Since early March, the number of new coronary virus in Europe and the United States has continued to soar, as if overnight, the epidemic was out of control.Among them, the United States is the most serious.As of 15:00 today, the confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia rose to 24,5373 cases, with 6,095 deaths.This trend has also made the local people's hearts, and even the outside world feels dazzling.People can't help asking: Why did the epidemic in Europe and the United States get out of control?As for this issue, I personally think that it is related to the following reasons.

1. It is related to the uncertainty and incomplete information of the epidemic

First of all, compared to general sanitary services, the occurrence, epidemic and demise of infectious diseases have more uncertainty.This uncertainty is mainly from the prevention and control of infectious diseases, and the incompleteness and asymmetric information.For example, people, even professionals, have a process of gradual understanding of new infectious diseases. This is the incomplete information.This incompleteness determines that people often have difficulty in the pathogenic mechanism of disease (such as the plagorus of the European Black Death in the 14th century, and it is difficult to recognize it until it was discovered in 1894).The path of its spread is not to mention the consequences.

In the joint inspection report of the new type of coronary virus pneumonia (COVID-19) in China-World Health Organization, the World Health Organization and Chinese experts have to admit that there are limitations for existing knowledge.Mechanism and toxicity, infectious, infection, and the effectiveness of the risk factors, monitoring, severe and severe patients of patients, and the effectiveness of prevention and control measures.

It is also this uncertainty that leads to the prevention and control of people in infectious diseases, and it also has a strong uncertainty mdash; mdash; the awareness and judgment of the severity of the problem often determines the direction of people's behavior.For example, when Hokkaido Japan confirmed on February 26, the number of diagnosis reached 63 infected people, and his awareness of the Prime Minister Naoto announced that Hokkaido would enter an emergency.The official who had experience in public health management believes that (Hokkaido) must take measures to suppress the spread of the epidemic.At present, it is the most critical juncture, and it must be ended as soon as possible.

In contrast, as Italy in the European epidemic earthquake, the Italian epidemic report data showed that as of 19:00 on the evening of February 27, the number of diagnosis in the country's major district was 403.The severity of the epidemic is far more than the same period of Hokkaido, but the local politicians hold a completely different judgment from the Suzuki Zhizhi.Although Milan City, the capital of Lunbaidi, has announced that starting from February 25, business places such as bars, cafes, and ballrooms have been prohibited from business after 6 pm, hoping to reduce the nightlife of residents and prevent the spread of the epidemic.However, the ban has just been implemented for less than two days, and the government was forced to protest against the pressure of the residents and announced the cancellation of the ban on February 27.To celebrate the lifting of the curfew, the Democratic Party Chairman of the Italian ruling party, the Democratic Party of the Democratic Party, Nicholas; Nicola Zingaretti even went to Milan to invite several politicians in the party to drink appetizing wine together on the streets, and emphasized that Milan City is very.Safe, the public should go out of the house to restore normal life.

In the United States, it is manifested by the huge differences between the centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Supreme Administrative Organ.Annie Bull, chief deputy director of the United States CDC; Shushate said at a press conference held on February 25: Now, if the outbreak of the epidemic) will happen, it is better to say when it will happen, and the United States will have it.How many people are infected, and how many of them will suffer from severe or cause more complications.Earlier that day, the Director of the CDC State's Immunity and Breathing Disease Center, Nanxi Bull; Misonier also said that the new crown virus will sooner or later spread in the United States.But President Trump was obviously dissatisfied with the above remarks of CDC. He believed that the above remarks could cause panic.In order to reduce the negative impact of CDC officials' speeches, Trump held a press conference on February 26 on February 26, emphasizing that the risk faced by the United States was very low.

In addition, the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases may cause the consequences and have uncertainty.Many times, people may react excessively.For example, in March 2009, people infected with H1N1 viruses in infection in Mexico and the United States. The source of infection was mainly sick pigs and pigs carrying viruses. Those infected with type A H1N1 flu virus were also confirmed to spread the virus.In order to prevent the disease from spreading, countries have taken many measures.However, afterwards, it was generally believed that at that time, governments and people of various countries at that time had suspicion of excessive response, which in turn caused waste of material and human resources, mismatching of resources, and then caused interference in national living and production.

It is the uncertainty and incompleteness of information that makes it difficult for all parties to form a consensus, which hinders all parties that can take practical measures in the short term to block the spread of the epidemic.

2. Conflict between correct medical and political correctness

In an article in February 2020, the British Economist Magazine believes that they have found that the mortality rate of new crown viruses in democratic countries can be freely flowing through the analysis of data.Can urge the government to adjust the epidemic strategy in a timely manner.This view was approved by the US foreign policy magazine.But as the actual situation in Europe and the United States shows today, the facts may not be all.

