This is one of the reasons for the decline in economic growth.In addition, since March, the epidemic has spread in Europe and the United States and other countries, and China's foreign trade exports have been greatly restricted, which has a great impact on the overall economy.
In this situation, the first quarter of economic activities stopped, and only a few industries supported the logistical support of the front line of resistance and the basic life of the national house.In the first season, the added value of industries above the scale of China decreased by 8.4%year -on -year, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 19.0%year -on -year.The decline has seriously damaged China's first season of GDP growth.
However, we also have to see positive factor from -6.8%.First of all, it is very necessary and worthwhile at the cost of sacrificing GDP growth in exchange for resistance and fighting.
When the epidemic outbreaks, prevention and control is a top priority that overwhelms everything. The main battlefield of the epidemic is fully sealed in Wuhan. Many densely labor -intensive enterprises have decisively stopped working.This is the correct implementation of the people -oriented development concept under the outbreak of the epidemic.In the world, people are the most precious resources.GDP can be reduced, and it can be replenished again. People are gone, and the glorious GDP is meaningless.
Secondly, there are potential economic development and healthy factors in negative growth.There are also decreases and increases in various industries, especially compared with March and January to February, the active growth of the national economy is increasing.For example, in the first season, the value added of industries above designated size decreased by 8.4%year -on -year.Among them, the added value of industries above the scale in March decreased by 1.1%year -on -year, a narrowing of 12.4 percentage points from January to February; 32.13%month -on -month, and the scale of industrial output was close to the same period last year.
This is due to the increasing efforts to resume production in March.In the first season, although the overall value added of the tertiary industry declined year -on -year, the value -added of information transmission, software and information technology services in the financial industry increased by 13.2%and 6.0%, respectively.This is the contribution of new kinetic energy to the national economy.In addition, the decline in important data such as the total retail sales of social consumer goods and the national fixed asset investment has narrowed significantly compared with January to February.These are healthy and upward performance.
Again, we must see that under such an epidemic, 1.4 billion people with a population of 1.4 billion people, hydropower, constant heating, continuous communication, continuous supply of materials, and social order are not chaotic.The full guarantee is the ultimate state of the toughness of the Chinese economy.
The production of important industries related to the country and the people's livelihood is stable, the supply channels, especially the smooth logistics, the delivery of goods services continuously and orderly, the fluidity of funds is smooth, and the performance rate of economic contracts is still guaranteed in a very period.
The epidemic tested the emergency capacity of China's economy. Some companies transferred from the usual to wartime state. They could go to a mask and disinfection production line in a short time to ensure the supply of anti -epidemic material.Some Internet companies fulfill their social responsibilities at critical moments, and provide free reading and free blockbusters for consumers of home households.
All in all, -6.8%is a number of truth-seeking, reflecting the impact of the epidemic on the operation of the national economy. The state must vigorously support enterprises at the policy level.Counter -cyclical operation.
Looking forward, in April, if the epidemic in China is not large, international trade protectionism can be curbed to some extent, and the Chinese government has issued moderate and effective economic policies, the second quarter of GDP will be significantly better than the first quarter.Then, in the first half of the year, the good epidemic level was able to make a good way for the high -quality development in the second half of the year.
(The author is a columnist in the financial media)
