Yi Ruimin: If the epidemic ends today ...

If the epidemic ended MDASH today; mdash; this topic must be a pseudo -proposition, because Chinese and foreign experts agreed that the 2019 coronary virus disease epidemic is likely to last for one to two years.Talk now?Dreaming!

But when the epidemic is always over, when this day is coming, Hong Kong people will be happy to get rid of the mask like 17 years ago?Still suffering from economic difficulties, and everyone worked hard to make a living?

To be sure, Hong Kong will be unrestrained again.The anti -repair routine storm began in June last year, which lasted for more than half a year until the epidemic was raging, and the talents in black decreased the 721831 such as 721831 every month.However, Hong Kong's political issues have not been resolved, and more storms will happen.

Dai Yaoting, one of the three scholars of the Hong Kong University of Hong Kong, recently wrote a prophecy in newspapers that this century's epidemic will accelerate the changes in the global pattern. Of course, the small pattern of Hong Kong cannot avoid the impact of the large pattern and the changes in the central pattern.

He predicts that the world of democracy and freedom will strengthen the resistance of the CCP's autocratic regime, so the opposition between the CCP and the democratic freedom world will be more acute.This is the change of his so -called big pattern.

In fact, as the confirmed cases of crown diseases have risen, US -China relations are deteriorating sharply, and the declaration of diplomatic literature on both sides is endless; American companies are stepping up their external withdrawal to avoid the supply chain from being controlled by the mainland market.In addition, there are wrestling fields such as the World Health Organization and the strength of the South China Nations between China and the United States.

At the same time, the U.S. government has continuously pushed the responsibility of the epidemic to Beijing and mobilized allies to resist alienation.As a result, some people believe that the global pattern after the epidemic may really repeat the situation of the Cold War. The two superpowers compete for the scope of the forces and fierce wrestling, but the protagonist is replaced from the former US -Soviets to the United States and China today.

In terms of changes in the central pattern, Dai Yaoting predicted that the Chinese economy, which had already declined, and was severely damaged by the global economy's suspension.When the level of living fell sharply, the people of the mainland would account for accountability.Therefore, high -level political struggles will be more intense.

In the end, will the world's big pattern and the changes in the central pattern really staged like Professor Dai?I dare not agree completely.In fact, there are too many changes in international politics and mainland politics, and the interest relationship involved is intricate. Can experts and scholars predict accurately?

However, I agreed with the changes in the small pattern of Hong Kong in the final proposed.He believes that in the world's large pattern, Hong Kong has become a bridgehead for the democratic freedom world to compete with the Chinese Communist power.Starting from the 2019 counter -delivery of the CCP, the wave of anti -Chinese Communist Party in Hong Kong has never stopped.

He is convinced that the Hong Kong Legislative Council election in September this year can obtain important constitutional weapons as long as the camp is opposed to the next city to capture more than half of the seats.The Hong Kong Government regime.

Although Beijing has transferred troops early this year, and Luo Huining, who was former secretary of the provincial party committee of Qinghai and Shanxi, sent Hong Kong to be the director of the China United Nations Office to become the highest specification of the ministers.Can the systems win the election campaign of the Legislative Council?It's easy to talk about.

Although Beijing has replaced the leaders of the Hong Kong and Macau Office and the China United Nations Office, the basic policies and policies are actually unchanged. It is still politically stepping up control, accelerating the integration of economics, and realizing the central government's comprehensive governance of Hong Kong.

It is foreseeable that this set of policies and policies will only continue to cause many contradictions and rebounds.At the same time, Lin Zhengyue led the SAR government to resolve it. He relied on the law enforcement of police to barely maintain governance and constantly provoked the charges of so -called police violence.

After Shats in 2003, Hong Kong immediately set out a seventh parade, and the former head head Dong Jianhua was forced to step down on a reasons for foot pain.It is estimated that after the epidemic, history may be repeated.

The difference is that there are no distinctive confrontation between the two yellow and blue camps in Hong Kong at that time, and the Legislative Council election in September this year, even if the camp is opposed to winning, Beijing may not be exchanged for the resolution of people's grievances like that year, but it may be possible.Take greater suppression.

Just as Liang Meifen, an institutionalist of legal scholars, proposed that if the opposition successfully controlled the parliament and then forced it with the five major demands, Beijing would definitely shoot.She believes that Beijing can use the legislative power of the National People's Congress, which can completely abolish the Hong Kong Legislative Council, change the Basic Law, and set up a parliamentary parliament, just like the temporary Legislative Council in 1997.

The above are different analysis of the political prospects of Hong Kong after the epidemic. Obviously, Hong Kong's life is never good in the future.But in any case, I always look forward to the day of the epidemic.