Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
Economic Daily News
The Trump administration may take new measures to restrict the global supply of chips to Huawei.This new rule is that foreign companies using US chip manufacturing equipment need to obtain US permission to provide a specific chip to Huawei.It is generally believed that the main purpose of the United States' new measures is to limit the supply of Taipower to Huawei.It is unclear whether Trump will agree with this adjustment, but it is widely involved and has attracted global attention.
In fact, since 2018, the Trump administration has actively used the risk of security and national security to lobby telecommunications industry and friendly countries to abandon Huawei products.The business cooperation relationship has changed, and so far most markets are still open to Huawei.
In this situation, the U.S. Department of Commerce included Huawei into the entity list of controlling output in May 2019, which directly regulates the technology and goods of more than 25%of the US technology content.However, many American companies have diluted the proportion of technological content in the United States through overseas foundry and other methods to avoid the restrictions of the entity list.At present, the results of the prohibition are not effective. Recently, the market is rumored that the US government will plan more aggressive planning: First, the US technical content standards are reduced from 25%to 10%; the second will quote the foreign direct product rules in the export control regulations.The products produced by the use of American manufacturing equipment are considered as direct products produced by American technology. It must be obtained first to provide products to Huawei.
If the first method is taken, the US technology content is reduced to 10%. The market rumor that TSMC can still supply Huawei for self -assessment.Not big.
If the second means are taken to quote foreign direct product rules to prohibit systems, many devices from TSMC have many devices from American manufacturers, such as Applied Materials, Lam Research, Kelle, etc.Replaced by other countries such as Dutch ASML, evaluating TSMC may not be able to produce chips required by Huawei.Because the vast majority of chips required by Huawei's production are supplied by TSMC, and it is difficult to have a source of replacement, the US government can achieve the purpose of completely hindering Huawei development.
If this prohibited measure is true, due to the leading position of many Netcom products in Huawei, its mobile phone shipments reached 240 million units in 2019, and the market share of about 18%.The equipment market share is about 35%.Once all operators who use US semiconductor equipment to produce chips, such as TSMC, Samsung, etc., need to obtain a license to supply Huawei. With such a large -scale demand in Huawei, these operators will definitely reduce orders for US semiconductor equipment vendors. In the end, in the endIt also harms the interests of the United States.
The vacancies that Huawei cannot ship. Theoretically, if it can be made up by other competitors, it may greatly reduce the impact on the global industrial chain.For example, mobile phones can be replaced by Apple, Samsung (overseas market) and other land brands (in Chinese markets), but the territory of the upstream supply chain will be reshuffled.
However, in terms of base platforms, although there are still other options such as Nokia, Ericsson, and Samsung in the market, due to compatibility issues, and Huawei's equipment is much lower than the opponent, the United States has strengthened the ban. The short and medium term is very in the short period.It is possible to postpone the development process of the global 5G network, and connects to drag down the development of 5G business opportunities that was originally optimistic, including the market that the original US chip industry can eat.
As for the impact on the Taiwan industry chain, Huawei has an estimated amount of more than 16 billion US dollars in the annual purchase amount of Taiwanese industry, and most of the procurement items are high -end products, and the profit is better. Other competitors may not give the same level and the amount andValue, and if Samsung, who has always purchased Samsung in South Korea's local components, will be more optimistic.
The US government's prohibition of Huawei is still discussing and may be dynamically adjusted at any time. Before the situation is clear, Taiwanese industry players must be particularly cautious in the corresponding strategy. In addition to closely observing the development of the incident, they should be prepared to ensure that the technical content and the manufacturing process are in line with the manufacturing process.Specifications; and if Huawei has caused the loss caused by the impact, it also needs to think about the way of response in advance; in the long run, Huawei cases also remind us that the establishment of independent technology is the fundamental way of the healthy development of the industry.