Professor Wild Bull of Columbia University in the United States; Ian Bull; Lipkin believes that the new crown virus epidemic has a low mortality rate compared to the SARS epidemic, but the transmission is strong and the infectious speed is fast.Some patients can even be contagious without even symptoms, which adds difficulty to prevent control.To this end, Professor Lipin believes that it is still the best way to maintain social distance, wearing masks and rapid detection methods.

China-World Health Organization's new type of coronary virus pneumonia (COVID-19) joint inspection report, in the proposed part of the fourth chapter, repeatedly mentioned that countries should be immediately (for input cases or out-of-epidemic outbound countries)The highest -level emergency response mechanism that has not been affected by the epidemic) to ensure that governments at all levels and the whole society adopt all necessary non -drug intervention measures to block the spread of epidemic.

The so -called non -drug intervention measures mainly include: carry out active active monitoring, quickly discover and immediately diagnose, isolate cases, strictly track and isolate close contact, guide the public to understand and accept the above measures.In addition, it also includes the implementation of stopping group activities, extending holidays, delaying schooling, flexible resumption of work, and peak travel. If necessary, it can even close the channels that affect cities affected by the epidemic.In short, in order to prevent the spread of the epidemic and implement non -drug intervention measures, people's freedom of action will be greatly affected.

What is freedom, according to Hobbes, the correct meaning of the word freedom is that there is no state of external obstacles.Mam pointed out in the book of human nature that there are two treasures in life, one is freedom of thought, and the other is freedom of action.Specific to the freedom of action, the focus of focus is on action. Whether a person's action is free is whether he can do anything he wants to do.When implementing non -medicinal intervention measures, people cannot go to the street, cannot travel, and cannot conduct group rally activities such as political assembly hell; Hello;People with free movement.At this time, epidemic prevention measures and the freedom of citizens are in a state of contradiction and conflict.It is difficult for people to understand it as a special means to control the epidemic as soon as possible to restore social and economic order as soon as possible, so as to ensure their personal rights and let them truly enjoy free measures.People are more willing to understand it as the offending and deprivation of their citizen rights.

In addition, freedom has always been regarded as the most basic and effective means to promote economic growth, and practice also proves this.The government was not willing to expand the problem before the severity of the problem was exposed before the seriousness of the problem.Because this not only involves the government's financial resources and material resources, but also related to local economic development.As far as the government is concerned, once the area under its jurisdiction is promoted to the epidemic area, then the first is the transportation in the area under its jurisdiction., Accommodation, catering, tourism and other industries will be greatly impacted.Based on this, the government is often inclined to give people this freedom, in order to promote economic growth through the freedom of people's actions.

Third, globalization and personnel flow

The characteristics of globalization are: large -scale international flows of commodities, personnel and services, and the interconnection and dependence between the country and the country are more enhanced.This enables the source or virus to easily spread from one country to another, thereby expanding the threat of infectious diseases to the entire international community.Under the global integration, it is difficult for countries to ban the connection with other countries.The population flow undoubtedly increased the chance of human contact, and then accelerated the spread of the epidemic in time, and broadened the scope of the spread of the epidemic.

Fourth, despise the epidemic

Of course, in addition, there may be the pride and prejudice caused by the pride and prejudice caused by the Japanese deputy prime minister Makotaro.At the Meeting of the Financial and Financial Committee of the Japan House of Representatives on March 24, the National Democratic Democratic MP Jiliang State mentioned that in this new crown virus epidemic, can Japan propose to support the support of Italy and Spain under the framework of the 20th National Group (G20) and other frameworks.Founded developed countries?Masheng responded: At the end of February, at the G20 Treasury Secretary and Central Bank President's meeting held at the end of February, I said that.But there was no reaction at all.Masheng said that in Europe that we thought we had no infection, and the epidemic had nothing to do with us.That's the disease of the yellow race, not our disease.Of course, the reason why it is more likely is that experts and politicians in European and American countries simply compare the new crown virus epidemic in the early days of the global epidemic situation, and then the new crown virus is the same as the SARS virus.And then lead to contempt.

The author believes that the combination of these factors has led to serious out of control of the Western epidemic.More importantly, the above factors will still exist in Europe and the United States to a certain extent. It is foreseeable that in the future, the epidemic in Europe and the United States is still difficult to optimistic.Of course, in addition to Europe and the United States, the new crown epidemic situation is to adjust the response measures in a timely manner, and it also needs the consensus of countries around the world.

(Note: The author is the vice chairman of the Guangdong Provincial Society, a special researcher at the Southern Governance Research Institute of Guangzhou University. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.