The Japan and the International Olympic Committee reached a consensus. The 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games is postponed until next summer. This is the first extension of the Olympic history.
On the one hand, this will inevitably have a great impact on the Japanese economy, sports, politics, and diplomatic schedules. On the other hand, it must be seen that if you can use the extension time to prepare, achieve dual success in epidemic prevention and the Olympic Games, and to Japan and the world to come to Japan and the worldIt is a iconic event that turns crisis.
Control of the Olympic Extension of the Olympic Games
Of course, the Olympic extension of the Olympic Games has a great negative impact. The most direct is the organizer of the conference, the catering service industry of the aviation hotel, and athletes.Politically, the extensive prediction of the outside world has disrupted the prime minister Shinzo Abe's Dongfeng, which may take the Olympic Games to successfully take the election after the Olympic Games, and achieve a plan for smooth transfer of power.From a diplomatic perspective, the Olympic diplomatic schedule also has to re -arrange and adjust.In addition, Japanese society's enthusiasm and expectations of the Olympic Games have also been greatly impacted.
However, the author believes that this impact is temporary, and the key is the question of what to do in the next year.First of all, this time is an extension, not cancellation, which means that Tokyo can still make better preparations and make the Olympic Games better.Secondly, the Japanese economy has been affected by the friction between Sino -US trade and epidemic. It is not too much pressure to cancel the Olympic Games now, but it is not a Japanese family that faces these challenges.
On the one hand, Japan has begun to adopt a large -scale economic stimulus policy. From the perspective of the economic recovery of the Great East Japan East in 2011, the toughness of the Japanese economy itself is still strong;Copy the speed and effectiveness of the crisis, especially the cooperation between the two major economies of East Asia.If the two are combined, it is possible to achieve V -shaped recovery.
Third, Abe's initiative to discuss the post -telephone consultation with the International Olympic Committee, which is actually more appropriate.This decision is basically accepted by the court and the society, and there is no problem of impact on government trust.The major political decision of postponing the Olympic Games is very difficult to grasp. It will be criticized if it is early or late.
Although around March 20, the Japanese executives and the International Olympic Committee have always stated that they will be held in accordance with the original plan, but as Canada and Australia have said they will not send players to participate, coupled with the global spread of the epidemic, Japan believes that this summer is held this summer to hold it this summerThe Olympic Games is unrealistic.In the context of the overall changes in the atmosphere of internal and external public opinion, the decision of the extension should be the most rational choice that all parties can accept.
As for the impact on the Japanese election, the author believes that it is not negative, and there are roughly two possibilities.The first is to convert the original Olympic Dongfeng to the East Wind, and held a general election this summer.Japan is currently the best country in developed countries. If this result can be maintained and basically controlled this summer, this Dongfeng will not be as confident in the Olympic Games.
If Japan achieves victory in resistance this year and the Olympic Games is successful next year, the Liberal Democratic Party can take dual east winds.The second possibility is that the election will be held after the Olympic Games next summer.Of course, it is not ruled out that if the epidemic control is not smooth, the possibility of the Liberal Democratic Party requires the current cabinet to stay in office.However, no matter what kind of situation occurs, the biggest decisive factor is still the control of the domestic and global epidemic in Japan.
Social self -discipline plus national self -cleaning
From the perspective of the spread of the epidemic, so far, the number of confirmed cases in Japan is much lower than that of other developed countries.Of course, many comments believe that due to the absolute number of testing, Japan expressed doubts that the number of cases announced was only the tip of the iceberg.The absolute number of Japanese virus testing is indeed a fact, and according to Japan's medical capabilities, it can do a larger range of detection, so the possibility of the above is not unreasonable.
However, in turn, if you calmly analyze, if Japan has developed to a large -scale community diffusion in Europe and the United States, such as a large number of squeezing medical resources and severe patients like Italy appeared, it would definitely not be able to cover the fire.Therefore, at least it can be said that the current epidemic in Japan is still in a controllable state, and large -scale community infections have not occurred.
Secondly, Japan’s disease is very low compared to other developed countries. It has a diseased outlifier rate of more than 10%. Japan is currently less than 1%. Why is it the same age society? It is also a developed countryWoolen cloth?
Third, so far, Japan has mainly relying on the situation that has not taken large -scale compulsory closed measures and achieves low infection diffusion rates and diseases. This is similar to Singapore's anti -epidemic model.
