At present, the new coronary virus epidemic is still raging globally, and humans are facing the first non -traditional security world war.To defeat this human enemy, what needs to be global coordinated cooperation, which is difficult to overcome.But unfortunately, while accepting the aid of Chinese epidemic, the United States still does not forget to try to suppress China through various means, including further suppressing Chinese high -tech companies represented by Huawei.This is obviously beyond the category of morality, legal, or economic, but the iconic movement of global hegemonism in the United States.
Midea or upgrade to suppress Huawei, will open the Pandora Box
Reuters reported on March 26 that senior Trump government officials from the National Security Council, the U.S. State Council, the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Commerce have agreed to take new measures, or it will prohibit TSMC and other enterprises.Supply chip and equipment to Huawei.
If this measure is implemented, it will be another substantial upgrade of the U.S. Department of Commerce after May last May and the Huawei global chip supply chain strike.According to reports, the United States intends to adjust the direct product rules: Even if the chip is not developed and designed in the United States, as long as the foreign production line is used, even if only one U.S. device is used, its chip production must be approved by the US government before providing Huawei to provide Huawei withCertain chips.
As we all know, in 2019, the United States continued to suppress Huawei through various means, but the Huawei 5G market orders are still the world's first. Its 2019 performance released on March 31 reached 858.8 billion yuan, which is 19.1%compared to the same period in 2018. Achievements have achieved.Breakthrough again.This may further angered more extreme and morbid measures for American politicians.
On the other hand, the restrictions released by Boston's recent consultation to China will terminate the US Semiconductor Leadership Report that after May last year, the number of medium revenue in the United States in the United States has decreased by 4 % to 9 % after the number of semiconductor companies in the United States ranging from the quarter.Many companies blame the decline in this performance on Sino -US trade frictions that are unilaterally ignited by the United States.Therefore, the United States has so far extended Huawei's temporary general -purpose license for five consecutive times, and it is not difficult to guess the considerations behind this.
Washington Economic and Trade Lawyer Doug Jacobson warns that if the United States adjusts direct product rules at will, the negative impact on American companies will be far greater than Huawei.If China countermeasures, the potential losses of the two companies of Apple and Qualcomm alone will be at least more than 70 billion US dollars per year.The revenue of Gaotong's fiscal year in 2019 was $ 24.7 billion, of which the Chinese region revenue reached 11.6 billion US dollars.If Qualcomm is banned into the Chinese market, it will lose at least 40%of the world's market share.Other American chip manufacturers such as Micron, Broadcom, Qorvo, Skyworks, and TI will also be severely affected.
In fact, China will not be affected too much on a possible new round of sanctions in the United States.For example, 5G devices include Huawei, Samsung, Ericsson, Nokia and other companies. 5G chips include Samsung in South Korea, Taiwan MediaTek (MTK), and China Show.Even if Huawei has been sacrificed for a long time, it is believed that many chip companies will grow up in China and develop and produce products with chip manufacturers in Europe, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan.
But it is worthwhile that once the United States opens this Pandora Box, it may be devastating destruction for the global industrial ecological chain, and it will be unimaginable.
Fighting chess, China has at least 18 tactical advantages
I have always advocated that in the face of the fact that the US strategic community has identified China as the fact that it is the main strategic opponent, neither a hot war between China and the United States or the Cold War, but fight chess.The so -called chess war is to clearly tell the other party's reality and potential strength to help the United States measure the interest relationship, which promotes the recovery of negotiations.
China is now a defensive party. Although it is facing the United States for unprecedented provocations, the Chinese government has always started from the global situation and is very polite and restrained in the United States.However, tolerance does not mean weakness. Defending Huawei is the Shang Ganling of the Sino -US game. China will help Huawei through difficulties.There is no other choice except victory.
If you combine it carefully, we not only have long -term strategic advantages, but also have many reality and potential tactical advantages.When it comes to countermeasures, there are at least 18 tactical choices in China:
The first is the re -export trade.China Customs data shows that in 2018, China's direct export value to the United States was 430 billion U.S. dollars, but the United States insisted that China exports more than 570 billion yuan in the United States.The export of China is a direct export of only $ 130 billion, and the tens of billions of tens of billions of from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are not calculated.Therefore, the US -to -China re -export trade part can be included in the potential tax increase list.
The second is to serve trade.The United States earns nearly $ 100 billion in China, and China only obtains US $ 30 billion in the United States. The United States is a surplus in this regard.For example, half of the audit market in my country was monopolized by the four major US accounting firms, and they could consider reducing their proportions to a certain extent and left to domestic accounting firms.
The third is the Macau gaming industry.A Macau gaming industry license means nearly $ 10 billion a year.Before 1999, the two Macau gaming industry licenses were in the hands of Chinese people. After that, two of them became six, three of which were mastered by US capital.What if they are retracted to other companies to operate?
The fourth is to list the negative list of unreliable companies or individuals in the United States.For example, during the epidemic period, some states members of the state issued improper remarks such as accountability in China. China can choose to cut off the rescue materials of the state unless the relevant personnel apologize.Similarly, for American companies, China can also choose precise countermeasures.
The fifth is the supply chain.China also has monopoly products, such as rare earth.Many years ago, academicians of the Chinese Academy of Sciences have developed new processes, and 17 rare metals are refined from rare earth. China leads the world in rare earth refining technology. In addition, 85%of the basic raw materials in the US pharmaceutical industry are provided by China;The assessment of the US Department of Defense shows that 19 conventional metals rely on China to depend on China more than 50%, with 14 types of more than 30%.
