Source: Hong Kong 01
Written article: Wu Di
According to the latest data released by the US Department of Labor on April 9, within the three weeks of April 4, the three cities and states have begun to restrict public gathering and ordered the residents to have three in some cases.In the full week, about 16.8 million (3.3 million people from March 15th to 21st, 6.9 million people from March 22-28 and 6.6 million people from March 29th to April 4th) Americans for the first time for the first time).Applying for unemployment benefits, setting a new high historical high.
Compared with historical data, in the 2001 Internet bubble period, the data for the first time of unemployment relief funds for the first week of the week was 475,400, and then the data was 669,000 when the 2008 loan crisis was the worst.The highest historical records recorded were 700,000 a week in 1982 during the fifth capitalist world economic crisis.Fortune (Fortune) posted on April 10 that the real unemployment rate in the United States should have reached 14.7%, and we are experiencing the highest level of unemployment since the era of President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1940.
What is even more terrible is that with the further spread of the crown epidemic in the United States and the further deterioration of the influential economic situation, the number of unemployment of 16.8 million in three weeks is just the beginning.The Federal Reserve economist predicts that the United States will eventually have about 47 million people unemployment, and the unemployment rate will soar to 32.1 %.
In this context, look back at the US $ trillion economic stimulus bill promulgated by the White House in March.According to this bill, the U.S. government will issue 1,200 US dollars cash for individuals with an income of more than 75,000 US dollars in most years. In addition to personal checks, each child will receive $ 500.The cash obtained by individuals with income higher than $ 75,000 has gradually decreased, and people with more than $ 99,000 and couples with more than $ 198,000 have no cash aid MDASH; mdash;In the case of a large number of unemployment, even if each person receives a subsidy of about 1,200 US dollars, it cannot support daily life for a month or two.
In particular, in the third industry that has been hit most severe, there are a large number of Americans in the so -called zero economy, that is, various types of loose workers, and there are no fixed employers. Such jobs also rarely provide insurance and insurance andWelfare.The rise in unemployment and obvious income declines will inevitably hit the US consumption surface.Considering that the vast majority of residents' home epidemic prevention, many consumer activities have been significantly reduced, and these zero workers are facing further layoffs.The vicious cycle has been formed, and it will continue to deteriorate before the end of the epidemic.
Consumption accounts for about 70 % of the US GDP, and is the most important driving force for economic growth.Generally speaking, fiscal policy is more effective than monetary policy. Given cash subsidies to the public are the most effective measures to stimulate demand in fiscal policy.However, in the 2 trillion fiscal stimulus bill, the most important part (about 44 %) will be used to provide US corporate loans. Only 26 % are used for state government resistance and public services, 15 % are used to subsidize the publicLivelihood, another 15 % for expanding unemployment relief.
Just as Trump has reduced taxes to enterprises in 2017, the beneficiaries are mainly the equity holders and creditors of the enterprise. Large loan assistance provided by the enterprise this time will still mainly protect this group.The reason why the largest part of 2 trillion is provided to enterprises is that the lack of a comprehensive public social security system in the United States needs to rely on the impact of enterprises to digest the economic crisis by providing employment.
However, many people have not noticed that in the current bleak economic situation, after obtaining loans, companies will not choose to expand their investment or employment. In the past three weeks, US companies have fired 16.8 million employees to prove this.Essence
In other words, the US economic structure and operational method determines that the US government lack an effective way to boost when facing the economic crisis of the current demand -side gap.2 trillion is the largest relief plan in the history of the United States. This is a way to have no way, but it is also a limited method.
Nowadays, the epidemic has caused consumption to stop, and a large number of posts that rely on consumption to disappear, and the consumption power generated by these positions has been further disappeared; and a large number of people in the United States have limited savings levels, and even in negative assets.People put a lot of wealth into the bond stock market. With the depreciation of the latter, the consumption desire has further reduced.
The United States is the most developed society in the world, but the lives of many citizens are actually as thin as ice, and there is no income for two consecutive weeks.This has the responsibility of the government, the responsibility of society, and the responsibility of the people.The shortcomings of the American socio -economic defects were formed after the year, and they have encountered many crisis many times, but they all have no fear of the past. The government level has formed this kind of water injection to enterprises.Crisis response.
However, the economic crisis caused by the epidemic mainly affects the demand side, which is definitely deadly for the United States and can be described as an economic dilemma of American characteristics.The embarrassment of the US economy will further affect the world and have seriously affected many economies that rely on the US market.
In the end, people can always survive the price of the epidemic, and only hope that after the US government, society and the people have suffered from this difficulty, they can deeply reflect and adjust their structural problems.For yourself, it also creates a more stable, healthier, and more sustainable economic foundation for the world.