Although the future development cannot predict, so far, Japan's anti -epidemic mode is still effective.The author believes that in general, the self -discipline of Japanese society and the self -cleaning of the people.In fact, the SARS outbreak 17 years ago, Japan is also the country with the lowest mortality in developed countries.The self -discipline of society is largely related to the pressure of the companion in Japanese society.
After discovering the confirmed case, other close contacts will be notified and basically isolated by consciousness.Everyone basically follows the requirements to make an appointment and check the epidemic prevention department.Although there are currently few problems with the above detection, the self -regulation and rules of society have alleviated the risk of medical resource crowding and cross -infection, and avoiding medical collapse of Italy.
We did not see the situation of large -scale hoarding daily products and crazy shopping in Japan, and the social order was stable; there was something that caused everyone to buy toilet paper because of errors, but they were quickly criticized for no reserved and trusted rumors.The self -discipline of Japanese society has actually been proven after the three -one earthquake in 2011.Second, self -cleaning has a lot to do with the usual hygiene habits. For example, the Japanese usually take the initiative to wear masks, wash their hands and rins their noses, and keep talking with people.
Persons who enter and exit the elderly also wear masks, and there are disinfection water at the door.These hygiene habits are not inherent, but the result of family and school education from childhood. These self -cleaning norms have become a consciousness from childhood.Self -discipline plus self -cleaning, and the superposition of factors such as relatively complete medical conditions, let us see at least until this day, Japan is the country with the most effective control of the epidemic in developed countries.
Japanese civilization resistance
Compared with some developed countries, another characteristic of Japanese -style resistance is reflected in the society without stigma or racism.On March 24, at the graduation ceremony of the University of Tokyo, Japan, when the principal delivered a speech, he criticized the country's priority thinking about the virus epidemic in recent years, and clearly supported the medical cooperation dialogue in transnational and cross -regional.Among the student representatives who answered the words, they also invited international students from Wuhan, China who were studying at the University of Tokyo Medical College. In his speech, the student also said that it was impossible to have medicine.
Thinking of the early days of the outbreak of Chinese epidemic, officials of Japan's Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry of Health, and the prejudice message on the Internet on the Internet clearly stated that this was a matter of infringement of human rights, and it was very regrettable.Many primary and secondary schools in Japan notify parents, and should pay attention to avoid discrimination words and deeds.Furthermore, in the early days of the epidemic, the Japanese government and the public supported medical supplies such as masks provided by China and supplemented with ancient poetry, which also showed human warmth.
On February 13th, the second -order Jun Bo of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan's Language Party said that Japan is willing to support the country and spare no effort to provide all help to China to fight against China.EssenceAs of February 13, Japan has raised 120,000 sets of protective clothing.According to reports, when Japan sent five charter aircraft to withdraw overseas Chinese, each time he brought rescue supplies instead of an aircraft.We have not seen mainstream Japanese media say Chinese virus or new coronal virus.
After the World Health Organization announced that the epidemic became a global popularity, Abe said at a press conference that Japan is not a country fighting, but requires close social cooperation.The social editorial of the mainstream media in Japan also talked about the expansion of the infectious disease epidemic in the early 20th century.The society was severely damaged, and the seeds of hatred for subsequent national relations and the outbreak of world wars emphasized the need for rejection of the country's priority and international cooperation.
Thinking of some developed countries believes that the epidemic can help employment opportunities to return to their own public speeches, which obviously reflects the gap.The author believes that these should be acknowledged that these are the performance of civilization and progress in Japanese society, and it is also the result of many multi -cultural symbiotic society in Japanese society and the results of advocating tolerance society.On February 22, at the first press conference after the throne, the Emperor of the Japanese Emperor particularly emphasized the importance of social respect for diversity and tolerance.
The epidemic is still developing, and any conclusive prediction is dangerous.However, from the past experience and the Japanese prevention and control epidemic, Japanese -style epidemic prevention has its own advantages and has achieved civilized epidemic prevention.With Japan's own efforts and international cooperation controlling global epidemic, the negative impact of the extension of the Tokyo Olympic Games can not only be reduced, but also may be a historical event in human history.This is not only the success of Japan, but also the success of the entire world.
(The author is an associate professor of the National Niigata University in Japan)
