Zhu Ming: Crown disease epidemic and world crisis

Zhu Ming

The epidemic of coronary virus in 2019 has been out of control in Europe and will spread rapidly around the world.This epidemic caused not only the economic crisis, but the Great Depression of the World Economy, and even the chaos in the world.Because the world economy has entered the Great Depression, it has long been possessed that the crown disease epidemic is just the external force of the world's economic bone card, and unfortunately has become an iconic incident of the world economy towards the Great Depression.

The West has entered a state of recession: the division of the rich and the poor in the United States has expanded violently and has returned to the level before World War II; the potential of economic growth in Europe, America and Japan has basically exhausted, and the return is even lower than the long -term natural growth rate.The debt has reached the limit, and the iconic incident is a real estate crisis.

Due to the depletion of the above -mentioned profits, the European, American, and Japanese economies were extremely dependent on the fiscal deficit, which led to a sharp rise in government debt after 2008.It can be said that the economic development of the European and American and Japanese economies has rely on the fiscal deficit, that is, the rise in government debt.Once the government debt outbreak crisis, all sources of profit will be exhausted, and the economy of the entire country will be completely paralyzed.

The collapse of the US stock market is also determined by its long -term overdraft and inner operating mechanism.After the Federal Reserve rare, emergency, and sharp interest rate cuts on March 15, the US stock index futures plummeted by more than 4%.Analysts believe that investors are concerned that the UN emergency measures still cannot hedge the impact of the epidemic on the US economy.

Since the international financial crisis in 2008, 12 years have passed. The United States and Europe have mainly relied on quantitative easing and ultra -low interest rates, leading to rising asset price bubbles, rising debt leverage, widening of residents' wealth gaps, social tearing, political perspectives, and trade protectionism.This is not sustainable.

The United States is facing four major crises: stock market bubble, debt leverage, financial institution risks, and social tear.Europe, Asia, etc. are also facing the same problems.The plunge of asset prices may cause market panic, liquidity exhaustion, bankruptcy of financial institutions, and decline in the balance sheet; if it is not proper, the turbulence of the capital market may cause the economic and financial crisis.From the perspective of the financial cycle, this is a total liquidation, and it will come sooner or later.

However, Western economics generally does not recognize that its economic operation mechanism has fatal defects.For example, the collapse of the stock market in 1929 was attributed to the currency tightening policy; the 2008 financial crisis attributed the financial crisis to financial engineering (then the Fed chairman Bernanke said).Just as people analyze the decline of various dynasties in China, they can always find different reasons.

Therefore, the collapse of the US stock market will not be considered its own problem, and it will find some reasons. The crown disease epidemic is a good reason.The oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia will also become an additional reason, and the price war can also be attributed to the decline in the demand for oil.

The normal plot, the fuse of the world economy's decline, should be the collapse of the US stock market, just like the Great Depression in the 1930s.But now it has become an epidemic caused by the collapse of the US stock market, grabbing the aura of the protagonist, and becoming an iconic event for the turning point of the world.

Important features of coronal virus: long latent period, even asymptomatic lurking; strong infectious power (asymptomatic incubation period can also be contagious); neo -virus, no antibodies all humans.The most important thing is that even if the virus is afraid of high temperature weather (the situation of Singapore and Australia indicates not necessarily), the virus is difficult to disappear naturally due to global liquidity and temperature difference between the north and south hemispheres.

This means that everyone may be infected (expert predictions are two -thirds of the world) until most people have antibodies.Therefore, it is difficult to prevent and control before the emergence of vaccines and special effects, and it is likely to have a long -lasting war.The main prevention models are: Chinese -style comprehensive isolation; Singapore -style key collection, tracking and close contact with close contact.

If countries cannot effectively learn from the experience that China has paid high costs, that is, the cognition of virus and epidemic conditions and the screening of treatment plans, the world will pay a heavy price.

Unfortunately, this tragedy has occurred in some countries and will happen in more countries.Italian infection was forced to implement national isolation, but it could not be as strict as China. It quickly led to the entire European sinking under the Schengen Agreement and spread from Europe to all parts of the world.

Due to the limited detection capacity, the United Kingdom, Sweden and other countries have begun to abandon large -area testing.Patients with mild symptoms are recommended at home and rely on autoimmune recovery.Britain even requires mild patients not to call the hospital's inquiry.The third world countries such as India and Egypt have no corresponding detection and treatment capabilities.According to Wuhan experience, it is clear that a world -world tragedy is about to happen.

The European, American -Japanese economy itself has the conditions to form a major decline, and there are many countries with relatively small economic volumes that have entered a state of crisis and turbulence.The world economy eventually moves towards the Great Depression, and is determined by the internal operation mechanism of the economy. The rest is only time and trigger the problem.

This year, the world economy will face multiple impacts: if it is to deal with the spread of the epidemic, it must be completely isolated. The production and consumption cannot operate normally, and the income of individuals, enterprises and governments has declined.If countries are isolated for their own security, they will have a significant impact on international trade and investment (international trade declines by 65%in the 1930s and 10%in 2009); the stock market collapsed, and wealth shrinking caused corporate bankruptcy and consumption; commodity commodities; commoditiesThe plunge in prices has led to a decline in revenue from resource export countries and even caused social turmoil; at the same time, the demand for other countries will also decrease accordingly.

The triple impact will cause a greater chain response once a family, enterprise and government debt crisis, which will cause economic collapse of the entire country.To put it simply, for many countries, it is equivalent to the state of the elderly, and the three stuffy stuffy stuffy is unimaginable.

The biggest difference between this crisis and the 2008 crisis is that there were some resources that saved the crisis, such as fiscal and monetary policies, and now all resources such as monetary tools are about to be exhausted.After the economic collapse triggers social turmoil, it will enter the vicious circle of social turmoil and economic destruction, leading to the disintegration and world reorganization of the entire country.

The author is a researcher at the China Chahar Society