The sixth is the Chinese market.In 2018, the sales of the United States in China in China were more than US $ 380 billion, and China's branches in the United States were more than $ 30 billion.If its flagship industry Apple and general sales are affected, it will inevitably affect the stock market.80%of US companies 'financing relies on the stock market, and 20%relies on banks (90%of Chinese companies' financing rely on banks, only 10%rely on the stock market).According to Americans, the collapse of the Chinese stock market is equivalent to jumping from the second floor, which may stomach, but it is not dangerous; and the collapse of the US stock market is equal to jumping from the 50th floor.
The seventh is to accelerate the sixth edition of the Internet agreement (IPv6).At present, the basic framework is the fourth edition (IPv4), which is completely dominated by the United States, and IPv6 is a balanced dominance in China, the United States and Europe.2020 is the year of the second stage of the action plan. The scale deployment of my country's IPv6 will further improve quality and efficiency, expand the scope, and promote the construction of the next generation of the next generation of high -speed, wide -range, full coverage, and intelligentization. Provide strong support.
The eighth is 5G speed up.Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on promoting 5G to accelerate development, which is a specific measure to implement the development of new infrastructure such as 5G.Speeding up the development of Chinese 5G will not only help the entire communication industry chain to maintain a sustainable lead, but also accelerate the digital transformation of the industry after the epidemic and promote the high -quality development of global economy and society.
The ninth is to expand the scope of the futures market.Last year, Shanghai opened the oil futures market, and Dalian opened iron ore futures. It operated for one year and was very outstanding.Now, coal, natural gas, copper, aluminum and other goods can also open the futures market.
The tenth is to speed up the negotiations of the free trade zone in China and some countries (FTA).As of March 2018, China has signed 16 free trade agreements with 24 countries or regions, and is also negotiating with other trading partners. It can accelerate the process in the future and greatly increase trading partners.
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On December 24, 2019, the China -Japan -Korea Leaders' Meeting was held in Chengdu.Picture from China Daily
The eleventh is to speed up the negotiations of the China -Japan -Korea Free Trade Zone.In 2019, China ’s total GDP was US $ 14.4 trillion, Japan was more than 5 trillion yuan, South Korea was 2 trillion yuan, and the total exceeded US $ 2.14 trillion in the United States.
The twelfth is to accelerate the establishment of a regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP).Except for India, the ten ASEAN countries, coupled with China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, they all signed RCEP as soon as possible.
The thirteenth is that China can start discussing with Japan to join the comprehensive and progressive cross -Pacific partnership agreement (CPTPP).Originally TPP was used to fight against China, but President Trump quit the agreement the next day after he came to power. Japan led CPTPP that 11 countries joined. It has taken effect on December 30, 2018.This is not a chance to China.
The 14th is to accelerate the development of the Mekong River.The Mekong River (known as the Lancang River in China) is connected to China and Southeast Asia. The foundation of the economic development of this area is relatively weak. China, Japan, and India's economic activities on this region will eventually promote the development and integration of regional economy to become regional prosperity and stabilityMake important contributions.
The fifteenth is to accelerate the exchange of RMB currency.At present, my country has signed a bilateral local currency exchange agreement with central banks or currency authorities in 38 countries and regions, with a total amount of 3.67 trillion yuan.There are also many countries who want to swap with China because the renminbi is relatively stable and attractive.
The 16th is to apply a certain percentage of RMB in the future settlement with oil countries.In the past, the dollar was linked to oil and stabilized the US dollar with oil.It should be noted that the United States is no longer an imported country of oil, and only China is currently a major oil importer.China can use market monopoly positions to negotiate with it.On March 31, the State Council approved several measures to support the opening and development of the oil and gas industrial chain of the free trade pilot zone in China (Zhejiang), and proposed that the Zhejiang Free Trade Zone in the nation's first oil trade pilot area must actively promote commodity commodities.Trade RMB valuation and settlement.
The 17th is to accelerate the jumping out of the US dollar settlement system (SWIFT) in terms of settlement.At present, about 85%of the world's trade is settled with US dollars, and Europe, China, and Russia are considering establishing a new settlement system.China should join the other two parties and incorporate India into it.
The eighth is that we have a huge amount of US Treasury bonds and corporate bonds, and have the ability to affect the US stock market and bond market.
Of course, there are still many advantages in China. The above 18 aspects are relatively mature reality and potential advantages. Although they may not be enabled, the Americans must clearly know their existence.
The Chinese government will not sit down, and American politicians should think twice
In the 5G field, due to the selection of wrong spectrums, the United States 5G was greatly lagging behind other areas. The United States did not work hard to catch up, but to attack Huawei pathogenically; in the field of aviation, due to the wrong design of Boeing Max, the accidents caused frequent accidents and the stock price plummeted.If no one buys, will the United States take similar measures to crack down on Airbus?This has caused extensive resonance and discussion in Europe.To be honest, no company in the world can hold back the long -term sanctions of the world's largest power, which also tells that no one can disaster in all companies around the world, and there is a chance.
Huawei has become the Shang Ganling of the Sino -US game. This is not a company, but a country.If the United States continues to suppress Huawei, what it does symbolizes the suppression of China's industrial upgrading, its purpose is to attempt to keep China at the bottom of the industry chain and deny the power of 1.4 billion Chinese people pursuing a happy life.
China has now achieved high Internetization, with more than 850 million netizens.In the Internet era, public opinion is even more important. When the public expresses strong dissatisfaction because the United States restricts the pursuit of the Chinese people's pursuit of a happy life, it is impossible for the Chinese government to take effective countermeasures to win this battle.I advise American politicians to think twice before taking risks to avoid going to China and the United States to go into a comprehensive confrontation.The cliff is not too late!
